Ah, I stand corrected, thanks. If the UK electorate genuinely regret choosing to leave then I expect the Lib Dems will score hugely in the next UK general election. They seem to be the only established unequivocal anti-Brexit party apart from the SNP. Popcorn politics at its best.
WHats the strategy in calling an election for BJ?
- Thread starter zxcvbnm
- Start date
elacsaplau
Registered User
- Messages
- 892
Absolutely Purple,
And just to add - at election time - the public are more than happy to reward politicians that lie to them and punish those that don't! Added to that, there are constituencies in England were, literally, a dead goat with a Tory rosette would get elected and in the marginal constituencies, the crude appeal to very base instincts coupled with a moron of a Labour leader will probably be enough for a Tory victory.
And just to add - at election time - the public are more than happy to reward politicians that lie to them and punish those that don't! Added to that, there are constituencies in England were, literally, a dead goat with a Tory rosette would get elected and in the marginal constituencies, the crude appeal to very base instincts coupled with a moron of a Labour leader will probably be enough for a Tory victory.
Point of order. The goat would have to be alive (see earlier hamster comments). In fairness, the same is true of many Labour constituencies also.
Duke of Marmalade
Registered User
- Messages
- 4,596
Boris just received a big election boost - he is a groper. Remember how it got his pal The Donald into the White House
Ominous!
I think it boils down to whether the UK voting public are more sick of (a) the Conservatives and their Brexit antics or (b) Brexit and want it over with.
Anything other than a Conservative majority means more delay and more uncertainty and re-negotiation of the withdrawal agreement.
A Conservative majority is a mandate to exit on the basis of the deal just agreed (and ignore the DUP).
I think, this is just a guess, that it's (b) and so a Conservative majority.
Duke of Marmalade
Registered User
- Messages
- 4,596
I expect Bojo to be dead in a ditch this Friday, if one can trust him
I expect Bojo to be dead in a ditch this Friday, if one can trust him
Saturday is the Day of the Dead. So I expect resurrection by Sunday.
Every paper is telling us that this UK election will be the most difficult to forecast. The IT has 6 possible results. They are like sports channels telling us about a MASSIVE weekend of sport evert second weekend. It's all hype and nonsense to interest the jaded public.
Here are some simple predictions.
1. The Tories will win the most seats.
2. Labour will win the second most seats.
3. The SNP will win the third most seats.
4. The Lib Dems will win fourth most seats.
The only issue in the election is whether the Tories will win an overall majority. They will lose seats in Scotland to the SNP, they will lose seats in the South of England to the Lib Dems. Although these two things are certainties, they are small certainties in total that's only 20 seats lost for the Tories.
Will the Tories take seats from Labour in leaving voting seats in the Midlands and North. 60% of labour seats voted leave, thats a lot of seats, more than 150.
This might happen en masse and the Tories win a thumping majority, or it may not happen at all and there will be no overall majority in parliament.
I think this is all to play for in the campaign. If the coverage is all about Brexit, then I think the Tories will sweep the board, lets get Brexit done is a winning line, if the NHS, austerity etc. etc. dominate the headlines then Boris will struggle to replace his losses in Scotland and to the Lib Dems.
Now isn't this more fun than Liverpool and Spurs
They’re targeting Labour seats in constituencies that voted Leave.
I get the impression that Brexit is bigger than the Brexit Party. They’d rather Brexit happen than get elected themselves.
They claimed that they would run candidate in all seats and I think that they will come near to that.
Recently they take votes almost exclusively from the Tories. Look at this graphic, Brexit party up Tories down, Tories back up brexit party down. The dotted line is the day Johnson became PM. From the Tory point of view he was a brilliant choice, as a campaigner if not as PM.
The labour / Lib Den relationship is similar though not as strong.
Duke of Marmalade
Registered User
- Messages
- 4,596
Conservative majority now 1.63 fairly strong favourite with Betfair (the Duke has an insurance bet at 2.08). Combination of Boris/Dominic playing a blinder and Corbyn/Abbot/McDonnell etc. a walking disaster.
If Corbyn wanted to act in the best interests of the labour party, he'd resign as leader right now. Put almost anyone else as party leader and there would be conservative remainers who would be prepared to vote labour to try and get a second referendum. With Corbyn in place, they won't do it.
Unless it's a "pure" Labour Party adhering to his principles I think he sees it as a Tory trojan horse.
And he has always been ambivalent about the EU.
As far as he's concerned the best interests of the Labour Party are only served by a Corbyn platform.
He'd prefers a "pure" Labour Party in opposition and the UK out of the EU; then a sullied Labour Party in government and in the EU led by a Blairite.
(Not saying he's correct, just that's his perspective)
For some reason I cannot get my head around the way odds are quoted. Is this 1.63 the same as the 4/7 Paddy Power is offering. Calculated as 1+ (4/(7+4)).
The probability of a Tory majority has to be less than one. So I think the above suggests that, in the bookmakers opinion, the probability of a Tory majority is 0.63. Is that correct.
If so, in my opinion, the bookmakers are too generous to the Tories