Brexit 2017

[Duke of Marmalade]

Oh dear, we're having a problem with Junior Cert algebra. Ireland were indeed a net receiver in 2015 : €40M in my figures. But the other 26 combined were net receivers of c.€15,000M - basically the divvie up of Germany's Net Contribution. Actually, it is worth noting that the UK's Net Contribution was bigger than all of the other 27 countries combined including Germany. Same is true of any of the positive Net Contributors - basic algebra.

As to the dire consequences of Britain's exit for yours trully I have already started to put aside funds to compensate for my share of the lost lolly which I put at 20c per week. It will mean some belt tightening but we Irish have come through worse, I think we will survive.

 

[Wahaay]

Oh dear, we're having a problem with Junior Cert algebra. Ireland were indeed a net receiver in 2015 : €40M in my figures. But the other 26 combined were net receivers of c.€15,000M - basically the divvie up of Germany's Net Contribution. Actually, it is worth noting that the UK's Net Contribution was bigger than all of the other 27 countries combined including Germany. Same is true of any of the positive Net Contributors - basic algebra.

As to the dire consequences of Britain's exit for yours trully I have already started to put aside funds to compensate for my share of the lost lolly which I put at 20c per week. It will mean some belt tightening but we Irish have come through worse, I think we will survive.

The reality is ,of course,that it doesn't cost every citizen of the EU 20c.
It costs those countries who are net contributors far more which is why Germans are beginning to tire of bailing out the Greek economy and UK citizens have come to see the unfairness of how much they contribute to a system they have little control over.
Sadly,as for most of its history,Ireland's fortunes rest in the hands of others.When Irish budgets are being discussed behind closed doors in Brussels before citizens of this country have had a chance to hear them really doesn't indicate there's much left of the independence that was earned so costly.

 

[Dan Murray]

Lighten up Nige!

I find this a little ironic.

 

[Wahaay]

Careful.
You could trigger a troll alert ...

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

I'd hate to spoil a beautiful friendship by asking Dan to comment on your algebra, Nige. But He is quite sharp on the sums, pointed out mistakes of my own; hard to believe isn't it?

Dan the quality of a post is not measured by the amount of smilies, but hey, anything you can do I can do better

Stop it Duke - you're trolling.

 

[Dan Murray]

My noble Lord,

How about I look at your Junior Cert English instead?

Ireland were indeed....yours trully......

Those stones in glasshouses throw shouldn't.

Ok - on a serious note, can someone send me a link to the official EU figures please? The link in post 4 seems to be from Bloomberg - I'm looking for a link to this data in an official EU site. In case the Duke gets an anxiety attack, I'd just like to understand the true figures in all of this.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

OMG your pal has got me on a grammatical mistake. I deeply apologise Nige everything I said must have been in error.

 

[Dan Murray]

Ok - on a serious note, can someone send me a link to the official EU figures please? The link in post 4 seems to be from Bloomberg - I'm looking for a link to this data in an official EU site. In case the Duke gets an anxiety attack, I'd just like to understand the true figures in all of this.

I would appreciate it if somebody could provide this link please.

 

[Wahaay]

I would appreciate it if somebody could provide this link please.

Sorry Dan I don't have the time to hunt through the mountains of EU stats but I'd trust Bloomberg's graphic.
The UK’s contribution to the EU was £2.7bn in 2008, rising to £3.8bn in 2009, £7.2bn in 2010, £7.5bn in 2011, £8.5bn in 2012 and £11.3bn in 2013.In other words it quadrupled in 5 years.The net figures take into account the UK’s rebate.
Just one of the reasons behind the Brexit vote.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

I am going to use these spreadsheets in the following

Select "Operating Budgetary Balance", 2013, "EUR Millions". The situation regarding the Rebate is extremely confusing, most sites suggesting it is after the Budget calculations. I think that these "official" figures are net of the Rebate. Nonetheless you will see a sharp difference between these figures for 2013 showing the UK Net Contribution at €8.6B vs Wahaay's figure above of £11.3B (c. €13B). I think the Bloomberg exhibit for 2015 is after the rebate.

Now for a more interesting exhibit. Change selection from "EUR Millions" to "% GNI". You will notice that nobody, icluding the UK, pays more than 0.5% of their national income. It is very hard to quantify the benefits of being in a Single Market of 500M people but most if not all economsts would put it a good bit higher than 0.5%. The other fascintaing thing about this chart is that the "above the line" percentages are much higher i.e. the recipient countries get really meaningful injections, as we in Ireland know from past happy experience. Of course these subsidies of the "developing" countries are not entirely altruistic. The expectation is that as they get pulled up they will contribute to the greater benefit of all and hopefully the budgetary cross subsidies will lessen. If the UK has been paying more than its fair share of these cross subsidies it could find itself falling off the train just as it builds up cruising speed, and that could be a hard fall indeed.

Now it does seem that Ms May will signal tomorrow exit from the Customs Union and the Single Market. And really if control of immigration is a red line then there is no choice - Brexit means Brexit. If control of immigration was on the table along with continued membership of the single market the UK would have bitten Brussels hand off for that, budget injustice notwithstanding. It is really rather pathetic to hear arguments that leaving CU and SM is actually a chosen economic strategy to carve out much more lucrative markets at the other end of the globe.

The FX markets are buying none of that. Sterling continues to suffer. Nothing has actually changed yet regarding terms of trade, rather the depreciation is in anticipation of poor trade arrangements down the line. One shudders to thing what sterling will be when the new trade arrangements are actually in place.

And no, none of this is good for Ireland.

