Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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Going back to public sentiment, was talking to a guy who had been looking to buy for the best part of a year. Has since decided to continue renting a while as he reckons the prices are too high. He still gets people regularly thinking he's mad.

Another guy I know who bought an investment property from the plans last year says he'd be hesitant about buying anything now.

So some more people are sceptical.

In contrast a third guy who bought an investment property two years ago and has seen his property increase by 33% (based on current sale prices) still thinks purchasing is a good idea. He sees prices continuing to go up - even though his rent doesn't even cover his morgage. He views it as his pension. Tried to discuss with him whether it made sense to be essentially subsidising somone else's accomodation. However this arguement just made no sense to him. So long as this type of thinking is prevalent among investors (and they can afford to cover the shortfall in rent), it's hard to see these guys getting pessimistic.
 
Persius said:
Going back to public sentiment
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Mentioned in another thread i know of 2 recent FTB's who are bullish (they would be though having just bought) and 2 other FTB's (bought a few years ago) who have recently bought a second "investment property". I'm the only bear it seems.
Persius said:
He views it as his pension.
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Still can't understand this mindset.... are people really that short-sighted to think that the recent 5-10 year boom in property which has made accidental millionaires out of a minority will do the same for the majority in 30-40 years time.
 
Duplex said:
Interesting Borderlord, thanks for posting. In the absence of any other means of tracking inventory Daft listings are a worthwhile guide to possible public sentiment.

PS

Borderlord do you have data comparing June, July, 2003,2004,2005 property for sale with June, July this year?
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Yes, I have collected the already mentioned info. Please find below what you are asking for, however, I only started in Nov 2003 so I cant supply you with June / July info for 2003. Also, all figures are around mid-month and are for Dublin only

For sale June / July 2004 >> 871 / 1045
For sale June / July 2005 >> 854 / 748
For sale June / July 2006 >> 1293 / 1653
 
Borderlord said:
Yes, I have collected the already mentioned info. Please find below what you are asking for, however, I only started in Nov 2003 so I cant supply you with June / July info for 2003. Also, all figures are around mid-month and are for Dublin only

For sale June / July 2004 >> 871 / 1045
For sale June / July 2005 >> 854 / 748
For sale June / July 2006 >> 1293 / 1653
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Thanks Borderlord. (That name, you're not Slab Murphy by any chance? :)
 
Borderlord said:
Yes, I have collected the already mentioned info. Please find below what you are asking for, however, I only started in Nov 2003 so I cant supply you with June / July info for 2003. Also, all figures are around mid-month and are for Dublin only

For sale June / July 2004 >> 871 / 1045
For sale June / July 2005 >> 854 / 748
For sale June / July 2006 >> 1293 / 1653
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You dont collect stamps or watch trains do you? ;) only kidding.
 
Hey I just thought that this may interest a few people on here. There seems to be a trend in Dublin whereby a lot of big property developers are buying up big houses in good areas in Dublin and renting them out at low returns. Because they are mortgage free then of course they are generating good incomes of say between €4000-8000 per month but the returns are quite low as the houses are being bought for €2.5m-5m+ I wonder is there a trend whereby developers are trying to buy up as much property in order to keep demand high. Does anybody know whether this is their logic or is it more of an ego boost or do they see these as genuinely good investments (capital appreciation could be running at €500k-€1m a year on some of these properties)

To give you an idea of what I'm talking about. My parents home is in Dublin 6. On their road and two adjacent roads there is a well known developer who owns at least 10 houses ranging in value from €4m to about €10m - these are either vacant or rented out. Note most of these are listed and don't have development potential so he is not acquiring them for that reason. Also I know another developer in Dublin 4 who owns at least 6 large period properties which again are vacant or rented out at returns of approx 1-2%. So do people think this is a strategy to reduce supply?? Or whats going on?
 
Southsideboy,

Maybe these developers who are buying these listed properties for up to €10m and renting them out at a yield of 1-2% have more money than sense.

They may not be financial geniuses even though they have made millions by being in the right place at the right time, i.e. being a porperty develper during the biggest property boom in the history of Ireland. This huge boom has been the result of a combination of many different factors and any property developer/property owner has gained masively from it. But it could be a case that some of these developers know nothing else other than property and believe their own hype that property is a one way bet and that's why they invest their money in it.
 
Buying up houses at them prices will have no effect on supply whatsoever,because they are way outside the limit of most people.
I always considered the top end of the market a totally different beast to the rest of it,mainly because for most people buying at them prices money is not a problem and if they see a house they really want they will pay whatever for it (within some reason of course).

For property developlers to have any effect on real supply they would have to start buying up the likes of the celbridge's,lucan's,swords,santry's etc etc.
If this was found out it would bring such media/public/revenue scrunity down on them,they would probably end up worse off in the long run.
 
impossible to affect suupply in such a way! these could be trophy homes or just investments,at upper end of market rental yield isnt important,there will always be rich people willing to buy in the most exclusive area's.
 
