Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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The market seems to be in the process of absorbing new information on the likely prospects for price growth over the next few years. It appears that a consensus is developing that price growth will be a much less in the coming years than we have witnessed previously. Banks and agents are anticipating that prices will now appreciate in line with incomes, a soft landing. However is this what the market wants? Does the market want low single digit price growth? Would investors be happy to accept historically low yields, yields below self financing levels? Without the compensation of capital growth?. Will first time buyers be in such a hurry to buy, if they see that prices are static relative to their incomes?

If prices are static will new buyers be able to tap notional equity growth in the value of their property to finance lifestyle and/or further property purchases? What will happen to the building industry when the demand for new houses wanes? Will Eastern Europeans find employment outside the building sector if a slowdown causes layoffs? Will they decamp and return home or move on to the next boom nation?

Can a soft landing ( a state of effective stasis) be possible after a speculative bubble in asset prices where the supply of that asset is plentiful? Where the cost of buying the asset increases, when the values does not?
 
Duplex said:
The market seems to be in the process of absorbing new information on the likely prospects for price growth over the next few years. It appears that a consensus is developing that price growth will be a much less in the coming years than we have witnessed previously. Banks and agents are anticipating that prices will now appreciate in line with incomes, a soft landing. However is this what the market wants? Does the market want low single digit price growth? Would investors be happy to accept historically low yields, yields below self financing levels? Without the compensation of capital growth?. Will first time buyers be in such a hurry to buy, if they see that prices are static relative to their incomes?

If prices are static will new buyers be able to tap notional equity growth in the value of their property to finance lifestyle and/or further property purchases? What will happen to the building industry when the demand for new houses wanes? Will Eastern Europeans find employment outside the building sector if a slowdown causes layoffs? Will they decamp and return home or move on to the next boom nation?

Can a soft landing ( a state of effective stasis) be possible after a speculative bubble in asset prices where the supply of that asset is plentiful? Where the cost of buying the asset increases, when the values does not?
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With or without higher rates the SL is an impossibility. With higher rates the tipping point into a true buyers market just will come quicker. There will be financial carnage for many.
 
Trichet urges close attention to oil prices
[broken link removed]

"The phenomenon we are observing is very important and we have to understand it. One of our provisional conclusions is that we are in some kind of supply shock but also very much a demand shock with the emergence of new giants," Trichet said.

Get ready for Peak Oil people.

 
walk2dewater said:
With or without higher rates the SL is an impossibility. With higher rates the tipping point into a true buyers market just will come quicker. There will be financial carnage for many.
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I somewhat agree with you. A soft landing would imply a gradual reduction in demand or an increase in supply. With around 40% of newbuilds bought from investors and including the amount of stock already held by speculators, one can only expect an explosion in supply when prices flatline.
 
ubiquitous said:
In what way? I think you are missing the point that the PRTB are merely recording registrations of rented properties. Their figures make no reference to, or assessment of, the numbers of unregistered rented properties.

It is well-recognised (notably by the government itself) that the vast majority of landlords have failed to register with the PRTB. A special measure to force landlords to do so, on pain of losing tax relief on mortgage interest, was therefore included in the recent finance act.
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I know of tax-dodging landlords who just don't claim the tax relief in the hope that the tax man won't take an interest. I'd estimate that about 60% of landlords are not registered - and I would guess it is mostly for tax reasons. There is a huge discrepancy between paying 42% on an income of 1000 a month and paying nothing on say 750 a month. The irony of this is that as a private tenant you can get a nicely discounted rent from a tax-dodger landlord, but those who disobey the law on tax generally don't give a fig about minimum standards etc, but once you cop on they aren't declaring it, it is a good way to get things done, hold them to ransom, etc.

The main problem with this (aside from the lost tax revenue which must be enormous) is that it pushes rent-allowance tenants into the 40% of the market that is tax-declaring and as those who pay tax are making smaller profits they are less likely to have the spare cash to pay for maintenance and repairs etc. (Of course it could be argued that people who are too mean to pay tax are also too mean to maintain the property, but I'm sorry to say that in my experience the shabbiest of properties I have let were all by tax-abiders, while the nice ones were let by the tax-dodgers). It also makes a lot of official stats on the size of the rented sector less meaningful.
 
