ubiquitous
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I think it is time to put this thread out of its misery. There may be some purpose to endless rehashing of homespun economic theories and faintly comical statistical extrapolations but enough is enough imho.
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purplealien
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ubiquitous said:
About time someone said it.
G
Guest107
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There are 14478 reasons to shut it down right now 
S
SteelBlue05
Guest
2Pack said:There are 14478 reasons to shut it down right now
Well there is one anyways
G
Guest107
Guest
Righty ho
Bertie and Noel Ahern have all sounded defensive in the past week about their actions to cool the market (and Brian Cowan today in repsonse to the EU Commission) . I thought markets were markets and sacrosanct.
What key piece of info do they have apart from the Noel Ahern figure in yesterdays times that FTBs borrowed €3Bn in the first 6 months of 2005 and then they borrowed (a new lot of FTBs of course) €8Bn in the first 6 months of 2006.
The government equally has figures on Investor activity (from stamp duty returns ) but has not shared this data with us.
Bertie and Noel Ahern have all sounded defensive in the past week about their actions to cool the market (and Brian Cowan today in repsonse to the EU Commission) . I thought markets were markets and sacrosanct.
What key piece of info do they have apart from the Noel Ahern figure in yesterdays times that FTBs borrowed €3Bn in the first 6 months of 2005 and then they borrowed (a new lot of FTBs of course) €8Bn in the first 6 months of 2006.
The government equally has figures on Investor activity (from stamp duty returns ) but has not shared this data with us.
Let's try to keep this OT.
Anyways, An interesting (and for a property supplement article surprisingly bear-ish) relevant article in today's Irish Times Property Supplement: (not available via link w/o subscription).
>>> Irish Times >>>
Buyers beware . . . again
Predictions of crashes give buyers jitters, writes Edel Morgan
These are confusing times for anyone planning to buy or sell property in Ireland. While some estate agents are reporting the first signs of a soft landing, others claim there is still a bullish appetite for residential property in this country and the current slow-down is largely related to seasonal factors.
Meanwhile the most vulnerable sector of the market, first-time buyers, are being left in a quandary as to whether to buy now or take a "wait and see" approach and risk prices rising again after the summer.
Last week I received an e-mail from a guy who said he had heeded warnings about the property market for some time and "now finally" has put a deposit on a house. He is getting cold feet because of "a lot of negativity" from people around him, which is making him "seriously doubt whether I should buy at this particular time.
" I'm also afraid to lose the house and not go for it because I know it will be snapped up as soon as I do. The house, as with most houses today, is for crazy money but... location, location, location. It's perfect! I am, and have been, aware of the downturn in the US which could in turn create a domino effect in Europe but buyers have been living in constant fear of a pending crash for at least 10 years as far as I can see and it hasn't happened... yet!
"What do you think?" he wrote, "I could do with a little positivity (is it really that bad?). I would appreciate your advice or any help you can offer."
Reading between the lines I could tell he wanted someone, anyone, to tell him he was doing the right thing. Unfortunately, in the absence of any psychic powers - that I'm aware of - I couldn't assure him that there are no risks involved.
There is a theory, however, that given its population, Dublin and, in particular what are regarded as "well located" areas in Dublin, will be less affected by a downturn in the market.
The reader seems to regard the house as ideal for him, which is just as well, as anyone taking the risk of buying a property in an uncertain market should be prepared to live in it long term. While most Irish economists are predicting a soft landing, if a negative equity situation occurs, he will have to hold on to the property until the market emerges from the crisis.
It's also crucial to consider affordability should interest rates rise significantly. I told him that certain economists and most estate agents (surprise, surprise) are predicting continued growth for the rest of this year at least, albeit at a slower pace, on the back of continuing demand and SSIA windfalls.
His dilemma is common. I know of a family who have been renting for years and which has been put off buying in the past by doom-laden predictions. They recently saw a reasonably priced property advertised in their preferred area in north county Dublin but are now hesitant following this week's bombshell.
