Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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anseo said:
After reading the "buying property in Dublin - anyone scared of a crash " all I can say is God help us.
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Quote from said forum: "As for the property crash - it ain't gonna happen. Property prices will stablise, thats its, they won't crash. Any economist will tell you that."
 
anseo said:
If you're looking for a more intellectual debate, try the Irish Wimmin's forum:




After reading the "buying property in Dublin - anyone scared of a crash " all I can say is God help us.


Women are a bit mad aren't they!
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good link! I love this one...

"[FONT=Arial, Verdana]As for the property crash - it ain't gonna happen. Property prices will stablise, thats its, they won't crash. Any economist will tell you that."

...except perhaps this one: http://www.economist.com/
[/FONT]
 
ivuernis said:
I don't think we'll require those kind of rates to alter the mentality here. I think we're beginning to see it already. 9% would certainly see the market go Japanese but sentiment would turn with half those rates IMHO.
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On the contrary, the odds of dramatic price falls this summer flowing into Autumn are less than the odds that prices go on a massive 2 year run. Sorry, Irish propery owners would rather eat glue than sell their property for a discount and rates are no where near enough to withdraw the amount of liquidity required. The only thing that can save this economy from an imploding debt pyramid is a quick, sharp spike in interest rates. 8% ECB by end 2008 would be just about sufficient to do it.
 
walk2dewater said:
A nice put or short on a basket of Irish banks would be nice.
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I suggested this a few weeks back (end of June):

Remix said:
The ISEQ financials seem oblivious to the emerging situation

Big 4 at 18.34/14.10/11.58/18.55

Time for shorts ?
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Wish I'd taken my own advice as the Big 4 are now DOWN

-4%
-6%
-5.8%
-6.7%

Since that post !
 
Remix said:
I suggested this a few weeks back (end of June):



Wish I'd taken my own advice as the Big 4 are now DOWN

-4%
-6%
-5.8%
-6.7%

Since that post !
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I'll have to take a closer look. Thanks for that.
 
ivuernis said:
I agree it's not just rates which are a factor in this, and many other indicators at the moment point to the possibility of problems ahead especially for the US economy.

I knew the yield curve had been flat for some about 6 months now, was it just June that it inverted?

p.s. UK inflation jumped too this month, possibly interest rate rise on the card in the UK again.
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From memory about 4 weeks. ivuernis.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates/index.html
 
walk2dewater said:
On the contrary, the odds of dramatic price falls this summer flowing into Autumn are less than the odds that prices go on a massive 2 year run.
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I don't see dramatic falls on the card anytime soon either even with rates rising faster than anticipated but neither can I envisage the property bull continuing for another 2 years, certainly not at anything approaching double digits.
 
What is interesting is the amount of 2nd hand investment properties becoming available. A quick trawl through myhome.ie (only watching Dublin West and Dublin North) is very revealing. Not many 1 beds, but there is plenty of 2 beds.

I think there is many 'savvy' and 'canny' investors out there trying to dump their 'portfolio' in a quiet market. With the recent media attention on the ECB rate rises in August, they appear not to be in it for the long haul after all. It is amazing how these people will dilude themselves with the promises of easy money. It is also quite funny to note the EA's marketing these properties to "First time buyers and Investors alike.."
 
anseo said:
If you're looking for a more intellectual debate, try the Irish Wimmin's forum:




After reading the "buying property in Dublin - anyone scared of a crash " all I can say is God help us.


Women are a bit mad aren't they!
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Is this thing for real? God help anyone who relies on this nugget for investment advice
 
Not in Dublin, but this house caught my eye for the price tagline 'or nearest offer' in the description. I've never seen this before. Unusual?

[broken link removed]
 
From ivenus
" I don't think you can lose in Dublin the population is growing and there aint enough housing, I bought in an up and coming area in dublin 14mths ago and now I couldn't afford my own place if I were to try and buy it now. I feel sorry for people who haven't bought yet! Best thing I ever did was buy Cavan because from that I got the deposit for Dublin by remortgaging! So if people can't afford Dublin but can afford elsewhere I'd say to do it just to get on the ladder!"

Aint enough housing in dublin? Thats why rents are no higher than 6 years ago!! Oh i'd say theres great demand for rental properties in the economic capital of ireland -Cavan! These are the sort of "investors" buying and inflating market with zero regard for rental yields or sustainability and are in for a rude awakening
 
bearishbull said:
From ivenus
" I don't think you can lose in Dublin the population is growing and there aint enough housing, I bought in an up and coming area in dublin 14mths ago and now I couldn't afford my own place if I were to try and buy it now. I feel sorry for people who haven't bought yet! Best thing I ever did was buy Cavan because from that I got the deposit for Dublin by remortgaging! So if people can't afford Dublin but can afford elsewhere I'd say to do it just to get on the ladder!"

Aint enough housing in dublin? Thats why rents are no higher than 6 years ago!! Oh i'd say theres great demand for rental properties in the economic capital of ireland -Cavan! These are the sort of "investors" buying and inflating market with zero regard for rental yields or sustainability and are in for a rude awakening
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It would be interesting to see how many of these guru's are managing to get tenants in these places outside the commuter belt like Cavan and if so what sweeteners they have had to throw in such as reduced rent to actually let them. I don't think those stories would make it on that thread. I agree a rude awakening is in store for these type of investors especially if they have to put up the for sale sign and find a shortage of potential buyers.
 
I don’t think a correction in the Irish property market needs to wait for a sudden increase in interest rates. The market, particularly over the last few years has been driven by fear and speculation rather than sound economic principles. The fact that interest rates are nudging up with no certainty of where they will level off may be enough for investors to start considering a movement out of property. The real test for the property market will come when prices stabilise and possibly stop growing – will investors stay for the long haul and be happy in the short to medium term with low yields and little if any capital appreciation?
 
I was in the UK yesterday, and the headline of the British Mail was that UK house prices are set to rise 50% over the next 6 years. This was based on some survey or the other without much detail. They just said it was also based on the assumption that BoE rates stayed at 4.5%. There was also mention of Japanese style intergenerational morgages.

Not really relevant to sentiment in Ireland I know, but I found it unusual considering how many people were saying that UK prices had plateaued out. Maybe it's as a previous poster said, you won't know the boom/bubble is over till about 9 months after the peak has been reached.
 
...got a voice message from an established EA on the northside wanting to know if i was still looking for property.

never got that before!
 
phoenix_n said:
...got a voice message from an established EA on the northside wanting to know if i was still looking for property.

never got that before!
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Becoming more like Glengary Glenross every day. The EA's looking for "leads".
 
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