WHats the strategy in calling an election for BJ?

Early Riser

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Why are people so confident in an increased majority win for Boris if he can persuade Farage to abstain from competing? Is the expectation that a large number of people (a large majority) will vote for Brexit again? Everyone knows this election will be essentially another referendum on Brexit
So if Boris can sideline the Brexit Party and win the Brexit vote he can draw on approximately 50% of the electorate, which would guarantee a majority. Well that is the theory anyway. He will seek to portray all other parties as remainers either in principle or by default and as there will be at least 2, and generally more, such parties in any constituency he will seek to split the vote (Labour, Lib Dems, Greens, Change UK, Welsh Nationalists , etc). Also, he will rely on Corbyn's unpopularity in traditional northern working class areas.

But all this depends on the Tories being able to define the election as a Brexit Referendum in all but name. Labour will attempt to frame it otherwise, eg, austerity, Boris Johnson's character, etc. Also, if they can force him to ask for a Brexit extension and have an election after that they will hope to bring the Brexit Party back into play and split the Brexit vote.

everyone also knows that if Boris wins he will pull the UK out deal or no deal. As a no deal looks almost certain if Boris is in charge then essentially a vote for the Conservatives is a vote to leave without a deal.
He is certainly giving this impression but how much of it is an election ploy is open to question. The more he can position himself as likely to embrace no deal the more he sidelines the Brexit Party and sucks up those votes. My guess is that if he should succeed in getting an overall majority he will most likely negotiate a deal - one not greatly different from the current one (but with some face saving changes) - perhaps a version of the original NI only backstop. If he is not dependent on the DUP he would be able to get that through.
 

Ceist Beag

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Makes sense Early Riser - so the real dilemna for anyone wishing to remain in the EU is who to vote for in a way to make that vote count!

As I see it you have those very much in favour of Brexit who won't have changed their stance since the referendum.
You have those very much against Brexit who won't have changed their stance since the referendum.
But by all accounts there is a large swathe who originally voted for Brexit and are now very much questioning the wisdom of that and are leaning more towards remain rather than leave with no deal (or even risk leaving with no deal).
Are there many on the original remain side who are now looking to leave? It's hard to imagine this number has increased by anything like the same margin.

So based on all that you would come to the conclusion that were this a referendum, not an election, Brexit would be defeated. But as you say, if it is an election then the Brexit vote could be consolidated into a vote for the Tories but a Remain vote could be very much split and therefore diluted.
 

Sunny

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Problem for everyone is that I don't see how the election will solve anything. The Country is too divided. By the time, they will reach a consensus, there will be little spaceships carrying out x-ray checks of trucks crossing the border from the sky so we won't need a backstop.....

It's getting ridiculous at this stage. Ireland can't plan a budget. The EU doesn't want the UK part of any budget discussions. Businesses across Europe are cutting back. Countries are heading into recession again. Interest Rates are going negative with no sign of inflation. Not all the fault of Brexit but it still one big uncertainty that is really beginning to bite. It is time to bring this circus to a close.
 

Early Riser

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Are there many on the original remain side who are now looking to leave? It's hard to imagine this number has increased by anything like the same margin.
I don't know whether many remainers may have changed their minds. But there is probably quite a swathe of people who are fed up with the whole thing and just want it finished. Johnson is pitching to them too with the fixed deadline and no extension.
 

Drakon

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Who ever is the PM/Government, Brexit has to happen, sooner or later.
There was a democratic referendum. The people voted to Leave. The fact that most MPs are Remainers is just an example of the disconnect between the electorate and the political establishment.

There will be protesting, serious protesting, if Brexit isn’t implemented. 1980ies miners style protesting, pitched battles between the people and the police.
Not socialites wandering around in yellow vests or with black umbrellas.
I’ve seen footage of some of the anti-Brexit “protesters” outside Westminster. Laughable. It’s more like fancy dress than protest. Every one of them heading to the boozer before last call for a gin and ton-tons.

Too much media coverage is about how Londoners feel about Brexit. But they’re living in a group think bubble. London is booming doesn’t mean that England is booming.
Look at dumps like Luton or Gloucester. The dregs of society felt (rightly or wrongly) left behind by the EU. So they voted to Leave. They won the argument. And if the establishment, be it Tory or Labour or Whig, don’t practice democracy, I expect there will be unrest on a national scale.
And when the reporters ask some chav from Sunderland why he’s stealing that Burberry cap, don’t be surprised is he says, “Brexit, innit!”
 

elacsaplau

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The fact that most MPs are Remainers is just an example of the disconnect between the electorate and the political establishment.
Most lung cancer patients are smokers. This could mean that there is a disconnect between patients and their doctors or it could mean that the medics are just better informed! Personally, I think medics are more in the know...….but, hey, what do I know?!
 

WolfeTone

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I think Brexit has peaked.
There are two possible outcomes. That somehow Boris succeeds in crashing the UK out on 31Oct, or Brexit can is kicked down the road, facilitating an election.

If it is kicked down the road and an election called I expect the Remainers, or those running under the guise of "brexit, but not without a deal" will triumph over the Brexiteers.
An election will give everyone a focus in an effective re-run of the referendum. The difference being, this time Remainers might actually put some impetus into their campaigning.
An election will offer opportunity to persuade those, on either side of the debate, to change minds by actually providing some specifics.
This is where the Brexiteers will fall down. Their whole campaign is underpinned by emotive nationalism (which im not discounting) and very little on specifics. A second campaign propagating the same mantra without providing specifics will soon begin to look shallow - especially if the anti-Brexit side can provide some real specifics on jobs and immigration, on specifics about rules and regulations, and tackle the barmy stuff about fishing waters and trading with the rest of the world (which UK already does). Specifics about how trade deals are a negotiation between two or more parties where all sides give up something to another side in order to obtain other stuff from the other parties. Trade deals are not a one-sided arrangement with one party demanding the terms (except where military might is concerned).