Don't believe a crash is about to happen. In the last ten years house prices have been catching up with incomes. Even an interest rate of 5% is still a relatively low rate. An average mortgage repayment of €1,600 is still comfortably affordable for average earning couple. A majority of people have significant equity in their houses. With a strong economy and culture strong on home ownership, its difficult to see a collapse, there is too much momentum and disposal income. Given recent performance of stock markets there is still a strong sentiment for investing in property. Even if it drops 10% alot of people still will have had serious appreciation. The days for fast capital appreciation seem to be past. Sure alot of things can happen, economy can recess etc the sky can fall in, but it is a just as valid that property prices may just plateau as in the UK over the past few years. The value of property stock is still way above the value of debt.
 
Prices there seem to be getting close to or equal to the most expensive parts of london,does anyone seriously think dublin is as good an investment as london in the long term? london is a global capital and will always attract the rich and famous from around the world but dublin? plus theres big tax advantages to buying in uk compared to here.
 
Rico said:
Don't believe a crash is about to happen. In the last ten years house prices have been catching up with incomes.
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Eh hello,dont you mean racing ahead of ! :rolleyes:

Rico said:
The value of property stock is still way above the value of debt.
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Says who ?It's only worth what someone else is willing to pay for it,just because BoI says irish property is worth 800billion does not mean anyone outside of ireland would be willing to pay that for it.If only the irish reckon it's worth that,then that value is simply an illusion.
 
Rico said:
Don't believe a crash is about to happen. In the last ten years house prices have been catching up with incomes. Even an interest rate of 5% is still a relatively low rate. An average mortgage repayment of €1,600 is still comfortably affordable for average earning couple. A majority of people have significant equity in their houses. With a strong economy and culture strong on home ownership, its difficult to see a collapse, there is too much momentum and disposal income. Given recent performance of stock markets there is still a strong sentiment for investing in property. Even if it drops 10% alot of people still will have had serious appreciation. The days for fast capital appreciation seem to be past. Sure alot of things can happen, economy can recess etc the sky can fall in, but it is a just as valid that property prices may just plateau as in the UK over the past few years. The value of property stock is still way above the value of debt.
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If mortgage rates reach 5+% then the banks will be lending much less than when they were at 3% even if people can afford the payments the have to be stress tested.
Property has far exceed income growth and other fundamental measures hence the costant warnings from central bank etc.
Houses may be worth 500billion and mortgages 120billion but mortgaes are growing at 25% and if that continues with slower house price growth you'll soon have a scenario where mortgages exceed the "value " of all the property! when compounding at 25% the amount triples every 5 years.
 
bearishbull said:
impossible to affect suupply in such a way! these could be trophy homes or just investments,at upper end of market rental yield isnt important,there will always be rich people willing to buy in the most exclusive area's.
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I'm referring to keeping supply down at the upper end of the market. I would have thought its very easy to affect supply at this end of the market. Its a unique market. The stock of good period homes in Dublin is quite poor. The same builders happen to behind "exclusive" developments in D4 and D6.
 
southsideboy said:
I'm referring to keeping supply down at the upper end of the market. I would have thought its very easy to affect supply at this end of the market. Its a unique market. The stock of good period homes in Dublin is quite poor. The same builders happen to behind "exclusive" developments in D4 and D6.
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im sure he wouldnt tie up loads of capital just to limit supply ,the period house market isnt so small that a small number of houses would affect supply side significantly
 
i have a investor friend who just sold an investment property. he bought in 1996 for 60k and sold for 360k,his reasons for selling was to lock in profits. he thinks property is way overvalued and sooner or later there will be a correction-better to get out now and have a clear road rather than wait for rush hour with the herd when they get spooked by the sharp crack of interest rates rising.
says he can get the same or better return on his investment elsewhere,

dont know if he's mad or not ,
but he sure can mix metaphors.
 
It looks to me as if the Sunday Indo is calling the property boom to be over. Not a huge fan of the paper but I think it, or at least it's editorial staff, see it as being an opinion forming element of modern Ireland, and they appear to be now telling the masses that it's time to jump ship.

There's nothing new really in any of these stories but the fact that they've been lobbed out together in the one issue stood out for me. Maybe it's silly season and Business news is getting thin on the ground but I don't remember seeing this kind of stuff in previous years.

The smart money is now being diverted elsewhere
http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=184&si=1654335&issue_id=14357

A country Wilde about putting all of its investment eggs in the property basket
http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=184&si=1654099&issue_id=14357

A country bursting with riches and it's all due to a bubble
http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=184&si=1654147&issue_id=14357
 
Yes the Indo seems to have taken some sort of editorial decision to come out strongly against the bubble we have. They have a big enough circulation to know that the EA's will still have to deal with them if they want to flogg their overpriced wares.

Shane Ross has been particularly vociferous in recent weeks on the prospect of the bubble bursting.

I feel very sorry for that bloke to signed over his money for his investment in Turkey, I would contend that the currency collapse hasn't even registered with many who have handed over their (or the banks!) money
 
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