Oh, the irony. May as well, squeeze the last out of EU membership.
WHats the strategy in calling an election for BJ?
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Oh, the irony. May as well, squeeze the last out of EU membership.
I think you might have missed the joke!
And Boris' pitch to the people rolls on. Despite the remoaners, despite Parliament, despite the Courts, Boris delivers Brexit.
He started 10 points ahead of Labour in the polls, he was 15 points ahead recently, I bet he goes further ahead after this.
Whether Brexit actually happens on 31st October Boris will walk the election.
He started 10 points ahead of Labour in the polls, he was 15 points ahead recently, I bet he goes further ahead after this.
Whether Brexit actually happens on 31st October Boris will walk the election.
Yeah just another sign of the 'establishment' keeping the people down...….Always said Boris can't lose this no matter what he does. The UK, Ireland and Europe will lose but Boris will be ok.... And he will always have others to blame...
I dont follow you there.
If the people elect Boris with a thumping majority at the next election, as I suspect they will, the people can blame whoever they like, Europe, Ireland, Immigrants, the Media, but it will be no ones fault but their own.
Because that is how it will be spun and it will work. The Supreme Court were just full of remainers (all 11 of them). They were all biased. They were all corrupt. There is a conspiracy. It all sounds ridiculous but after spending some time in the Uk recently, don't under estimate how messed up it has become. Most of the media have taken sides and people are only reading media that matches what they think anyway so they are just re-enforcing their own beliefs. You will never convince a daily mail reader that the UK is not under attack from anti-democratic forces......
If and when the UK leaves, there is going to be a crash in the UK. The people are going to want to blame someone and now Boris has lined up everyone else to take the fall....
Duke of Marmalade
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You might be right cremeegg as you were on The Donald. All the same Theresa May didn't get a majority with 42% of the vote in 2017 and Boris is currently standing at 32%. The weird FPP system can produce bizarre outcomes but I wonder has a majority ever been won on 32% of the vote. Anyway Betfair go 2/1 against an overall majority for Boris and if you really are that confident why not have a piece of 4/1 against more than 340 seats?
I know!!!
Trying to keep up with the various commentators... It was the unanimous verdict that was the big put down
David Allen Green... Who I mentioned... Has been very good
I got pretty good odds on no Brexit by end Oct and end of year about 6 weeks ago... Bit early to choose numbers on GE at this point. But if you want a long odds punt I'd check out number of seats for Lib Dems... Not a majority but I'd look at the long end
Don't forget their Soviet style leader.
The next UK general election in will be a 4 horse race in England. Cons, Lab, Lib Dems, Brexit party will all poll in excess of 10%, even the greens may make an impact.
This is something new for them and none of the UK commentators has the slightest idea how this will work out. Unless perhaps the FT brings Ganan Janesh back from the US.
The betting indicates that the vote split may look something like this, Cons 35%, Lab 25%, Lib Dems 24%, Brexit 10%.
I suspect that Boris may successfully copper fasten his position as the Brexit champion and so break the Brexit party, but Farage may yet find a way to counter this, (he did well today, "the honourable thing is for Boris to resign") the campaign will tell.
I can see the remainer drift away from labour accelerating, though the dislike of the Lib Dems of the young educated is still strong. Swinson's personality on the campaign may make or break them.
Then the issue of how % will translate into seats. The election is straight FPTP, so whoever is ahead on the first count wins, there is no second count. If Little Worsted on the Weade (loved that, thanks Duke) votes Cons 27%, Lab 25%, Lib Dems 24%, Brexit 18%. The Tories take the seat and everyone else goes home.
The broad mass of reasonable middle England, who think "we had a referendum and we voted for brexit now we should follow through" will vote Tory. This will include many who voted remain. All the goings on are just noise, people trying to frustrate the referendum result. Boris no longer even needs to deliver Brexit by 31st Oct to be the Brexit champion, no one can deny he has tried, (before anyone says he frustrated TMs efforts to deliver Brexit, that doesn't fit on a bus and so is irrelevant, anyway that was centuries ago).
Lots of Labour support will melt away for lots of obvious reasons. People who want Brexit, people who want Remain, people who don't like the infighting, people who have grown tired of Corbyn. (Actually although I would be a total remainer, I like Corbyn's approach, in an ideal world he could sell it to the public, revoking Art 50 could cause serious unrest.)
The regional (or even local) distribution of the vote is the crucial issue and this is not well examined.
For what its worth I think that the big shift will be Labour losses in London and the university cities. They will loose seats here. Even though the Labour votes may go to Lib Dems or Greens the seats may well go to the Tories. Where we had Lab 50% Tories 40%, Lib Dems/Others 10% we may get Tories 40%, Lab 35% Lib Dems/Others 25%
The second change I see is working class Labour voters in the north will move to the Brexit Party and this will let the Cons win seats where they have not previously been competitive.
Seats: the Tories will a greater % of seats than their % of the vote, this is inevitable under the FPTP, but it will work more effectively for the Tories than Labour. Labour will also get above their % but the regional distribution of votes will deliver the Tories a bigger increase in seat numbers over their vote share than Labour..
