WHats the strategy in calling an election for BJ?

Ceist Beag said:
You would certainly have to admire the 21 tories who pretty much sacrificed their political careers to make their stand last night. That took some courage.
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It will be interesting to see whether they opt to become independents, or move to one of the other parties, or even form a new party. I'm not entirely sure they've sacrificed their political careers. It depends on the voting dynamics in the seat, and whether they were elected purely on being the conservative candidate, or if they were elected in their individual right.
 
Seagull said:
It will be interesting to see whether they opt to become independents, or move to one of the other parties, or even form a new party. I'm not entirely sure they've sacrificed their political careers. It depends on the voting dynamics in the seat, and whether they were elected purely on being the conservative candidate, or if they were elected in their individual right.
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I'm no expert on UK politics but I very much get the impression there is no tradition of independent MPs there the way we tend to favour them here. It seems to be very much party based politics.
 
Ceist Beag said:
I'm no expert on UK politics but I very much get the impression there is no tradition of independent MPs there the way we tend to favour them here. It seems to be very much party based politics.
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Yes multi-seat constituencies mean that people vote as much for this particular candidate of party X so there is a personal vote.
In the UK there are a lot of 'safe' constituencies, that almost always vote Conservative or Labour.

This quote sums it up...
"I voted against Gerald Nabarro in my first general election, but my defiance made no difference. If you had put a Conservative rosette on a mustachioed hamster, it would have been elected. "
- Jeremy Paxman
 
Interesting position that may be a Boris plan. He knows the numbers are against him so after parliament pass the bill forcing him to ask for an extension he gets them to vote an election and he has the British EU representative veto the request
 
Another interesting aspect of all this is the arrogance of the UK Parliament that they think they can just pass a law for an extension and ignore the fact that the EU have to grant one and they have been messing them around for three years.....I would say the patience of the Germans and the French and most of Europe is fading fast even if Ireland would love to keep kicking it down the road....
 
cremeegg said:
While I agree with most of the rest of your post, especially that TMs redlines were a disaster. Boris if he can get an election (thanks to the fixed term parliament act, that may not be easy) is in an excellent position. He has a clear message for the electorate, which is consistent with his actions over recent months, and he can promise, however unrealistically to get Brexit done. If he can neutralise Fragae, I think he would sweep an election.
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Let me propose a possible alternative outcome.....
1) Johnson loses control of Parliament and legislation is passed forcing him request an extension
2) Because he can neither get a 2/3 majority nor control Parliament, he is unable to unilaterally call an election by either route available and is therefore held in place unable to do anything until after the extension is guaranteed and can't be rescinded
3) At that point a VoNC happens and either he loses the second vote 14 days later or he agrees to an election under the FTPA
4) Boris now goes into the election without having delivered a Brexit and therefore the Brexit Party contest seats. So he has a choice of fighting them or going into a pact with them. Either way he has to fight the election on a "no deal" manifesto but will have to beat independent conservatives and LibDems in England, the SNP in Scotland and Plaid in Wales (who knows what happens in NI but I saw a report that 3 DUP are now under threat)

I don't think I would consider this "an excellent position" or strategy. I also don't think that a "no deal" manifesto would sweep anything. More likely he would lose more seats in my opinion. His message (if you even just look at the last two days) is anything but clear.

Plus it is seeming possible that his Government will be facing serious legal problems - while the legal challenge to Poroguation probably has little chance of success, the discovery process seems to be kicking up evidence that his "advice" to the Queen was made under false pretences. I'd watch this one as it could lead to real problems
 
john luc said:
Interesting position that may be a Boris plan. He knows the numbers are against him so after parliament pass the bill forcing him to ask for an extension he gets them to vote an election and he has the British EU representative veto the request
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I believe they have addressed this. Statements today make it clear that they won't vote for an election until after an extension is implemented
 
Sunny said:
Another interesting aspect of all this is the arrogance of the UK Parliament that they think they can just pass a law for an extension and ignore the fact that the EU have to grant one and they have been messing them around for three years.....I would say the patience of the Germans and the French and most of Europe is fading fast even if Ireland would love to keep kicking it down the road....
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They are fully aware of it. For a start it is clear they have been talking to the EU in the background. But an extension in these circumstances where it is clear the Parliament are driving it and will lead to an election will be agreed to
 
cremeegg said:
While I agree with most of the rest of your post, especially that TMs redlines were a disaster. Boris if he can get an election (thanks to the fixed term parliament act, that may not be easy) is in an excellent position. He has a clear message for the electorate, which is consistent with his actions over recent months, and he can promise, however unrealistically to get Brexit done. If he can neutralise Fragae, I think he would sweep an election.
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i think boris johnson has really crashed now, he was too clever by half in paroguing for 4 weeks he has now been outsmarted by parliament and is looking more and more ridiculous as each day of this continues. This is the first time that boris johnson has really been tested and when an election does happen boris johnson will be a busted flush. When he cant get brexit delivered on 31 october he will be targetted by the brexit party ,nigel farage is much smarter than johnson, indeed farage could swallow up the tories and become leader himself thats how damaged johnson is.
The decision to expel the tory rebels was catastrophic, they wont recover from this.
 
galway_blow_in said:
Forgive my dumb nature but is the vote result tonight a plus for Ireland?