While some agents insist that confidence in the market is still riding high, Alan Cooke of the IAVI has said it appears that a soft landing is imminent but won't happen across the market in one fell swoop or in all locations simultaneously.
It does seem that properties aimed at first-time buyers and middle-price brackets have experienced some sluggishness: neither group is affluent enough to take bets on a risky market prone to rising interest rates.
A house a few doors away from mine in Beaumont - where properties were being snapped up at an unrealistic €500,000-€600,000 until March/April: a phenomenal rise of €100,000-€150,000 on the previous summer - has being languishing on the market since early May and has now had its price reduced from €525,000 to €495,000.
A friend who is selling his three-bed semi in Whitehall, Dublin 9, for a price that would have been considered the going rate until early this year, has been told by his estate agent that he should consider revising the price downwards.
According to some reports the new homes market has taken a hit as some first-time buyers wait to see if prices fall and if developers offer better deals to offload properties. The last time this happened was post 9/11 in 2001 where appliances and furniture packages were being included as sweeteners.
The upper end of the market seems to be less sensitive to interest rate rises. However, last week Property reported the details of two expensive properties being sold by Lisney with reduced asking prices, which may reflect the time of year: a five-bed house in Dalkey with a 90ft back garden went from €1.85 to € 1.7 million and a five-bed house in Foxrock Manor from €2 million to €1.9 million. In the same week a house at number 8 Gilford Park in Sandymount, Dublin 4, sold for nearly a €1 million over its guide price of €1.5 million. I also know of a lady who sold her period house on the North Circular Road, Dublin 7, at auction for well in excess of the guide price in early May and recently won a bidding war for a 1930s redbrick property she bought for over €900,000.
But if trader-uppers continue to have difficulty selling their properties, it might be only a matter of time before this sector of the market is also affected.
© The Irish Times
Anyways, An interesting (and for a property supplement article surprisingly bear-ish) relevant article in today's Irish Times Property Supplement: (not available via link w/o subscription).
>>> Irish Times >>>
Buyers beware . . . again
Predictions of crashes give buyers jitters, writes Edel Morgan
These are confusing times for anyone planning to buy or sell property in Ireland. While some estate agents are reporting the first signs of a soft landing, others claim there is still a bullish appetite for residential property in this country and the current slow-down is largely related to seasonal factors.
Meanwhile the most vulnerable sector of the market, first-time buyers, are being left in a quandary as to whether to buy now or take a "wait and see" approach and risk prices rising again after the summer.
Last week I received an e-mail from a guy who said he had heeded warnings about the property market for some time and "now finally" has put a deposit on a house. He is getting cold feet because of "a lot of negativity" from people around him, which is making him "seriously doubt whether I should buy at this particular time.
" I'm also afraid to lose the house and not go for it because I know it will be snapped up as soon as I do. The house, as with most houses today, is for crazy money but... location, location, location. It's perfect! I am, and have been, aware of the downturn in the US which could in turn create a domino effect in Europe but buyers have been living in constant fear of a pending crash for at least 10 years as far as I can see and it hasn't happened... yet!
"What do you think?" he wrote, "I could do with a little positivity (is it really that bad?). I would appreciate your advice or any help you can offer."
Reading between the lines I could tell he wanted someone, anyone, to tell him he was doing the right thing. Unfortunately, in the absence of any psychic powers - that I'm aware of - I couldn't assure him that there are no risks involved.
There is a theory, however, that given its population, Dublin and, in particular what are regarded as "well located" areas in Dublin, will be less affected by a downturn in the market.
The reader seems to regard the house as ideal for him, which is just as well, as anyone taking the risk of buying a property in an uncertain market should be prepared to live in it long term. While most Irish economists are predicting a soft landing, if a negative equity situation occurs, he will have to hold on to the property until the market emerges from the crisis.
It's also crucial to consider affordability should interest rates rise significantly. I told him that certain economists and most estate agents (surprise, surprise) are predicting continued growth for the rest of this year at least, albeit at a slower pace, on the back of continuing demand and SSIA windfalls.
