Level 5 Countrywide from Thursday 22 October

EmmDee said:
The "fact" you quoted about hospitalisations were out of context and incorrectly compared to current numbers (comparing total versus a point in time). That was pointed out to you and you then changed to "deaths are the real metric".

Your thesis is that this is no worse than the flu of 2017 / 2018. Leaving aside the medical differences, that is incorrect no matter what measure you pick. To pick the "real metric" - total deaths during that flu season was 255 according to the link you provided. Up to yesterday, the number for Covid was 1,868. Total ICU cases during that flu season was 191 - far less than with Covid. Total notified cases was 11,889 versus >53k (though more testing will lead to more know cases).

So why not go find a fact that proves your thesis
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I'm sorry but that's just not true, the data is widely available on this. I'm not getting into the trenches on this as I don't have the time, energy or interest in fighting anonymous people in trenches but suffice to say that we weren't actively looking for people with flu virus in 2018 by conducting 100,000 tests per week nor were distinguishing between "with" or "of" flu or documenting the positivity rate, IFR, R rate, cases, nor did we redefine what an ICU case was or what a Flu case was.

Leaving all that aside as I doubt that any facts or data I present will convince you otherwise. The most basic fact of all is that very few people are dying from COVID, this is not the killer virus we led to believe and we now know that lockdown and restrictions have little to no impact on this virus. Trying to control the virus is like trying to control or legislate which way the wind blows. You cannot find any correlation between the severity of a lockdown and the following result, it doesn't exist. Yes some people will and have died (unfortunate but not unexpected), but the vast majority will not - which is a good thing because it seems that posters like yourself genuinely can't see the situation with a larger sense of perspective anymore.

Maybe it's because you're (all) so invested in your online position, maybe it's because you've been overwhelmed with so much information and negativity on this topic in the media that it's understandably hard to see anything else. The hyper-focus on the increasing "cases" count is a perfect example. Yes cases are going up, because we are testing more thoroughly on mostly healthy people, but that tells us nothing of the outcomes or recovery in the majority of those cases. A more realistic message would be that there is a virus in the wild that may have serious - or fatal - consequences to a very small percentage of the population. However, overall most people will not contract it, or if they do the effects will be temporary and not severe. Again, people ARE going to die from this. It's unavoidable but it's also not realistic or practical to impose blanket disproportionate restrictions on the whole population to try to protect a small percentage of the most vulnerable by bulldozing legislation through the Oireachtas without reflection, scrutiny or debate which is an affront to our basic democratic procedures and to the duty of our elected representatives. These restrictions give wide ranging powers to the Minister for Health to make regulations restricting our rights including our rights to move freely, our rights to meet with others, and to enjoy a private and family life, to organise events, and to earn a living.

But on our tombstone it will say “We followed the science.”
 
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One stat that I don't see published and that I feel would be useful is the daily average number of close contacts for confirmed cases. Given that we all are the answer as the ad says, it would be good to publish how we all are behaving. Only if the number of close contacts drops do we have a chance of getting control of this virus. They could even start by just using the figures from their app.
 
The number of people being tested has increased 2 fold since mid April when we reached our previous peek. The number of confirmed cases is slightly higher. The number of people dying per 1000 diagnosed has fallen by more than 90%. The statistics linked in my previous post explain this. It is without question that this disease is far less deadly that was first feared.

The most concerning thing for me is the inability of our highly funded healthcare system to react to this issue in a suitable way. That structural incompetence is probably going to cause the most deaths as a result of the pandemic, both from Covid and non-Covid issues.
 
Purple said:
The number of people being tested has increased 2 fold since mid April when we reached our previous peek. The number of confirmed cases is slightly higher. The number of people dying per 1000 diagnosed has fallen by more than 90%. The statistics linked in my previous post explain this. It is without question that this disease is far less deadly that was first feared.
The most concerning thing for me is the inability of our highly funded healthcare system to react to this issue in a suitable way. That structural incompetence is probably going to cause the most deaths as a result of the pandemic, both from Covid and non-Covid issues.
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My personal opinion is that this current lockdown phase is mis-judged.
This seems to be the lockdown phase with the capacity to be most damaging to the economy for least reduction in cases. It's not sustainable.
A shorter real lockdown or a proper run of Level 3 with actual enforcement this time would seem to be more tolerable \ sustainable to me.

When considering deaths, the virus has though, to some extent been "kept in its box" with the restrictions, and with the extra precautions we imagine vulnerable people have taken voluntarily over and above this.
How much of the reduction in number of people dying per 1000 is down to the demographic shift in the cases, versus better treatments \ hospital infection control.
From a healthcare perspective, it is not just the number of people dying, it is the number of people this can potentially put into ICU.
Our health service has done its job in terms of saving those who could be saved - that does not seem to the case for the US where 40% of deaths were under 75.
It did not do its job in terms of protecting those most at risk in nursing homes.

There is also the hypothesis that restrictions such as masks and distancing means that the exposure of viral load is less, meaning more milder \\ asymptomatic cases than in Spring.
There is alternative hypothesis that virus has mutated to a more infectious but less severe form.
Or that there is a seasonality to this virus to do with cold \ vitamin D and it will hit hard again in winter.
 
