Brexit 2017

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Wahaay

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So six months after the Brexit vote and the UK economy is confounding all expectations,including that of the Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney.
Indeed the governor now thinks Brexit could harm the EU more than it harms the UK.
Certainly the likes of Jean-Claude Druncker have toned down their aggressive posturing,presumably after Merkel had a quiet word in their shell-like.
It is worth pointing out that after Germany the UK's net contribution to the EU is greater than the other 26 countries combined.
 
Brexit hasn't happened yet though and the UK's debt levels are still very high.
I hope the current outlook remains though and the UK does remain strong as it is by far our biggest export market.
 
So six months after the Brexit vote and the UK economy is confounding all expectations,including that of the Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney.
Indeed the governor now thinks Brexit could harm the EU more than it harms the UK.
Certainly the likes of Jean-Claude Druncker have toned down their aggressive posturing,presumably after Merkel had a quiet word in their shell-like.
It is worth pointing out that after Germany the UK's net contribution to the EU is greater than the other 26 countries combined.
Welcome Nige, bad luck not getting that vacancy of ambassador to the EU:p

So for a few facts;
Wiki said:
Net contribution to EU budget in 2016 Germany 9.5bn, France 5.9bn, UK 4.9bn, Italy 4.4bn
Of course your post-truth assertion is possibly correct in the same way that I, and persumably yourself, am able to say that my net contribution to the Irish budget is greater than the rest of ye put together.

I'm no economics expert but if you told me that my currency would be devalued by 20% immediately because of long term fears for the economy but that absolutely nothing else would change in the short term (as Purple says, still in the EU) I would reckon on a short term mega bounce; actually the reality is surprisingly muted.

Possibly Brexit will be worse for the EU than Britain, hardly an endorsement in itself. But the effects on 400m people will be proportionatey much less than the effects on 50m (excluding Scotland and NI here:rolleyes:).
 
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Welcome Nige, bad luck not getting that vacancy of ambassador to the EU:p

So for a few facts;
Of course your post-truth assertion is possibly correct in the same way that I, and persumably yourself, am able to say that my net contribution to the Irish budget is greater than the rest of ye put together.

I'm no economics expert but if you told me that my currency would be devalued by 20% immediately because of long term fears for the economy but that absolutely nothing else would change in the short term (as Purple says, still in the EU) I would reckon on a short term mega bounce; actually the reality is surprisingly muted.

Possibly Brexit will be worse for the EU than Britain, hardly an endorsement in itself. But the effects on 400m people will be proportionatey much less than the effects on 50m (excluding Scotland and NI here:rolleyes:).

https://i1.wp.com/order-order.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/eu-£250-miillion.png?w=540&ssl=1
I use the European Commission as the source for my figures.Add up the debits and credits of every member state from France to Poland bar Germany and it comes to a figure less than Britain’s EU contribution.
As you say,you are no economics expert so I think I'll put my trust in the Governor of the Bank of England if you don't mind,even if he did allow himself to be swayed by Project Fear during the Referendum campaign.
As for Sterling it's now at levels that the IMF recommended it should be at some 18 months before the Referendum - exporters love it and so does the FTSE which is good news for millions of people whose pensions and savings are tied up in stocks and shares.
Oh,and the economy is booming and manufacturing is outstripping expectations as the UK economy becomes the fastest growing in the G7.
Should Ireland really pin its hopes on being looked after benevolently by the EU - as Phil Hogan recommends and we've seen how well that went in the past - or should the government be waking up to the fact that its fortunes are inextricably linked with its nearest neighbour and using this accordingly to get a decent re-negotiation of the bail-out terms ?
 
Wahaay there are lies, damned lies, statistics and post-truths (do you like that?:rolleyes:)

As with all post truths, the ones you cite whilst technically true are meaningless but seem to convey great meaning. Two big deficiencies in your presentations of the figures.

Your statement that the UK made net contributions greater than all the rest combined excluding Germany but including for example Poland is true of almost every other counry barring Poland, just as my net contribution to the Irish budget is greater than the whole of the rest of Ireland combined. My economics may not be great but I can do basic sums.

But let us consider only those countries that made positive net contributions - FR, NL, IT, SE, AT, DK and FI. Possibly the UK paid more than all these combined. Not by a long shot.

Now for the big post porkie. The UK get 66% of their Net Contribution rebated under Maggie's deal:eek:. Why do you conveniently ignore that? The UK had (and have) a marvellous deal in the EU. Practically every expert agreed that Brexit would not not be good economically for Britain. I still belong to the old school that believes that experts generally know more about these things than me and 2% GDP growth in sterling terms for 2016 after a 20% devaluation does nothing to convince me that the experts got it wrong. Nor do the musings of a civil servant who likes to say those things that please his current masters.
 
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The bigger picture also needs to be factored into the overall cost/ benefit analysis. Exchequer figures look good now, boosted by a sharp rise in exports since the devaluation.

EU funding has significantly boosted economies (including our own) to the point where these economies now consume more UK goods and services, all resulting in increased revenue. Access to the market has allowed UK business to flourish, look at the big London financials for example and look at how many of them are now considering or even executing exit or reduction plans.

What has happened to inward investment flows since the vote? After Brexit? What will happen UK businesses when they lose access to low cost staff?