Seems even one of americans biggest and most respected newspapers doubt sthe sustainability of the house market.
But the estate agents are furiously spinning
[broken link removed]
Paul Murgatroyd, DNG economist, said: "We do seem to be moving into a period of soft landing. The downturn, everything will be fine scenario we have been hearing about, it looks like it is coming to fruition.
"We are moving into a soft landing and stabilising of house price growth, but certainly there is no crash or big dip.
"The balances of power are shifting back to the buyer from the vendor slightly but the downside is that there is the double-edged sword of raising increased sums to fund the buying and paying back loans."
Mr Murgatroyd also warned that first time buyers sat on their hands in 2001 expecting prices to keep on falling but in the first quarter of 2002 prices saw a 6.5% rise, making up all the ground that was lost in the previous year. BASICALLY BUY NOW OR PRICES WILL RISE MUCH MORE IN NEXT YEAR !!!!! BUT HIS BUDDY THE CHIEF EXECUTIVE SAYS;

Keith Lowe, chief executive of Douglas Newman Good, said: "Looking at the remainder of the year, if interest rates continue to rise steadily, it is difficult to see house price inflation running at anything other than a very small amount as demand is pegged back by the higher cost of borrowing.

BASICALLY HE SAYS PRICES CANT RISE BY MUCH MORE THAN A SMALL AMOUNT!

NOT SINGING FROM THE SAME HYMNSHEET LADS! MR MURGATROYD SEEMS TO BE GETTING WORRIED!
 
he is of course a PROPERTY ECONOMIST not a real economist.

soft means hard
upside means do not buy
sound fundamentals means don't sell till I offload my pad first
landing means crashing
 
I am about to sign a contract on a new build in the next 2 weeks. I am now thinking that i probably won't. Thats just me but if i am one person then there may be more.
 
phoenix_n said:
I am about to sign a contract on a new build in the next 2 weeks. I am now thinking that i probably won't. Thats just me but if i am one person then there may be more.
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At least ask the developer for a nice discount. If they decline, you can tell them to feck off (If that is your intended decision)
 
redo said:
At least ask the developer for a nice discount. If they decline, you can tell them to feck off (If that is your intended decision)
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I thought the same. I might aswell give it a go.
 
in a soggy market the first sign of discounting is when the allowances for kitchens and tiling and stuff go from a generous €3k to a generous €15k , a HIDDEN discount of €12k but with no discount off list.

start off by querying the allowances. Tel the developer you remember them being a lot higher and if they won't budge then ask straight off for a discount
 
Just saw a housing launch advertised on RTE1, have never seen a specific development get this sort of promotion before but maybe I have just missed it.
 
I am new to this site but have been collecting some information from Daft since Nov 2003 regarding rent and sales in Dublin ? Cork City. This was done on a weekly basis and here are my findings
In Dublin I took an overall view of what was for rent and then I focused on two areas, Lucan and Rathfarnham using set criteria of 3 bed semi D and a max Eur 1,300 pm. Below is a summary of some of my findings. I hope this helps

To Let / Rent 19/11/2003
Dublin >> 3936 units
Cork >> 112 units
Lucan >> 85 units
Rathfarnham >> 16 units
For Sales Dublin >> 358 units

To Let / Rent 08/04/2004
Dublin >> 4065 units
Cork >> 260 units
Lucan >> 45 units
Rathfarnham >> 9 units
For Sales Dublin >> 723 units

To Let / Rent 08/11/2004
Dublin >> 3258 units
Cork >> 212 units
Lucan >> 72 units
Rathfarnham >> 14 units
For Sales Dublin >> 1087 units

To Let / Rent 21/04/2005
Dublin >> 2912 units
Cork >> 228 units
Lucan >> 40 units
Rathfarnham >> 12 units
For Sales Dublin >> 918 units