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odyssey06 said:
From a healthcare perspective, it is not just the number of people dying, it is the number of people this can potentially put into ICU.
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Yes, and in that the HSE ,which is everyone who works for it including all the doctors, nurses, administrators and managers within the healthcare system rather than some abstract concept, has failed utterly. Despite the vast funding they receive they still can't add a meaningful amount of ICU beds and so we go into a level 5 lockdown.
odyssey06 said:
Our health service has done its job in terms of saving those who could be saved - that does not seem to the case for the US where 40% of deaths were under 75.
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There are lots of reasons, from access to insurance and ethnicity and, most of all, obesity, which impacts on the figures in the USA.
odyssey06 said:
It did not do its job in terms of protecting those most at risk in nursing homes.
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I think the real failure has been their inability to respond when outbreaks happen. Their lack of agility is staggering but not surprising. You can't spend a career avoiding making decisions or taking responsibility and then suddenly be great at crisis management.
 
Purple said:
Yes, and in that the HSE ,which is everyone who works for it including all the doctors, nurses, administrators and managers within the healthcare system rather than some abstract concept, has failed utterly. Despite the vast funding they receive they still can't add a meaningful amount of ICU beds and so we go into a level 5 lockdown.
There are lots of reasons, from access to insurance and ethnicity and, most of all, obesity, which impacts on the figures in the USA.
I think the real failure has been their inability to respond when outbreaks happen. Their lack of agility is staggering but not surprising. You can't spend a career avoiding making decisions or taking responsibility and then suddenly be great at crisis management.
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In terms of agility, not just the HSE... why is new legislation only coming in L5 which should have been in place for L3.
As noted by others, where was the enforcement of the existing legislation in Cavan on county final sundays... the wrong kind of agility there :(
 
EmmDee said:
The "fact" you quoted about hospitalisations were out of context and incorrectly compared to current numbers (comparing total versus a point in time). That was pointed out to you and you then changed to "deaths are the real metric".

Your thesis is that this is no worse than the flu of 2017 / 2018. Leaving aside the medical differences, that is incorrect no matter what measure you pick. To pick the "real metric" - total deaths during that flu season was 255 according to the link you provided. Up to yesterday, the number for Covid was 1,868. Total ICU cases during that flu season was 191 - far less than with Covid. Total notified cases was 11,889 versus >53k (though more testing will lead to more know cases).

So why not go find a fact that proves your thesis
Click to expand...

As for the flu comparison, it is now evident that this virus is manifestly on the level of a bad flu. At the beginning people were worried that this is a very dangerous and new virus, it isn't. It is now quite clear that the infection fatality rate is comparable with the flu. We could argue that it's a bit more or bit less but basically it's a bit more and in many groups especially for younger people it is significantly lower. This is not a new plague, this virus is within the scope of winter deaths that we have dealt with for the last 100 years.
 
bradyassoc said:
As for the flu comparison, it is now evident that this virus is manifestly on the level of a bad flu.
...
This is not a new plague, this virus is within the scope of winter deaths that we have dealt with for the last 100 years.
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A bad flu year in Ireland is considered one where around ~500 people die from direct and indirect causes. It's more often closer to the lower end of the scale around 200.

With COVID-19 we have shut down large sections of our society, restricted our movement, massively cut back on social interactions and still we are now approaching 1,700 deaths with two months yet to go.

We absolutely need to adjust to enable society to live alongside this, but to pretend this is no worse than a bad flu is quite frankly nonsense.
 
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According to the Independent:
Covid restrictions on travel between counties and household visits will only be eased just before Christmas under plans being discussed by Government. When the lockdown comes to an end on December 1 the Government is believed to be planning to move into Level 3 restrictions for at least two weeks before easing coronavirus regulations further. Under Level 3 rules people can only travel within their own county and no more than two households can meet indoors in a family home.

www.independent.ie

Travel and house visit curbs to remain until just before Christmas to reduce Covid

Covid restrictions on travel between counties and household visits will only be eased just before Christmas under plans being discussed by Government.
www.independent.ie www.independent.ie
 
joer said:
Hopefully golf will be back in full swing ;) fore .
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It appears to be a high-risk endeavour, for your career if not your health.
After a game of golf, should be like returning from a red list country, mandatory self isolation for x days...
 
I think the aim to try and get the corona numbers down to 100 cases per day or lower by December 1 is unachievable, also prolonging the lockdown later than december 1 will also not work. They are just going to have to accept the numbers of probably 150 to 300 cases per day as the best they can get. People are tired of the lockdowns at this stage and are simply not abiding by them, the fear factor is gone. The very high numbers throughout Europe now with the whole continent as a red zone means that stabilization until the vaccine arrives is the only option. Therefore they need to licence the vaccine as quickly as possible.
 
joe sod said:
People are tired of the lockdowns at this stage and are simply not abiding by them, the fear factor is gone.
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Not everyone had the fear. Take one example. Look at the staff working on the checkouts in the larger supermarkets. They don't have to wear masks because they are behind perspex screens. (Very flimsy and doubtful as to their safety, I have to add). Most staff don't wear masks only because they don't have to. I know wearing a mask all day would be uncomfortable but I think that I would be putting safety before comfort if it were me working there.
 
joe sod said:
They are just going to have to accept the numbers of probably 150 to 300 cases per day as the best they can get. People are tired of the lockdowns at this stage and are simply not abiding by them, the fear factor is gone.
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Numbers were >1,200 in the days before we entered level 5. How would numbers be held at 150-300 if current measures were eased?
 
A lot of the reduction happened under level 3, the biggest reductions happened in the first weeks of level 5. I just think nphet need to be realistic about what is achievable given what's happening in Europe and that many people will travel home on holidays over Christmas anyways. We have an open border with the north, if they maintain restrictions beyond December 1, people will go north to get their hair cut or go to a bar especially as its Christmas time.
 
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