Who will form the next government? - The results

[joe sod]

I just worry with the virus in China, and we're probably about due a global recession... I wouldn't want to be the ones in office when that hits.
If FF & FG are in there together at that time, they'll end up so weak SF would have free reign after next election.

I think there are many in FF also wary of this aspect as they were caught full square and circle in the GFC , and became victims of their own populist policies. SF successfully reminded voters of this just as voters were forgiving and forgetting about this . I think there is a very strong desire within FF to hang SF on their very own populism especially as a recession is probably due now anyways. I think this is genuine and not posturing .
Therefore I think there will be no government for a long time, the uncertainty will probably hit the irish economy somewhat especially as brexit wheeling and dealing is going on in the backround. Then as another election happens much later in the year, the lust for SF populism will have waned as reality starts to dawn. The fact that FF only got 38 seats rather than 45 or 50 they were expecting has changed everything,

 

[Laughahalla]

FF won 37 seats. Not 38. Just sayin'

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

FF won 37 seats. Not 38. Just sayin'

Tweedle dee/Tweedle dum won 72 seats, just sayin’

 

[WolfeTone]

Tweedle dee/Tweedle dum won 72 seats, just sayin’

Yep, and the posturing needs to end, they have a job to do, to get on with.

 

[Sophrosyne]

It took over 2 months of negotiations to form the last government and that was with just two parties.

 

[WolfeTone]

It took over 2 months of negotiations to form the last government and that was with just two parties

Very true, but the numbers are even worse now.
The numbers are not there for supply and confidence and there is zero appetite for it even if there were.

MM held the door ajar for a possible SF coalition last weekend, but has promptly shut that door today.
Whatever way you look at it, 2 out of the big 3 have to enter coalition together with others in order to form a government.
Its clear, FF/FG have ruled out SF.
So they need to just get on with forming a coalition between themselves. It is natural, it is just, so just get on with it. There are far too many important issues to be getting on with for this phony posturing to continue for much longer, let alone another two months.

If FF/FG go down the road of elongated negotiations, it will feed into the Tweedle-dum, Tweedle-dee narrative of same-old, same-old, politics.

 

[Sophrosyne]

Whatever way you look at it, 2 out of the big 3 have to enter coalition together with others in order to form a government.
Its clear, FF/FG have ruled out SF.
So they need to just get on with forming a coalition between themselves. It is natural, it is just, so just get on with it. There are far too many important issues to be getting on with for this phony posturing to continue for much longer, let alone another two months.

If FF/FG go down the road of elongated negotiations, it will feed into the Tweedle-dum, Tweedle-dee narrative of same-old, same-old, politics.

They would have to decide policies first and then who will coalesce with whom and on what basis and then various comprises.

I wouldn't hold my breath.

 

[WolfeTone]

I wouldn't hold my breath either. But the longer it takes and with SF on the sidelines willing to coalesce, but being excluded, the optics of that will only serve one interest, imo.

 

[Leper]

When I think about general elections down the years, the one thing that appalled me was the amount of people who would cast their vote for one political party for no other reason than their parents did the same. They called it a traditional vote and nobody questioned why they voted that way. Where I came from originally everybody knew what way each household voted (you could do an accurate tally weeks before any election). Things changed in Ireland and suddenly there were referenda that divided family opinions. My family was a traditional FF voting one. FF were guaranteed 9 Number Ones, 9 Number Twos etc. I did a personal poll of all my sisters/brothers and their offspring yesterday and if the results of this were known not only my parents, but Eamon de Valera, Jack Lynch would turn in their graves.

Micheál Martin last Sunday advised in his last interview of the day that he was a democrat and the people had spoken and he hoped to move forward meaning that he would engage with SF (earlier he had said the opposite). Yesterday his parliamentary mates pulled the rug from under him and now we are informed FF won't talk with SF under any circumstances. So much for going forward. Coincidentally, FF are now doing a U-turn from their pre-election position with FG. The Labour party (or what remains of them - I nearly said what's left of them) have vowed to speak with nobody in the formation of the next Dáil.