His dilemma is common. I know of a family who have been renting for years and which has been put off buying in the past by doom-laden predictions. They recently saw a reasonably priced property advertised in their preferred area in north county Dublin but are now hesitant following this week's bombshell.
While some agents insist that confidence in the market is still riding high, Alan Cooke of the IAVI has said it appears that a soft landing is imminent but won't happen across the market in one fell swoop or in all locations simultaneously.
It does seem that properties aimed at first-time buyers and middle-price brackets have experienced some sluggishness: neither group is affluent enough to take bets on a risky market prone to rising interest rates.
A house a few doors away from mine in Beaumont - where properties were being snapped up at an unrealistic €500,000-€600,000 until March/April: a phenomenal rise of €100,000-€150,000 on the previous summer - has being languishing on the market since early May and has now had its price reduced from €525,000 to €495,000.
A friend who is selling his three-bed semi in Whitehall, Dublin 9, for a price that would have been considered the going rate until early this year, has been told by his estate agent that he should consider revising the price downwards.
According to some reports the new homes market has taken a hit as some first-time buyers wait to see if prices fall and if developers offer better deals to offload properties. The last time this happened was post 9/11 in 2001 where appliances and furniture packages were being included as sweeteners.
The upper end of the market seems to be less sensitive to interest rate rises. However, last week Property reported the details of two expensive properties being sold by Lisney with reduced asking prices, which may reflect the time of year: a five-bed house in Dalkey with a 90ft back garden went from €1.85 to € 1.7 million and a five-bed house in Foxrock Manor from €2 million to €1.9 million. In the same week a house at number 8 Gilford Park in Sandymount, Dublin 4, sold for nearly a €1 million over its guide price of €1.5 million. I also know of a lady who sold her period house on the North Circular Road, Dublin 7, at auction for well in excess of the guide price in early May and recently won a bidding war for a 1930s redbrick property she bought for over €900,000.
But if trader-uppers continue to have difficulty selling their properties, it might be only a matter of time before this sector of the market is also affected.
© The Irish Times
PS Seeing as I brought up the IT Property supplement. If any joe publics have been keeping an eye on the "worth the investment" series of articles that they run (including todays), they will have observed a noticeable pattern in the 'advice' given. The conclusion for the majority of properties in the past 6 weeks or so has been that the gap b/t rental income and repayments would make the property a questionable 'investment'.
Now this gap b/t rental and mortgage payments have existed for several years - but it's interesting that it's finally being directly pointed out.
Now this gap b/t rental and mortgage payments have existed for several years - but it's interesting that it's finally being directly pointed out.
Here is an interesting article by David Mc Williams on the Bank of Ireland study earlier in the week which claimed that we are the second richest nation in the world:
[broken link removed]
It is certainly food for thought. The goverments inclination to avoid acting responsibly is a source of constant amazement to me. If we allow vested interests to continue to make unchallenged statements then we are certainly in for a 'correction' - and let's hope it's not a Japanese-style 20-year-plus correction.
[broken link removed]
It is certainly food for thought. The goverments inclination to avoid acting responsibly is a source of constant amazement to me. If we allow vested interests to continue to make unchallenged statements then we are certainly in for a 'correction' - and let's hope it's not a Japanese-style 20-year-plus correction.
G
Guest107
Guest
The Japs dithered for years after the top of their boom. We are as well off to take the hit as quickly as we can, 3 years max. The adjustment to reality should be fast and then we will get over it.shnaek said:
The commensurate shock to the property market in Kusadasi, Bulgaria, Krakow, Budapest , Prague, Outer Mongolia Cyprus and Faro will be equally sharp and equally quick.
Many International property markest are bubbleicious thanks to this ludicrous Irish wealth effect . Personally I would not touch Bulgaria or Eddie Hobbs' favourite...the Cape Verde Islands, with a 900 foot pole.
This weeks Irish Times property supplement is only 16 pages, and Edel Morgan's column is missing. I guess the smaller supplement if for the quiet summer season.
