Brexit 2017

[Wahaay]

It was £24.3 billion, and more importantly, they didn't invest, they bought it out taking advantage of the currency devaluation. They made 5 year commitments in terms of workforce numbers and the company HQ remaining in the UK, but what happens after that? Even immediately SoftBank are now free to move ARM's IP & lisencing revenue where ever they like.



That wasn't really a giant investment though, it's the standard the re-tooling costs for the existing Sunderland plant to set them up for production of the next gen Qashqai and X-Trail models. Staffing levels will remain unchanged, and they only agreed after the UK government agreed to absorb all levies imposed on their exports, which could be up to 10% if they fail to agree trade deals as is looking increasingly likely. Those same assurances are being given to other UK manufactures who export ~80% of total production. Could be expensive.

My bad for getting the Arm takeover figure wrong but the rest of your post is hilarious.
In both those cases if the investment hadn't happened you would be declaring that as evidence the Brexit vote is harming the UK.
All the economic data so far has confounded every single warning of doom issued before the vote.

http://news.sky.com/story/business-investment-helps-uk-growth-stay-firm-after-brexit-vote-10671206

 

[Leo]

My bad for getting the Arm takeover figure wrong but the rest of your post is hilarious.

Classifying the ARM takeover and Nissan agreeing to continue to pay upkeep expenses on their existing plant as major investments endorsing the UK economy is laughable. How many of ARM's shareholders were UK based? Much of that takeover money will never make its way to the UK economy. I doubt there are too many remain campaigners that are too happy about the gem of the UK technology industry falling into foreign ownership. There's a lot of unrest also about what the car maker deals will cost in the long term.

In both those cases if the investment hadn't happened you would be declaring that as evidence the Brexit vote is harming the UK.

I didn't say them happening was evidence of harm occurring...

 

[Gerry Canning]

The real Fallout of Brexit for all countries cannot be quantified yet.
All This waffle that the Uk hasn,t collapsed and is still doing well means Brexit hasn,t been applied yet, nor is Brexits good/bad outcome known
.
I suggest Uk is turning inwards and that is not good. If Brexit turns sour , as it may well do , it ends up as a (protectionistic ) leaning race twix Europe and Uk.

We are still in (phoney) war phase .
I just cannot see UK having the knowledge or corporate skill to break from Eu in any way that the Exiteers seem to require.
I just cannot see EU being seen to (roll) over on Uk demands.

The talk of Quotas/Tariffs is not a simple matter .
eg . If UK ends up in hard Brexit, they end up in WTO (world trade organisation) rules, but WTO have exemptions etc, that are not simple.
Most products are made up of a multiplicity of imported parts from different jurisdictions, , so the Uk has to get separate leeway /charges etc on each part , whilst ensuring each leeway/charge is not tramping on the toes of another country.
Given the World wide nature of supply chain of goods , it seems to me Brexit ain,t a smart move for any of us !.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

Surely overshadowed by the amount of Irish people in the UK that voted against it ?
After all the only verifiable figure for Irish votes were the 56 % of people in Northern Ireland who voted against it & of course the 44% who were for it.

Very true and since this is about ethnicity note that the great bulk of that 44% were Stottish planters.

 

[Wahaay]

Classifying the ARM takeover and Nissan agreeing to continue to pay upkeep expenses on their existing plant as major investments endorsing the UK economy is laughable. How many of ARM's shareholders were UK based? Much of that takeover money will never make its way to the UK economy. I doubt there are too many remain campaigners that are too happy about the gem of the UK technology industry falling into foreign ownership. There's a lot of unrest also about what the car maker deals will cost in the long term.



I didn't say them happening was evidence of harm occurring...

A lot of unrest from who ?
A government secures the long-term future of a major car manufacturer and thousands of jobs and you think they should be criticised ?
And if they didn't secure it they'd also be criticised ?
This encapsulates the sheer banality of UK Remoaners unwilling to accept the Referendum result.

 

[Wahaay]

The real Fallout of Brexit for all countries cannot be quantified yet.
All This waffle that the Uk hasn,t collapsed and is still doing well means Brexit hasn,t been applied yet, nor is Brexits good/bad outcome known
.
I suggest Uk is turning inwards and that is not good. If Brexit turns sour , as it may well do , it ends up as a (protectionistic ) leaning race twix Europe and Uk.

We are still in (phoney) war phase .
I just cannot see UK having the knowledge or corporate skill to break from Eu in any way that the Exiteers seem to require.
I just cannot see EU being seen to (roll) over on Uk demands.