The country probably doesn't need another general election soon. If there is, things could be more difficult for FF and FG - nobody knows. But, one thing we certainly know is that there is an enormous Protest Vote out there. At last, I see a thinking electorate that refuses to be taken for granted. In my view, this is unique and something I had wished for years.

I'd love to know what way our politicians are thinking on where it all went wrong; not just the TD's and former TD's, but senators, party hacks, traditional voters etc.

We know what went on:- the retention of USC, homelessness, inability to acquire mortgages, retirement age, poverty, health etc and that is before we think about politicians claiming compensation from falls from a hotel swing, elected representatives claiming money for non travel, non attendance and voting for others who were not in attendance in the Dáil sessions.

I would advise Mr Martin and Mr Varadkar to think for once, because if they don't they won't have to get up early in the mornings for too long more.

 

[Purple]

At last, I see a thinking electorate that refuses to be taken for granted. In my view, this is unique and something I had wished for years.

Thinking? People want a massive cut in taxes and a massive increase in spending and they are thinking? Will you go 'way out of that.

 

[Leper]

Thinking? People want a massive cut in taxes and a massive increase in spending and they are thinking? Will you go 'way out of that.

I am away . . . . . . will be back for St-Patrick's Day.

 

[Purple]

I am away . . . . . . will be back for St-Patrick's Day.

Is the grass actually greened over there?

 

[elacsaplau]

(a) MM held the door ajar for a possible SF coalition last weekend, (b) but has promptly shut that door today.

WolfeTone,

I know that you appreciate precision. So, for the avoidance of doubt.....

(a) is totally clear but (b) is not coz it leaves the possible interpretation that it was MM himself who promptly shut the door - i.e. a proactive action on his part. My understanding is that the door was firmly shut for him - otherwise, FF members would be experiencing civil war again - this time, just within the confines of the party faithful! There would, as 't were, be little going forward, going forward!

 

[Leo]

Yesterday his parliamentary mates pulled the rug from under him and now we are informed FF won't talk with SF under any circumstances. So much for going forward.

The problem is SF are still so tainted, permeated, and by all accounts controlled by a subversive element heavily and actively involved in criminal activity that many would see engaging with them as a significant backward step for a modern society to take.

 

[WolfeTone]

My understanding is that the door was firmly shut for him

You are correct elacsaplau . That is a more accurate assessment of events occurring.

 

[josh8267]

Is the grass actually greened over there?

Greenest thing in Ireland has to be someone whose Name begins with a so called color
Talking about color
purple is not a color, there is no beam of pure light that looks purple
There is no light wavelength that corresponds to purple
The human eye can't tell what really going on ,Ireland must be full of purples
Purple is Oven ready having being plucked by the so call responsible people,

 

[Purple]

The problem is SF are still so tainted, permeated, and by all accounts controlled by a subversive element heavily and actively involved in criminal activity that many would see engaging with them as a significant backward step for a modern society to take.

I would not vote for a party which went into coalition with the Shinners.

 

[Leo]

I would not vote for a party which went into coalition with the Shinners.

I'd share that view, and from what MM has said over the last day or so, a lot of the FF faithful are of the same opinion.

 

[michaelm]

If FF & FG are in there together at that time, they'll end up so weak SF would have free reign after next election.

I don't buy the 'let them in this time in case they get in next time' argument. If a grand coalition can put a few, admittedly major, things right over 5 years they can face the electorate from a strong position. If the electorate then choose to scuttle the country then so be it.

 

[Leo]

If a grand coalition can put a few, admittedly major, things right over 5 years they can face the electorate from a strong position.

I see two challenges there. First, such a coalition lasting 5 years could be tricky. Secondly, the expectations of a growing section of the electorate are so unrealistic that anything actually achievable within a 5 year time frame will still be regarded as a failure.