 

[jjm]

WE may /Will end up buying more from the Uk after brexit. Same language.Add in lower costs/tax.British firms provide the best services in the EU great at following up and always very helpful.They really know how to do business and look after there customers in Ireland.Always take the long term view. They will have no problem working any new trade arrangements and providing value to there Irish customers .I expect balance of trade to go the other way unless Ireland cuts it cost base I don't see this happening .Not good for Ireland our cost base will kill us once Uk leave.

 

[Leo]

WE may /Will end up buying more from the Uk after brexit.

What are you basing that on? Current numbers show the UK share of imports remaining steady at 26% over the past year (dropped from 30% in 2014) despite the significant price drop. If we're not spending more there when it's cheaper, how do you figure we 'may / will' end up buying more if levies are introduced?

British firms provide the best services in the EU great at following up and always very helpful. They really know how to do business and look after there customers in Ireland.Always take the long term view.

Again, what are you basing that on? In my limited experience the German's leave many UK businesses in the shade.

 

[Firefly]

The British respect the Germans for their work ethic,professionalism and penalty-taking.The Germans respect our business acumen and entrepreneurship.It's why they sell more cars to us than any other country in Europe.
We both,however, feel sympathy and a degree of pity for those countries unable to mange their own economic affairs to such an extent that others have to come in and do it for them.

The 1976 IMF Crisis was a financial crisis in the United Kingdom in 1976 which forced the government to borrow $3.9 billion from the International Monetary Fund (IMF),[1] the largest loan ever requested from the IMF.[2]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_IMF_Crisis

 

[Firefly]

More seriously though, the Brexit vote is seen as arrogant. It is not the arrogance of the working class folk of Sunderland or Newcastle. It is the stick in craw arrogance of the British print media and sections of the Tory party who have always believed that wogs begin at Calais.

I was watching John Redmond last week on Newsnight (I think). Arrogance personified.

 

[Firefly]

@Wahaay, I would be interesting in hearing why, if Brexit is a good thing, sterling has weakened so much?

An interesting definition from Investopia on weak currencies:

A weak currency, whose value has depreciated significantly over time, is commonly found in nations with poor economic fundamentals, which may include a high rate of inflation, chronic current account and budget deficits, and sluggish economic growth. Nations with weak currencies usually have much higher levels of imports compared with their exports, resulting in more supply than demand for such currencies on international foreign exchange markets if they are freely traded currencies. While a temporary weak phase in a major currency provides a pricing advantage to its exporters, such a benefit seldom accrues to exporters in weak currency nations since other factors such as high input costs and bureaucratic red tape may offset this advantage.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/weak-currency.asp

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

The Germans respect our business acumen and entrepreneurship.It's why they sell more cars to us than any other country in Europe.

Thanks Firefly for pointing this one out to me. For a start it seems like a bit of a non sequitur, I doubt whether German's vet their customers for business acumen and entrepreneurship.

But let's consider the stat (presuming it is true) to see if there are any gems of wisdom to be gleaned. The only contenders in terms of population for country of greatest German car exports are UK, France and Italy. Maybe the UK win that dubious honour because French and Italians like their own manufactured cars. As one who had the misfortune to once own a Rover I have great sympathy in their lack of patriotism when it comes to car purchase, buying foreign in this case certainly does display business acumen. The Germans needn't worry, the Brits will still prefer Mercs to Rovers no matter what the tariff imposed.

Wahaay folk are starting to gang up on you Where is Dan when you need him?

 

[Purple]

Thanks Firefly for pointing this one out to me. For a start it seems like a bit of a non sequitur, I doubt whether German's vet their customers for business acumen and entrepreneurship.

But let's consider the stat (presuming it is true) to see if there are any gems of wisdom to be gleaned. The only contenders in terms of population for country of greatest German car exports are UK, France and Italy. Maybe the UK win that dubious honour because French and Italians like their own manufactured cars. As one who had the misfortune to once own a Rover I have great sympathy in their lack of patriotism when it comes to car purchase, buying foreign in this case certainly does display business acumen. The Germans needn't worry, the Brits will still prefer Mercs to Rovers no matter what the tariff imposed.

There are no British car manufacturers.
There are lots of foreign companies making cars in the UK (Japanese, American, German and Indian etc.).

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

Nice one Purple. However, when folk expressed worry that they might be buying a British "Monday morning car" I don't think they were expressing a fear that the Japanese owners had rather too much Sake at the week end.

 

[Purple]

Nice one Purple. However, when folk expressed worry that they might be buying a British "Monday morning car" I don't think they were expressing a fear that the Japanese owners had rather too much Sake at the week end.

What they need to realise is that the quality of the production line, i.e. the design, in-process quality checks, standard of the robots etc, is more important than the country the line is in or the nationality of the people running the line. To that end the German, Japanese and American designed and built lines are superior to those of the old British companies. The sector requires massive capital expenditure so it is no accident that Jaguar started producing vastly superior cars since they were bought by their current Indian owner (one of the biggest and oldest Engineering firms in the world) or that Mini has been such a success since it was bought by BMW.

 

[Wahaay]

There are no British car manufacturers.
There are lots of foreign companies making cars in the UK (Japanese, American, German and Indian etc.).

Really ?
Ever heard of McClaren ? They win the occasional race here and there.
Globalisation means car companies all over the world are owned by foreign companies.
But in terms of what motor vehicles are actually manufactured in Britain you might be surprised.And now that sterling is back to a reasonable level it's one reason why the UK's exports are booming.
Which helps secure the jobs of some of those Irish people who have been forced to emigrate to the UK because their own government has failed them.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=vmcmqTAu6b8

Of course Ireland has an illustrious history of making things... perhaps someone on here could take a pen to the back of a postage stamp and furnish me with a list.
I'll start the ball rolling.
Clonakilty Pudding.