What about the secret deal with Nissan the keep production in Sunderland? What is that costing the UK government, even in advance of Brexit?

I think it's still way too early to call winners and losers before the negotiations have even begun.
 
I agree it's far too early to know the outcome which is why all those catastrophic predictions about the UK's economy,some of which are still being made,were so wide of the mark.
Interestingly opinion polls,for what they're worth,show virtually no change in public attitudes to Brexit.Buyer's remorse simply hasn't happened.
Likewise all this talk about Prime Minister May not having a clue about Brexit is laughable.Every government department has been undertaking a massive review of how Brexit is like to affect every aspect of British life.These things take a huge amount of time as does setting up the Brexit government department and the myriad of trade negotiators who will be involved in the discussions.
But a hard Brexit has always looked likely in my view.Without FOM membership of the single market is impossible.
 
The bigger picture also needs to be factored into the overall cost/ benefit analysis. Exchequer figures look good now, boosted by a sharp rise in exports since the devaluation.

I agree and if there are any trade tariffs imposed on UK imports into the EU post Brexit, then I would expect those rosy export figures to fall off..
 
I agree and if there are any trade tariffs imposed on UK imports into the EU post Brexit, then I would expect those rosy export figures to fall off..

Tariffs work both ways,of course.
An extra 3-4% is not going to make that much difference and has already been factored in by the fall in sterling.
And then there are all the trade deals with the rest of the world that the UK will then be able to negotiate.
And the money saved by not funding the rest of the EU.
 
Given the Tory party's inbred hubris allied to their historical distrust of all things European & Johnny Foreigner then surely it's hugely previous to predict how Brexit will impact the U.K. .

Give it a couple of years Wahaay & then get back to us.
 
Given the Tory party's inbred hubris allied to their historical distrust of all things European & Johnny Foreigner then surely it's hugely previous to predict how Brexit will impact the U.K. .

Give it a couple of years Wahaay & then get back to us.

If there was a historical distrust of Johnny Foreigner why have so many Irish economic migrants been welcomed so warmly into the UK ?
It's a lazy trope I'm afraid.
 
The times of No Irish , no Blacks , no Dogs seem a distant memory alright however the massive rise in hate related crime post Brexit does not augur well for the future .
I'm afraid the little Englander syndrome is back and flourishing.
 
You'd be amazed at how many Irish people I know in the UK who voted for Brexit as well. ....;)
 
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Surely overshadowed by the amount of Irish people in the UK that voted against it ?
After all the only verifiable figure for Irish votes were the 56 % of people in Northern Ireland who voted against it & of course the 44% who were for it.
 
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Tariffs work both ways,of course.
An extra 3-4% is not going to make that much difference and has already been factored in by the fall in sterling.
And then there are all the trade deals with the rest of the world that the UK will then be able to negotiate.
And the money saved by not funding the rest of the EU.

Given the sudden drop in sterling I would have expected exports to rise in the short term. However, for any companies considering a significant investment, I would think they would now have to seriously consider locating within the EU..
 
If there was a historical distrust of Johnny Foreigner why have so many Irish economic migrants been welcomed so warmly into the UK ?
It's a lazy trope I'm afraid.
Many locals don't realise we are a different country :D
 
Given the sudden drop in sterling I would have expected exports to rise in the short term. However, for any companies considering a significant investment, I would think they would now have to seriously consider locating within the EU..

You mean like the Japanese investing £32billion in chip-maker Arm Holdings,discount firm Poundland bought for £600m by a South African retailer,an American company purchasing the Odeon/UCI cinema chain for £920m,GSK investing £250m and many others including that giant Nissan investment and Snapchat making London its global base outside the USA citing the UK's strong creative industry.

Some companies,particularly financial services,could leave but so far it has all been could-bes and planning-tos.

The Remoaners are holding out hope for a crash and the UK changing its mind by the million but it hasn't materialised yet.
 
Surely overshadowed by the amount of Irish people in the UK that voted against it ?
After all the only verifiable figure for Irish votes were the 56 % of people in Northern Ireland who voted against it & of course the 44% who were for it.

That's still an awful lot of Irish Little Englanders :)
 
Tariffs work both ways,of course.
An extra 3-4% is not going to make that much difference and has already been factored in by the fall in sterling.

We haven't seen the longer term impact of the effective 20% rise in the cost of imports yet, these take time to filter through the system. Given the significant trade deficit with the EU, that will cause significant pain even without any tariffs.
 
You mean like the Japanese investing £32billion in chip-maker Arm Holdings

It was £24.3 billion, and more importantly, they didn't invest, they bought it out taking advantage of the currency devaluation. They made 5 year commitments in terms of workforce numbers and the company HQ remaining in the UK, but what happens after that? Even immediately SoftBank are now free to move ARM's IP & lisencing revenue where ever they like.

...that giant Nissan investment

That wasn't really a giant investment though, it's the standard the re-tooling costs for the existing Sunderland plant to set them up for production of the next gen Qashqai and X-Trail models. Staffing levels will remain unchanged, and they only agreed after the UK government agreed to absorb all levies imposed on their exports, which could be up to 10% if they fail to agree trade deals as is looking increasingly likely. Those same assurances are being given to other UK manufactures who export ~80% of total production. Could be expensive.
 
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