Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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Bulgarian and Turkish investments both featured in bearish articles in sunday papers today along with bearish articles about irish bubbles, debt,high oil, interest rates and economy slowing down in next two years, enough in these opinion forming publications today to start forming more widespread negative sentiment, this autumn-spring will be crucial for the market.
 
am just back from a weekend in Ireland where (as always) property was a topic of discussion with a number of people that I met.

i certainly did notice a slightly more circumspect view of the Irish property market from the majority of the prople that I spoke to (but as always a soft landing was never in doubt).

What I thought was interesting is that whilst there was a growing realisation that Irish property prices no longer represented good value to the investor; there is still a strong appetite for property as an invesmtnet vehicle so many were looking overseas (the UK & Germany in particular).
 
there's another interesting poll on boards.ie about property which is here which again seems to indicate that a massive turn in sentiment has begun to materialise in the irish psyche
 
miju said:
there's another interesting poll on boards.ie about property which is here which again seems to indicate that a massive turn in sentiment has begun to materialise in the irish psyche
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When is the moment that you can definately say that the bubble has burst ?
 
personally don't think there is one defining moment as property isn't like the markets so you wouldn't really have days like black monday etc
 
phoenix_n said:
When is the moment that you can definately say that the bubble has burst ?
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about 9 months to a year after it actually happens ;) When the market does turn there will be so much spin from all the vested interests with dodgy stats that it will be impossible to tell what's what at the time.
 
On a previous thread about this subject, someone posted a link to an article about the collapse of housing bubbles. Seemingly it's more of a slow puncture situation!
 
That article was written January 2005, the author hasn't exactly been proven right so far!!
 
phoenix_n said:
Anyone else thinking that the bubble has already burst.
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Not yet IMO. Won't happen before ECB rates hit 3.5% as there are too many 'professional' investors who are still buying. I have noticed a change in sentiment though
 
phoenix_n said:
Anyone else thinking that the bubble has already burst.
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No, we're going Japanese in Ireland-- that's my bet-- 2 more years of sellers/bull market in Irish property. We need crushing ECB rates to alter the mentality here. 9% mortgages should do it.

I was in London on the w/e. Apart from high-end London, bidding wars for UK property are 'so last year'. But then high-end London, is like high-end Paris or New York-- its sheikhs, Russians oil barons and rockstars.

Now the conventional wisdom of ordinary UK buyers is to expect a discount or some form of sweetener. I have friend in the City, UBS director, lives in a (v nice) rental apartment. Sold his London place 2yrs ago and has just bought a block of flats in Berlin.
 
CapitalCCC said:
That article was written January 2005, the author hasn't exactly been proven right so far!!
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That article is solely describing the US housing market situation and based on figures coming out about the US market (re: building starts, completions, sales, etc.) this year may be on the ball.
 
Some areas in Dublin are definitely showing warning signs that look more than just a summer slowdown.

Also looks likely at this point that the summer slowdown will transition into a significantly higher interest rate environment.

The unbalanced nature of the housing market is maintained by big time borrowing and the problem (from the banks perspective) with keeping prices at these levels is that Irish personal debt is now already very high by international standards.

You would think that options might be running out for this particular money-maker.
 
walk2dewater said:
No, we're going Japanese in Ireland-- that's my bet-- 2 more years of sellers/bull market in Irish property. We need crushing ECB rates to alter the mentality here. 9% mortgages should do it.
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..outside of some level of satisfaction you are going to get if/when there is a major crash, do you have some vested interest in seeing it happen?
 
walk2dewater said:
We need crushing ECB rates to alter the mentality here. 9% mortgages should do it.
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I don't think we'll require those kind of rates to alter the mentality here. I think we're beginning to see it already. 9% would certainly see the market go Japanese but sentiment would turn with half those rates IMHO.
 
Its not just rates, its the economy or more precisely the US economy. The Yield curve has remained inverted for almost a month now, a harbinger of a sharp slowdown and probable recession in the US. The deficits have caught up with the Americans.
 
Duplex said:
Its not just rates, its the economy or more precisely the US economy. The Yield curve has remained inverted for almost a month now, a harbinger of a sharp slowdown and probable recession in the US. The deficits have caught up with the Americans.
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I agree it's not just rates which are a factor in this, and many other indicators at the moment point to the possibility of problems ahead especially for the US economy.

I knew the yield curve had been flat for some about 6 months now, was it just June that it inverted?

p.s. UK inflation jumped too this month, possibly interest rate rise on the card in the UK again.
 
ninsaga said:
..outside of some level of satisfaction you are going to get if/when there is a major crash, do you have some vested interest in seeing it happen?
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I get satisfaction in being right with my investment calls, and that means putting my money where the facts are telling me. I've been (overall) a successful investor for coming on 20 years now. I intend to profit from whatever the markets throw my way. A nice put or short on a basket of Irish banks would be nice.

the facts are telling me that the religious zeal for property is far from over in ireland, in fact, the true mania may have only started. As I said before I need to see clear evidence of inventory build up, before Im willing to believe we've reached a price peak.
 
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