The talk of Quotas/Tariffs is not a simple matter .
eg . If UK ends up in hard Brexit, they end up in WTO (world trade organisation) rules, but WTO have exemptions etc, that are not simple.
Most products are made up of a multiplicity of imported parts from different jurisdictions, , so the Uk has to get separate leeway /charges etc on each part , whilst ensuring each leeway/charge is not tramping on the toes of another country.
Given the World wide nature of supply chain of goods , it seems to me Brexit ain,t a smart move for any of us !.

It's a smart move for the UK.As for Ireland this country lost any credibility and influence in Europe the day it accepted the bailout.Actually,it happened even before that with the second Lisbon Treaty vote when the country was threatened into changing its mind by a strutting martinet from France.

 

[Purple]

It's a smart move for the UK.As for Ireland this country lost any credibility and influence in Europe the day it accepted the bailout.Actually,it happened even before that with the second Lisbon Treaty vote when the country was threatened into changing its mind by a strutting martinet from France.

I agree that we have no credibility with the EU but that doesn't matter one way or the other when it comes to whether Brexit will turn out to be a good idea economically for the UK.
It will almost certainly be an economic disaster for Northern Ireland.

 

[Gerry Canning]

Smart move ?

Forget about {martinets}{Lisbon} .You may well have a point in both these propositions .

The reason to forget past issues is to look @ things today, not what we maybe should have done.
UK risks having to work (negativelyish) with the rest of us.
The World has got much more interlinked this last decade , so those that wish to (protect) their own interests eg Uk and maybe in America with Mr Trump, need to be very aware of unintended consequences for them & us, and I fear Uk brexiteers may be away on a ill thought out policy..

Since 1973 , when these Islands joined the EU , living standards have improved a lot. Good strong social legislation has been negotiated through.

On leaving UK risks a lot and I have seen little in the way of hard facts that leaving will improve matters for any of us.

I fear UK wants to trumpet (forgive the pun) to make Britain Great , without realizing what pluses being in Europe means ?

 

[Wahaay]

Smart move ?

Forget about {martinets}{Lisbon} .You may well have a point in both these propositions .

The reason to forget past issues is to look @ things today, not what we maybe should have done.
UK risks having to work (negativelyish) with the rest of us.
The World has got much more interlinked this last decade , so those that wish to (protect) their own interests eg Uk and maybe in America with Mr Trump, need to be very aware of unintended consequences for them & us, and I fear Uk brexiteers may be away on a ill thought out policy..

Since 1973 , when these Islands joined the EU , living standards have improved a lot. Good strong social legislation has been negotiated through.

On leaving UK risks a lot and I have seen little in the way of hard facts that leaving will improve matters for any of us.

I fear UK wants to trumpet (forgive the pun) to make Britain Great , without realizing what pluses being in Europe means ?

Let's put aside for a moment the idea that the whole European project is in crisis, from a trade point of view Europe has been the worst performing continent on the planet for some time now.
As a country with the 5 or 6th strongest GDP in the world and an economy which is currently performing better than any other in the G7 Brexit will enable the UK to strike trade deals that otherwise would never happen if it remained in the EU.
Trade aside,it would also have control of its borders.
Ireland is extremely lucky not to have communities straining under the burden of a massive influx of immigrants putting pressure on schools,housing and local services.
They are all over the UK particularly in the North which is why so many of the traditional Labour constituencies there voted Leave.
And it's not a question of being a Little Englander.These communities have welcomed immigrants since the 1960s.
And try telling them Brexit will be bad for their pocket.For many of them it can't get any worse.

 

[Leo]

A lot of unrest from who ?

Opposition parties and commentators on both sides of the Brexit debate. It's well covered in the UK media.

A government secures the long-term future of a major car manufacturer and thousands of jobs and you think they should be criticised ?

Well, it's a 5-10 year term at most before re-tooling is required again. You're the one who seemed to be suggesting this was a 'giant investment' that somehow vindicated the decision and the health of the post-referendum economy. I never said they should be criticised.

This encapsulates the sheer banality of UK Remoaners unwilling to accept the Referendum result.

I've no interest in Brexit being a failure, I've a lot of friends and family living in the UK, travel there several times each year and have lived there for a number of years. But I do find it fascinating that a certain core of those who defend Brexit refuse to engage and examine the potential downsides instead choosing to bury their heads in the sand and assume that the UK will get all they ask for and more in complex negotiations with multiple international parties that have yet to even start officially. What's even funnier is when those who deny any potential for a downside attack those who were anti-Brexit who now refuse to accept any potential upside.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

Nige I refer to your OP. I must admit I was initially taken aback by the claim that the "UK made net contributions greater than all the rest put together excluding Germany" or words to that effect. But on second thoughts it occurred to me that this was completely vacuous (true of course, I would never accuse anyone of lying, but devoid of any meaning). I have now checked using 2014 official figures and this assertion can be made of every single member state, including Ireland, except Poland.

