WHats the strategy in calling an election for BJ?

cremeegg said:
For some reason I cannot get my head around the way odds are quoted. Is this 1.63 the same as the 4/7 Paddy Power is offering. Calculated as 1+ (4/(7+4)).

The probability of a Tory majority has to be less than one. So I think the above suggests that, in the bookmakers opinion, the probability of a Tory majority is 0.63. Is that correct.

If so, in my opinion, the bookmakers are too generous to the Tories
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1.63 is .63/1; 4/7 is .57/1, similar but, as usual, Betfair slighty better odds
1.63 = 100/1.63 = 61% chance
4/7 = 700/11 = 64% chance

Probably the best way to see Betfair quotes is to regard the price of each event as 1 and the Betfair quote is what the event will pay if it comes up. Thus Betfair is 1.63 Buy and 1.65 Lay, meaning if you buy the event for 1 and it comes up you get 1.63 i.e. a profit of .63 and if you Lay (sell) it for 1 and it comes up you will pay the buyer 1.65 i.e. a loss of .65
 
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Farage and his Brexit Party have absolutely capitulated. They have given free reign to Tories in Tory held seats to shore up votes for the "second worse deal of all time".

I dont see any point for their existence now. They will split the Leave vote from disenchanted Labour supporters in Labour seats, ensuring Labour returns.

Farage should move aside altogether now, and the Brexit party too. He has figured that no-deal, clean break Brexit, will never happen. So the only deal in town is Boris's "its a great deal for NI - they get to stay in SM and CU":oops: deal which will threaten the future of the UK.
 
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I don’t see this as a capitulation at all. Their main aim is getting Brexit over the line.
In the world of Real Politik it’s a choice between no Brexit or a “second worse deal of all time”.
If the Conservatives get a majority, Brexit will happen, either on 01/01/2020 or 01/02/2020.
If Labour gets in there will be another referendum, eventually, and that throws the cat amongst the pigeons.

By giving free reign to the Tories in those 317 constituencies they enhance the chances of a Brexit-voting MP being elected.
There’s a good chance of the Tories getting at least 295 Leaver MPs elected.
By targeting Labour seats in <300 constituencies where the electorate are Leavers but the MP is a Remainer, they have a great chance of winning seats.
Diehard Labour voters that are Leavers will never vote Tory. Not even once. But by “lending their votes” to Farage just this once, they’ll get Brexit over the line.
If those aforementioned 295 Tory Leavers get elected, only another 30 or so Leavers are needed. About 10 per cent of the Brexit Party candidates being elected will see this whole Brexit debacle put to bed forever.
 
WolfeTone said:
...deal which will threaten the future of the UK.
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You may be confusing the BP with the DUP here?

The Brexit Party is about “Brexit”.
The Democratic Unionist Party is about “The Union”.

Farage and Co would gladly damage the Union to see Brexit, any Brexit, happen.

BTW, say this whole Brexit malarkey leads to a Border Poll in de north.
And the electorate choose to leave the UK.
Will there be a poll here too? A United Ireland poll? And what happens if it is rejected. Will NI become a sovereign nation?
 
Drakon said:
Their main aim is getting Brexit over the line.
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Yes, but not just any Brexit. Otherwise they could have backed Teresa Mays WA.
Farage has labelled Johnsons deal as "Brexit in name only" and the second worse deal of all time.
If the objective is to get Brexit over the line, then they should stand aside altogether.
 
Drakon said:
By targeting Labour seats in <300 constituencies where the electorate are Leavers but the MP is a Remainer, they have a great chance of winning seats.
Diehard Labour voters that are Leavers will never vote Tory. Not even once. But by “lending their votes” to Farage just this once, they’ll get Brexit over the line.
If those aforementioned 295 Tory Leavers get elected, only another 30 or so Leavers are needed. About 10 per cent of the Brexit Party candidates being elected will see this whole Brexit debacle put to bed forever.
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There is no doubt NF's decision has improved the Tory position as the betting shows, but not as dramatically as might have been expected.

The BP are odds on not to win a single seat. 20/1 against double figures. There is even an argument that BP running in Labour seats could be counterproductive in that the Tories might see a chance to reverse the surprise 2017 win for Labour in some marginals but could have that thwarted by the BP vote.
NF is playing a canny game in his own self interest. He saw a real danger that he would be seen as the villain of the piece if he resulted in a hung parliament and his cozy relationship with The Donald and Boris would be in smithereens. Now he can envisage a situation where Boris just gets over the line. I can just picture the tweet from The Donald. "Well done Boris and congratulations Nigel for following my advice".