The Lib Dems will get 35 seats but that's not a break through. The SNP will get more, maybe as many as 50.
The Brexit Party will get less than 10 seats.
Final result, no overall majority, no Lab, Lib Dem, SNP coalition, even if they get the numbers they won't do the deal. Another election within the year.
If anyone wants a bet 8/13 on the Brexit party to take one or more seats seems like a deal.
This is something new for them and none of the UK commentators has the slightest idea how this will work out. Unless perhaps the FT brings Ganan Janesh back from the US.
The betting indicates that the vote split may look something like this, Cons 35%, Lab 25%, Lib Dems 24%, Brexit 10%.
I suspect that Boris may successfully copper fasten his position as the Brexit champion and so break the Brexit party, but Farage may yet find a way to counter this, (he did well today, "the honourable thing is for Boris to resign") the campaign will tell.
I can see the remainer drift away from labour accelerating, though the dislike of the Lib Dems of the young educated is still strong. Swinson's personality on the campaign may make or break them.
Then the issue of how % will translate into seats. The election is straight FPTP, so whoever is ahead on the first count wins, there is no second count. If Little Worsted on the Weade (loved that, thanks Duke) votes Cons 27%, Lab 25%, Lib Dems 24%, Brexit 18%. The Tories take the seat and everyone else goes home.
The broad mass of reasonable middle England, who think "we had a referendum and we voted for brexit now we should follow through" will vote Tory. This will include many who voted remain. All the goings on are just noise, people trying to frustrate the referendum result. Boris no longer even needs to deliver Brexit by 31st Oct to be the Brexit champion, no one can deny he has tried, (before anyone says he frustrated TMs efforts to deliver Brexit, that doesn't fit on a bus and so is irrelevant, anyway that was centuries ago).
Lots of Labour support will melt away for lots of obvious reasons. People who want Brexit, people who want Remain, people who don't like the infighting, people who have grown tired of Corbyn. (Actually although I would be a total remainer, I like Corbyn's approach, in an ideal world he could sell it to the public, revoking Art 50 could cause serious unrest.)
The regional (or even local) distribution of the vote is the crucial issue and this is not well examined.
For what its worth I think that the big shift will be Labour losses in London and the university cities. They will loose seats here. Even though the Labour votes may go to Lib Dems or Greens the seats may well go to the Tories. Where we had Lab 50% Tories 40%, Lib Dems/Others 10% we may get Tories 40%, Lab 35% Lib Dems/Others 25%
The second change I see is working class Labour voters in the north will move to the Brexit Party and this will let the Cons win seats where they have not previously been competitive.
Seats: the Tories will a greater % of seats than their % of the vote, this is inevitable under the FPTP, but it will work more effectively for the Tories than Labour. Labour will also get above their % but the regional distribution of votes will deliver the Tories a bigger increase in seat numbers over their vote share than Labour..
The Lib Dems will get 35 seats but that's not a break through. The SNP will get more, maybe as many as 50.
The Brexit Party will get less than 10 seats.
Final result, no overall majority, no Lab, Lib Dem, SNP coalition, even if they get the numbers they won't do the deal. Another election within the year.
If anyone wants a bet 8/13 on the Brexit party to take one or more seats seems like a deal.
Duke of Marmalade
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Great stuff cremeegg. The main thing is can we make money on this. 8/13 isn’t very appetizing
Aye, but at this stage I’d believe anything, especially anything contradictory.
Duke of Marmalade
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Drakon, do you think the SNP are a factor in England? Maybe you should have read the whole post to see that cremeegg did consider the SNP.
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elacsaplau
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I watched both Michael Gove and the Boris at the despatch box yesterday. Depressing yet compelling viewing. In my opinion, they were both absolute disgraces. The problem is, much like the idiot in the U.S., there's a significant chance that their depravity will be rewarded by the electorate who invariably get the politicians they deserve.
dereko1969
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Wow, way to miss the point of the post @Drakon! @cremedgg's point that those 4 parties will all poll more than 10% is very likely to be true.
The FPTP system skews the impact of this in all the individual constituencies, the Lib Dems will win Tory seats in the South West, Labour seats in London and South West. Brexit Party may well win seats from Labour in Wales, NE England, Midlands and South East. Tories will benefit from Brexit taking Labour votes in the North East and Midlands too. Labour may win some seats due to similar impacts on Tories losing votes to Brexit party.
We're not in Kansas anymore that's for sure.
The FPTP system skews the impact of this in all the individual constituencies, the Lib Dems will win Tory seats in the South West, Labour seats in London and South West. Brexit Party may well win seats from Labour in Wales, NE England, Midlands and South East. Tories will benefit from Brexit taking Labour votes in the North East and Midlands too. Labour may win some seats due to similar impacts on Tories losing votes to Brexit party.
We're not in Kansas anymore that's for sure.
Early Riser
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Except they weren't - they were in opposition.
Duke of Marmalade
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Exactly. David Cameron promised a ref in the 2015 GE, expecting that he would be continuing the Lib/Dem coalition and therefore saved from having to keep that promise. As it happened he won a surprise albeit thin majority and decided to quickly get his promise out of the way - and the rest is history.