I can think of a few reasons why you might have included this in your OP:

1. You yourself are truly impressed by it, not realising its mathematical triviality.
2. You knew how meaningless it was but thought to pull a post-truth on unwary AAM listeners. You didnt bargain for the Duke
3. You are a troll.

Care to enlighten which of these is closest the truth or to give any other explanation?

 

[Wahaay]

Nige I refer to your OP. I must admit I was initially taken aback by the claim that the "UK made net contributions greater than all the rest put together excluding Germany" or words to that effect. But on second thoughts it occurred to me that this was completely vacuous (true of course, I would never accuse anyone of lying, but devoid of any meaning). I have now checked using 2014 official figures and this assertion can be made of every single member state, including Ireland, except Poland.

I can think of a few reasons why you might have included this in your OP:

1. You yourself are truly impressed by it, not realising its mathematical triviality.
2. You knew how meaningless it was but thought to pull a post-truth on unwary AAM listeners. You didnt bargain for the Duke
3. You are a troll.

Care to enlighten which of these is closest the truth or to give any other explanation?

Let me put it another way.
After Brexit the EU will lose its second biggest contributor.12 billion big ones a year out of their budget.
You can see why they're unhappy.
And AAM listeners ? I didn't realise this website was a radio station.
Pip pip !

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

Nige please drop the post-truths, vulnerable folk are listening After the rebate the UK pay net c. €4bn to the EU budget, almost a quarter of Germany's net contribution, well behind France and tying joint 3/4/5 with the Netherlands and Italy.

Yes, the rest of the EU are upset and from that upset we will see two developments. The first good development is already visible. Opinion polls on continental Europe suddenly reversed the trend and became more pro EU and more pro Euro as a sort of fingers to the arrogant Brits; I believe that Brexit has stopped the populist march on the continent (we will soon see). In fact, a worst outcome would have been a Remain win for then the pressure to hold referendums in other countries would be immense and we could see much worse disasters such as Frexit or even Gexit. The ill conceived Brexit referendum has given referendums a bad name and other than the recurring ref on abortion in these parts, we will see much less of that nonsense in future.

The second development is not so good. The upset felt by the other members at being spurned will translate into a very acrimonious divorce. The likes of the big girls such as Germany and France might be prepared to humour the Brits, after all they have been doing so ever since Maggie. But the likes of Poland who take the Brexit vote as a personal insult will not be nearly so indulgent. And remember all 27 have a veto.

The Brits better get on their bikes quick preparing to sell pre packed steak and kidney pud to Indians.

 

[Wahaay]

Nige please drop the post-truths, vulnerable folk are listening After the rebate the UK pay net c. €4bn to the EU budget, almost a quarter of Germany's net contribution, well behind France and tying joint 3/4/5 with the Netherlands and Italy.

Yes, the rest of the EU are upset and from that upset we will see two developments. The first good development is already visible. Opinion polls on continental Europe suddenly reversed the trend and became more pro EU and more pro Euro as a sort of fingers to the arrogant Brits; I believe that Brexit has stopped the populist march on the continent (we will soon see). In fact, a worst outcome would have been a Remain win for then the pressure to hold referendums in other countries would be immense and we could see much worse disasters such as Frexit or even Gexit. The ill conceived Brexit referendum has given referendums a bad name and other than the recurring ref on abortion in these parts, we will see much less of that nonsense in future.

The second development is not so good. The upset felt by the other members at being spurned will translate into a very acrimonious divorce. The likes of the big girls such as Germany and France might be prepared to humour the Brits, after all they have been doing so ever since Maggie. But the likes of Poland who take the Brexit vote as a personal insult will not be nearly so indulgent. And remember all 27 have a veto.

The Brits better get on their bykes quick preparing to sell pre packed steak and kidney pud to Indians.

It is ironic that having celebrated 2016 as the anniversary of Ireland starting to become an independent nation free to pursue its own governance from outsiders the British who voted to do the same in a democratic mandate should be accused of being arrogant.
Don't you think ?
It's bikes by the way.

 

[Wahaay]

Opposition parties and commentators on both sides of the Brexit debate. It's well covered in the UK media.



