Who will form the next government? - The results

michaelm

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While SF got a plurality of 1st pref. votes (24.5%) there is little difference between FF & FG (combined 43.1%) and, in the not to distant future, they will probably either have to merge or co-ordinate during elections, and get used to being in government together.
 

Sunny

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I don't buy the 'let them in this time in case they get in next time' argument. If a grand coalition can put a few, admittedly major, things right over 5 years they can face the electorate from a strong position. If the electorate then choose to scuttle the country then so be it.
It would destroy both FF and FG. Look at it at the moment. Look at how much money we are spending on houses and health. Everyone has been condemning FG for spending the windfall corporation tax to increase current spending. Social welfare increases. Very limited tax cuts. No changes to property tax. No water charges. And what happens when the election comes up? They get portrayed as right wing nut jobs and that message is accepted by a large proportion of the population. Health will not be solved in 5 years. Housing will not be solved in 5 years. By nobody and with any amount of money. And whatever would be achieved would be forgotten by the time SF reminded people how they 'won' the last election and were denied a chance of Government.

The only way I can see FG agreeing to a coalition with FF would be another election and the same result where is no other option but even then, I don't see a 5 year Government term. Let them run another election with everyone knowing that FF and FG will not enter Government with SF but will enter Government with each other if they have to. At least people will know the consequence of their vote when it comes to Government formation.
 

josh8267

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Thinking? People want a massive cut in taxes and a massive increase in spending and they are thinking? Will you go 'way out of that.
people expecting FF/FG to deliver on there promises causes the above do you agree,
 

Purple

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people expecting FF/FG to deliver on there promises causes the above do you agree,
Sheer stupidity caused the above. It's akin to finding that the chemo isn't curing your cancer as quickly as you'd hoped for and deciding that Crystals and Faith Healing is a better option. Thankfully there's a Darwinian outcome in that scenario.
 

josh8267

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Sheer stupidity caused the above. It's akin to finding that the chemo isn't curing your cancer as quickly as you'd hoped for and deciding that Crystals and Faith Healing is a better option. Thankfully there's a Darwinian outcome in that scenario.
So you are a Supporter of sheer stupidity aka FF/FG,
 

Purple

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So you are a Supporter of sheer stupidity aka FF/FG,
I've asked you multiple times who you voted for. Given the reality of who is on the ballot paper who do you choose?
If you are not going to answer that but rather persist with the half-smart comments dressed up as cynical wisdom then you're just wasting everyone's time posting here.
You don't support FF or FG or Labour or SF or the other far left parties. Who did you vote for?
 

Duke of Marmalade

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I don't buy the 'let them in this time in case they get in next time' argument. If a grand coalition can put a few, admittedly major, things right over 5 years they can face the electorate from a strong position. If the electorate then choose to scuttle the country then so be it.
Absolutely! This is what I have argued and is articulated much better by Stephen Collins in today's IT.
It is also pointed out that the combined republican/socialist vote here is no more than 30%. The combined FF/FG vote is 43%. In the UK Labour got 32% on their Marxist platform and the Tories got 43%. Everyone over there interprets this as a thumping rejection of Marxism and a ringing endorsement of Bojo.

The SF surge was sensational, but the sensation should be put in perspective and should not be allowed to drive the consequences. The overwhelming majority reject SF/'Ra.
 

Leper

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The problem is SF are still so tainted, permeated, and by all accounts controlled by a subversive element heavily and actively involved in criminal activity that many would see engaging with them as a significant backward step for a modern society to take.
. . . . . all the more reason the electorate decided to protest, for once!
 

josh8267

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I've asked you multiple times who you voted for. Given the reality of who is on the ballot paper who do you choose?
If you are not going to answer that but rather persist with the half-smart comments dressed up as cynical wisdom then you're just wasting everyone's time posting here.
You don't support FF or FG or Labour or SF or the other far left parties. Who did you vote for?
I had planned to vote for the green party,along with Independent as the best option in my neck of the woods,
Up to now I have voter for the following parties FG/FF/Lab will not be voting for them ever again until the put a system in place to look after people who pay Pay Related Social Insurance through payroll ,
I and many like me recived a fair % when I found my self out of work for around seven or eight months back around 1984/5,
FF/FG/LAB took it away and squandered it on buying votes since then,
Just for the record I did not vote on Saturday , a good friend was home from Germany asked me if I was interested in travelling to Germany with them on Friday so I missed the vote, The greens I was going to vote for got knocked out early the Independent got elected on first count with a few thousand to spare,
both FF/FG TDs that I used to vote for got knocked out,
At the door I asked both FF/FG canvassers to make sure to send the message back to the TDs they would not be getting my vote until the started to restore PRSI like it was when I needed it,
Both FF/FG canvassors kind of refused to do so saying they were getting a very good reception at the doors for( there)parties , long may it continue,
 
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Sophrosyne

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Absolutely! This is what I have argued and is articulated much better by Stephen Collins in today's IT.
It is also pointed out that the combined republican/socialist vote here is no more than 30%. The combined FF/FG vote is 43%. In the UK Labour got 32% on their Marxist platform and the Tories got 43%. Everyone over there interprets this as a thumping rejection of Marxism and a ringing endorsement of Bojo.

The SF surge was sensational, but the sensation should be put in perspective and should not be allowed to drive the consequences. The overwhelming majority reject SF/'Ra.
I agree Duke.

This article by Michael Marsh, Emeritus Professor, TCD examines the left swing and what is “the left”. For instance does “left” include the Green Party?

“This now near equality of left and right in national terms is far from being the case across the country.”, he observes.
 

Duke of Marmalade

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This article by Michael Marsh, Emeritus Professor, TCD examines the left swing and what is “the left”. For instance does “left” include the Green Party?
Interesting. Well I don't think Dublin Bay South is "left" (ask the Boss) and I don't think Dun Laoghaire is left (ask the Duke). So it is certainly problematic to count the Greens as left. (the Duke did not vote Green, I hasten to clarify). In fact is being Green not the ultimate in Bourgeois indulgence?
 
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Sophrosyne

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In fact is being Green not the ultimate in Bourgeois indulgence?
Yes indeed!

So in the case of the share of 1st preference votes:

FF 22.20%
FG 20.90%
GP 07.10%
Total 50.20%.

Of the 19 independents, at least 9 or 10 are part of the FF/FG/PD gene pool.

This site shows the national and individual constituency vote and the progress of candidates through the various counts and how the transfers went.
 
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blueband

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the way I see it panning out is like this...the two center parties will go into coalition togeather, they will drag in the "new age hippies" with them to make up the numbers. this can only be a good thing for sf as it will make them the largest opposition party...all they have to do is sit back and watch the wheels come off the wagon!
 
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