To Let / Rent 22/11/2005
Dublin >> 2545 units
Cork >> 164 units
Lucan >> 32 units
Rathfarnham >> 4 units
For Sales Dublin >> 623 units

To Let / Rent 20/04/2006
Dublin >> 2522 units
Cork >> 215 units
Lucan >> 24 units
Rathfarnham >> 5 units
For Sales Dublin >> 817 units

To Let / Rent 05/07/2006
Dublin >> 2918 units
Cork >> 346 units
Lucan >> 20 units
Rathfarnham >> 2 units
For Sales Dublin >> 1637 units
 
Borderlord said:
I am new to this site but have been collecting some information from Daft since Nov 2003 regarding rent and sales in Dublin ? Cork City. This was done on a weekly basis and here are my findings
In Dublin I took an overall view of what was for rent and then I focused on two areas, Lucan and Rathfarnham using set criteria of 3 bed semi D and a max Eur 1,300 pm. Below is a summary of some of my findings. I hope this helps

To Let / Rent 19/11/2003
Dublin >> 3936 units
Cork >> 112 units
Lucan >> 85 units
Rathfarnham >> 16 units
For Sales Dublin >> 358 units

To Let / Rent 08/04/2004
Dublin >> 4065 units
Cork >> 260 units
Lucan >> 45 units
Rathfarnham >> 9 units
For Sales Dublin >> 723 units

To Let / Rent 08/11/2004
Dublin >> 3258 units
Cork >> 212 units
Lucan >> 72 units
Rathfarnham >> 14 units
For Sales Dublin >> 1087 units

To Let / Rent 21/04/2005
Dublin >> 2912 units
Cork >> 228 units
Lucan >> 40 units
Rathfarnham >> 12 units
For Sales Dublin >> 918 units

To Let / Rent 22/11/2005
Dublin >> 2545 units
Cork >> 164 units
Lucan >> 32 units
Rathfarnham >> 4 units
For Sales Dublin >> 623 units

To Let / Rent 20/04/2006
Dublin >> 2522 units
Cork >> 215 units
Lucan >> 24 units
Rathfarnham >> 5 units
For Sales Dublin >> 817 units

To Let / Rent 05/07/2006
Dublin >> 2918 units
Cork >> 346 units
Lucan >> 20 units
Rathfarnham >> 2 units
For Sales Dublin >> 1637 units
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Not more of this! Are you 2Pack in disguise?!
 
Well that seems to give the lie to the theory that more people are using Daft than formerly. From your figures over a thousand more properties in the market in Dublin now than in 2003 and approximately a thousand less properties to rent in Dublin than in 2003. Could there be other interpretations? It looks as if contrary to what people are saying regarding their sentiments on property, the slide may be beginning!
 
Interesting Borderlord, thanks for posting. In the absence of any other means of tracking inventory Daft listings are a worthwhile guide to possible public sentiment.

PS

Borderlord do you have data comparing June, July, 2003,2004,2005 property for sale with June, July this year?
 
Duplex said:
Interesting Borderlord, thanks for posting. In the absence of any other means of tracking inventory Daft listings are a worthwhile guide to possible public sentiment.
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I will say nothing save that the Borderlord is not me, not associated with me in any way , and obviously got there long before me <respect> .

Possible pubic sentiment is a most elegant way of putting it duplex.

Please refrain from shooting the messengers y'all :p
 
can people stop posting any numbers from daft, set up your own daft thread. why dont you ask daft to set up an index of inventory in irish market or something. the figures as many have said are meaningless without context /adjustment for daft business growth and seasonal factors.
 
bearishbull said:
can people stop posting any numbers from daft, set up your own daft thread. why dont you ask daft to set up an index of inventory in irish market or something. the figures as many have said are meaningless without context /adjustment for daft business growth and seasonal factors.
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Plus I know of one house in particular in Malahide (1.3m) for sale. It has about 4 entries in the lettings section with prices ranging from 2000 - 2500.
 
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