Well, it's a 5-10 year term at most before re-tooling is required again. You're the one who seemed to be suggesting this was a 'giant investment' that somehow vindicated the decision and the health of the post-referendum economy. I never said they should be criticised.



I've no interest in Brexit being a failure, I've a lot of friends and family living in the UK, travel there several times each year and have lived there for a number of years. But I do find it fascinating that a certain core of those who defend Brexit refuse to engage and examine the potential downsides instead choosing to bury their heads in the sand and assume that the UK will get all they ask for and more in complex negotiations with multiple international parties that have yet to even start officially. What's even funnier is when those who deny any potential for a downside attack those who were anti-Brexit who now refuse to accept any potential upside.

The problem,of course,is that no-one knows what is likely to happen to either the UK,EU or world economy in five years or even two years time.
Expert predictions in the economy and political polling has proved to be woefully inadequate.
What is fairly predictable is the EU shows no signs of wishing to reform itself,freedom of movement as a concept is fatally flawed and large parts of Southern Europe show no signs of recovering from the economic distress caused by fundamental flaws in how the EU is run.
I can see why Ireland has options open.But for an economy the size of the UKs it's a different matter.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

It is ironic that having celebrated 2016 as the anniversary of Ireland starting to become an independent nation free to pursue its own governance from outsiders the British who voted to do the same in a democratic mandate should be accused of being arrogant.
Don't you think ?
It's bikes by the way.

Spelling corrected, thanks. But you gave me an idea, selling bikes to Indians may indeed be a viable future for the Brits

More seriously though, the Brexit vote is seen as arrogant. It is not the arrogance of the working class folk of Sunderland or Newcastle. It is the stick in craw arrogance of the British print media and sections of the Tory party who have always believed that wogs begin at Calais. They just can't accept paying third fiddle to Germany who they trounced both in 1945 and 1966 and to France whom they saved from said Germans. I am not saying I don't sympathise with them, I too would have been wondering where it all went wrong as by the 60s these losers of WWII (throw in italy as well) were winning the peace and all because of that damn common market.

 

[Wahaay]

Spelling corrected, thanks. But you gave me an idea, selling bikes to Indians may indeed be a viable future for the Brits

More seriously though, the Brexit vote is seen as arrogant. It is not the arrogance of the working class folk of Sunderland or Newcastle. It is the stick in craw arrogance of the British print media and sections of the Tory party who have always believed that wogs begin at Calais. They just can't accept paying third fiddle to Germany who they trounced both in 1945 and 1966 and to France whom they saved from said Germans. I am not saying I don't sympathise with them, I too would have been wondering where it all went wrong as by the 60s these losers of WWII (throw in italy as well) were winning the peace and all because of that damn common market.

Apart from recognising your extensive use of cliches I'm afraid you're wrong in almost every aspect.
The British respect the Germans for their work ethic,professionalism and penalty-taking.The Germans respect our business acumen and entrepreneurship.It's why they sell more cars to us than any other country in Europe.
We both,however, feel sympathy and a degree of pity for those countries unable to mange their own economic affairs to such an extent that others have to come in and do it for them.
If you catch my drift.

 

[cremeegg]

It is worth pointing out that after Germany the UK's net contribution to the EU is greater than the other 26 countries combined.

Did you realise how misleading this is when you posted it, if so you should apologise to those of us who post here to the best of our knowledge or understanding.

If you did not know how misleading is then you should thank the poster who pointed it out before apologising to the rest of us..

 

[jjm]

Brexit before it happens is costing Ireland over half a billion euro in 2016 because we were not able to pass on loss between Euro and Sterling. Irelands wages Around 21 Euro per hr UK wages around 15 Euro, The UK have done a good Job of holding there cost base over last few years .Gap is going to increase again in 2017 .Ireland will not be able to Manage the fall out from Brexit like the UK will,

 

[Wahaay]

Did you realise how misleading this is when you posted it, if so you should apologise to those of us who post here to the best of our knowledge or understanding.

If you did not know how misleading is then you should thank the poster who pointed it out before apologising to the rest of us..

Apologise for what ?
It's a simple statement of fact that if you add up the debits and credits of every member state from France to Poland bar Germany it comes to a figure less than Britain’s EU contribution.
Excluding Germany, Britain’s contribution is more than the total net contribution of the 26 other EU states combined.
And that's not including the Loans to Ireland Act 2010 that allowed for a bilateral loan of £3.2 billion to this country, along with a low interest rate that was further cut in July 2011 and later in June 2012.
Arrogant Brits ? I don't recall anyone else in Europe stepping forward during Ireland's time of need.