However, on page 6 of today's IT property supplement. There's a light hearted piece in the "Around the Block" section about builders heading off for their holidays. But is this a slight mood change for such pieces?
"The developers have every reason to splash out this summer, after one of the busiest six month periods in living memory. New house sales have been frentic, with a touch of concern that the good times may be coming to an end."
and
"With over €1 billion in site sales so far this year, the traditional housebuilder list out time and time again to investor groups who believe they can cash in on the high profit margins in the new home market. These new style raiders are in many cases advised by stockbrokers and bankser, rather than estate agents, and let's hope they get it right."
Don't have link. Got this from the printed version.
Soma, I've also been following the "worth the investment" section since my return to Ireland in March. I couldn't believe that they were saying the featured properties were definetly worth the investment during March and April, as the potential rent only barely covered an interest only morgage (no mention of charges etc). However I too have noticed much more cautious conclusions over the last 6 to 8 weeks.
However, on page 6 of today's IT property supplement. There's a light hearted piece in the "Around the Block" section about builders heading off for their holidays. But is this a slight mood change for such pieces?
"The developers have every reason to splash out this summer, after one of the busiest six month periods in living memory. New house sales have been frentic, with a touch of concern that the good times may be coming to an end."
and
"With over €1 billion in site sales so far this year, the traditional housebuilder list out time and time again to investor groups who believe they can cash in on the high profit margins in the new home market. These new style raiders are in many cases advised by stockbrokers and bankser, rather than estate agents, and let's hope they get it right."
Don't have link. Got this from the printed version.
Soma, I've also been following the "worth the investment" section since my return to Ireland in March. I couldn't believe that they were saying the featured properties were definetly worth the investment during March and April, as the potential rent only barely covered an interest only morgage (no mention of charges etc). However I too have noticed much more cautious conclusions over the last 6 to 8 weeks.
Re: Edel Morgan article.
Worth making the distinction in that in the examples she gives (Beaumont and Whitehall) she is not just taking about reductions in unrealistic asking prices.
She is giving examples of how prices have fallen from levels that were the going rate - i.e. real house price falls.
Well welly well, and they said it couldn't happen here.
Worth making the distinction in that in the examples she gives (Beaumont and Whitehall) she is not just taking about reductions in unrealistic asking prices.
She is giving examples of how prices have fallen from levels that were the going rate - i.e. real house price falls.
Well welly well, and they said it couldn't happen here.
One of the main stories in the business section of today's IT is headed
"Central bank issues fresh house price warning"
This is based on the central bank report issued yesterday where they see a gap between the actual house prices and "the prices warranted by fundamentals".
In a separate story, Jim Power, chief economist with Friends First predicts an ECB rate of 4.25% in 18 months.
Yikes, if that turns out to be true, we'll be looking at morgage rates of 5.5%.
"Central bank issues fresh house price warning"
This is based on the central bank report issued yesterday where they see a gap between the actual house prices and "the prices warranted by fundamentals".
In a separate story, Jim Power, chief economist with Friends First predicts an ECB rate of 4.25% in 18 months.
Yikes, if that turns out to be true, we'll be looking at morgage rates of 5.5%.
W
walk2dewater
Guest
Persius said:
Jim knows it'll be more like 4.25% before 12mth are up. But of course he can't say that. Instead, like all other economists have done for last 1-2yrs, he'll constantly revised upwards his estimates. Irish economists ECB rate official forecasts have got to have the poorest track record... no one seems to (wants to?) point this out
This time next year when ECB is at 4.5% and still talking increasingly hawkish, it'll be "we see rates levelling out at 5.5% in 12mths"... etc etc...
Large debtors need to do some thinking for themselves...
Persius said:
Wouldn't be surprised if it was nearer 5% (base rate) in 18 months. W2DW thinks we'll be on our way to 8% by then remember. Rates are definitely rising faster than people expected. Looks like it could be a least 3.5% by the end of 2006 when at the start of 2006 a rate of 3.5% was being predicted for mid-2007.
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