This will not be a comfortable place for Boris. Because no, the Brexit debacle is certainly not put to bed forever. It is just beginning and with everything requiring the stamp of approval from The Donald and Nigel he will be just as hamstrung as Theresa May before him.
BTW under the GFA a Border poll must take part in both parts of the island.
 
In case anyone is in any doubt, here is what the Brexit Party says on its website about BJ's deal

[broken link removed]

"The Prime Minister's deal is not a proper Brexit".
"...that reheats 95per cent of Theresa May's deal".
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
The BP are odds on not to win a single seat. 20/1 against double figures.
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Apples Jade went off at 1/4 in the Lismullen Hurdle in Navan at Sunday, seeking a three-in-a-row in that race. She lost. The bookies/exchanges aren’t always right.

After 22:00 on 23/06/2016 they had Leave at 10/1 to win that referendum.
 
Drakon said:
After 22:00 on 23/06/2016 they had Leave at 10/1 to win that referendum.
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Yep, after the Sunderland result I helped myself to a bit of 8/1 on Betfair :)
There is no way the BP will get 30 seats - 1 or 2 at most. But that does not mean they can't influence the make up of the next UK parliament.
 
Drakon said:
BTW, say this whole Brexit malarkey leads to a Border Poll in de north.
And the electorate choose to leave the UK.
Will there be a poll here too? A United Ireland poll? And what happens if it is rejected. Will NI become a sovereign nation?
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That's the nightmare scenario for me; Norn-Ireland getting foisted on us.
 
Purple said:
That's the nightmare scenario for me; Norn-Ireland getting foisted on us.
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RTÉ had a special broadcast about it a couple of years ago. It was only a straw poll but most in the south said they’d vote in favour of it.
However, in the second poll where they were informed that it would involve austerity and recession a là the Troika days, 75% voted against.
 
The irony is that there’s only ever been a United Ireland under Saxon/English/British rule.
Before they arrived here it was a very divided island.
 
Drakon said:
The irony is that there’s only ever been a United Ireland under Saxon/English/British rule.
Before they arrived here it was a very divided island.
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We had a High King system, a single language and, crucially, a single legal system. We were as much a nation as any other place in the world. The Nation State is a relatively recent creation.
 
Drakon said:
However, in the second poll where they were informed that it would involve austerity and recession a là the Troika days, 75% voted against.
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It would be far worse than that. The cost would be €11 billion a year, every year, along with terrorism from Unionist groups and the general poison of tribalism, racism, bigotry and intolerance that is so pervasive all over Northern Ireland.
 
Purple said:
We had a High King system, a single language and, crucially, a single legal system. We were as much a nation as any other place in the world. The Nation State is a relatively recent creation.
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What?-Ireland had clans which spent a lot of time stealing cattle, taking slaves and generally fighting with each other.
The only time it was united was in the U.K. but the fightin Oirish with their bigotry, narrow nationalism, coupled with an inferior culture left the U.K. and set up a big council known as the Dail. A priest ridden backwater which specialised in burning homes, religious discrimination against other denominations as well as killings might confirm the view of the self deceptive South Irish who major exports have been child molesters and drunks.
 
Royanne said:
What?-Ireland had clans which spent a lot of time stealing cattle, taking slaves and generally fighting with each other.
The only time it was united was in the U.K. but the fightin Oirish with their bigotry, narrow nationalism, coupled with an inferior culture left the U.K. and set up a big council known as the Dail. A priest ridden backwater which specialised in burning homes, religious discrimination against other denominations as well as killings might confirm the view of the self deceptive South Irish who major exports have been child molesters and drunks.
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Love it!
We did help the UK sort out it's last civil war though, even when it spilled over into our country.
So show a little gratitude. ;)
I do agree that by the time the English invaded Ireland England was a united country though it was united under their French conquerors. The english always knew to tug the forelock to their masters so accepted their status as a conquered people quite readily. In fairness it was the making of them as a nation. It does make Brexit quite ironic though.

The strange thing about immigration to Britain from here is that when an Irish person moves to the UK the average IQ of both countries goes up.
 
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