I realise yesterday's vote was
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Well... Today's vote stopped a quick election which was Johnson's plan B... Have an election and a new government could withdraw any extension request

So on balance... Probably yes. I don't see any Johnson strategy that is good for the island. So as a rule of thumb any defeat is probably in our interest
 
Yeah I give up at this stage. They have me completely stumped. Deal/No deal, extension/no extension, election/no elections. MP's sacked. MP walking across the aisle in the middle of a speech. Brother resigning. If this was some banana State, I would say something but this is the UK. Thought the US was in bad place but the UK is actually destroying itself...
 
Boris Johnson has achieved one of his promises. He said he'd unite the country. I think pretty much everyone is now agreed he's an arrogant, power-hungy, self-centred tosspot.
 
It's interesting to watch the decline of what could have been regarded as a well-functioning democracy and parliament! A bit like watching someone you know commit an act of deliberate self harm.
 
Can someone explain one thing to me in regards to the general election. Why are people so confident in an increased majority win for Boris if he can persuade Farage to abstain from competing? Is the expectation that a large number of people (a large majority) will vote for Brexit again? Everyone knows this election will be essentially another referendum on Brexit and everyone also knows that if Boris wins he will pull the UK out deal or no deal. As a no deal looks almost certain if Boris is in charge then essentially a vote for the Conservatives is a vote to leave without a deal.
All the recent talk about the last referendum was that the people didn't really understand what they were voting for but if the UK do put him in with a large majority then they cannot complain a second time that they didn't really know what they were voting for!
 
Ah, come on Ceist Beag………….you're trying to look at this rationally...………….when logic has left the room many moons ago!
 
Listening to Winds of Change radio podcast on BBC Radio, De Gaulle had the right idea when he vetoed UK entry.
 
Ceist Beag said:
Why are people so confident in an increased majority win for Boris if he can persuade Farage to abstain from competing? Is the expectation that a large number of people (a large majority) will vote for Brexit again? Everyone knows this election will be essentially another referendum on Brexit
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So if Boris can sideline the Brexit Party and win the Brexit vote he can draw on approximately 50% of the electorate, which would guarantee a majority. Well that is the theory anyway. He will seek to portray all other parties as remainers either in principle or by default and as there will be at least 2, and generally more, such parties in any constituency he will seek to split the vote (Labour, Lib Dems, Greens, Change UK, Welsh Nationalists , etc). Also, he will rely on Corbyn's unpopularity in traditional northern working class areas.

But all this depends on the Tories being able to define the election as a Brexit Referendum in all but name. Labour will attempt to frame it otherwise, eg, austerity, Boris Johnson's character, etc. Also, if they can force him to ask for a Brexit extension and have an election after that they will hope to bring the Brexit Party back into play and split the Brexit vote.

Ceist Beag said:
everyone also knows that if Boris wins he will pull the UK out deal or no deal. As a no deal looks almost certain if Boris is in charge then essentially a vote for the Conservatives is a vote to leave without a deal.
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He is certainly giving this impression but how much of it is an election ploy is open to question. The more he can position himself as likely to embrace no deal the more he sidelines the Brexit Party and sucks up those votes. My guess is that if he should succeed in getting an overall majority he will most likely negotiate a deal - one not greatly different from the current one (but with some face saving changes) - perhaps a version of the original NI only backstop. If he is not dependent on the DUP he would be able to get that through.
 
Makes sense Early Riser - so the real dilemna for anyone wishing to remain in the EU is who to vote for in a way to make that vote count!

As I see it you have those very much in favour of Brexit who won't have changed their stance since the referendum.
You have those very much against Brexit who won't have changed their stance since the referendum.
But by all accounts there is a large swathe who originally voted for Brexit and are now very much questioning the wisdom of that and are leaning more towards remain rather than leave with no deal (or even risk leaving with no deal).
Are there many on the original remain side who are now looking to leave? It's hard to imagine this number has increased by anything like the same margin.

So based on all that you would come to the conclusion that were this a referendum, not an election, Brexit would be defeated. But as you say, if it is an election then the Brexit vote could be consolidated into a vote for the Tories but a Remain vote could be very much split and therefore diluted.
 
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