It wont be enough to extinguish the Brexit movement, but it will be enough to thwart it this time around.
It may lead to the establishment of a parliament for England, heralding the slow demise of the UK.
 
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Sophrosyne

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I agree in part.

But I also think that a lot of people - not just in the UK - are swayed by emotive slogans rather than reasoned debate or fact-checking.

Boris's simple "lets get it done" appeals although it is nonsense.

The fact that many of those who rely on the EU for their business are still committed to leave is a case in point.

It reminds me of an article written in 1941 by the despicable Joseph Goebbels, himself guilty of the same "Big Lie" propaganda:

"The essential English leadership secret does not depend on particular intelligence. Rather, it depends on a remarkably stupid thick-headedness. The English follow the principle that when one lies, one should lie big, and stick to it. They keep up their lies, even at the risk of looking ridiculous"
 
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Drakon

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Most lung cancer patients are smokers. This could mean that there is a disconnect between patients and their doctors or it could mean that the medics are just better informed! Personally, I think medics are more in the know...….but, hey, what do I know?!
That’s like something Boris would say if he was a remainer.
 

WolfeTone

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But I also think that a lot of people - not just in the UK - are swayed by emotive slogans rather than reasoned debate or fact-checking.
Absolutely. But since the referendum it has become obvious to a lot of British people that they were sold short on specifics, other than the big fat red bus NHS lie.

Simple questions like - "Do you know British fishing industry is reliant on 40% immigrant fishers?"
Or, "under WTO rules, preference is afforded to developing nations for fishing rights. The only reason UK waters can be exploited to the extent that they are is because they are part of a single European market. If UK is out of SM then fishing rights will diminish greatly under WTO"

Or, "Home Secretary Priti Patel has stated that only skilled workers will be able to come to UK. Does this mean that all the low skilled work, cleaning, fast-food, deli counters, will be left for the British?"

Or, "if the PM has stated categorically, that under no circumstances will there be border checks on the island of Ireland, why then have border checks on the island of Britain?
Is NI somehow separate, different, from rest of UK?"

There are dozens more. Brexiteers like Farage and Johnson just need to be exposed to some truths. The pomp of "take back control" and "leave means leave" will start to ring hollow and enough for the election to favour remainers.
 

johnwilliams

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i agree with seagull
a/b/c
anyone
but
corbyn
"The easiest way to ensure Boris won't win an election is for Corbyn to resign. Put anyone in his place, and labour will hoover up significant numbers of traditional conservative voters."
 

EmmDee

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Can someone explain one thing to me in regards to the general election. Why are people so confident in an increased majority win for Boris if he can persuade Farage to abstain from competing? Is the expectation that a large number of people (a large majority) will vote for Brexit again? Everyone knows this election will be essentially another referendum on Brexit and everyone also knows that if Boris wins he will pull the UK out deal or no deal. As a no deal looks almost certain if Boris is in charge then essentially a vote for the Conservatives is a vote to leave without a deal.
All the recent talk about the last referendum was that the people didn't really understand what they were voting for but if the UK do put him in with a large majority then they cannot complain a second time that they didn't really know what they were voting for!
That's not really what is being said. The problem is if the Brexit Party Ltd run candidates against the Tories in marginal or even safe seats, they will split the vote and potentially hand a "safe leave" seat to the LibDems or such.... Same as happened in the recent bye election in Wales

But on the flip side, there is a lot of seats where, if the other parties coordinate, they could win from the Tories.

I suspect the Brexit Party Ltd will target labour leave seats rather than Tories to a large extent.

It's funny... We are seeing UK politics starting to get into tactical vote management which we would be quite used to here

But I would say... If you see a spread bet price offering a large Tory majority I would jump all over it and bet against. It's doubtful he'd get anywhere close to a large majority... Or any majority
 

EmmDee

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Who ever is the PM/Government, Brexit has to happen, sooner or later.
There was a democratic referendum. The people voted to Leave. The fact that most MPs are Remainers is just an example of the disconnect between the electorate and the political establishment.

There will be protesting, serious protesting, if Brexit isn’t implemented. 1980ies miners style protesting, pitched battles between the people and the police.
Not socialites wandering around in yellow vests or with black umbrellas.
I’ve seen footage of some of the anti-Brexit “protesters” outside Westminster. Laughable. It’s more like fancy dress than protest. Every one of them heading to the boozer before last call for a gin and ton-tons.

Too much media coverage is about how Londoners feel about Brexit. But they’re living in a group think bubble. London is booming doesn’t mean that England is booming.
Look at dumps like Luton or Gloucester. The dregs of society felt (rightly or wrongly) left behind by the EU. So they voted to Leave. They won the argument. And if the establishment, be it Tory or Labour or Whig, don’t practice democracy, I expect there will be unrest on a national scale.
And when the reporters ask some chav from Sunderland why he’s stealing that Burberry cap, don’t be surprised is he says, “Brexit, innit!”
Pretty much all of this is logical fallacies. For a start the parliament actually pretty closely matches the population e.g. just under 20% of both favour a no deal Brexit. And that's the problem... Trying to rewrite history by claiming the majority voted for crashing out is demonstrably false.

People were asked to vote for ""this thing or something else" without defining the "something else". And there started the mess.

It is likely that in a vote for stay or crash out, remaining would command a large majority. Which is why Johnson/Cummings don't want to have a validation referendum. But they think they can win an election because labour is a mess... Hence all the current drama
 

joe sod

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I bet Leo varadker must be the most relieved man after the last week, the crashing of boris johnson has given him a get out of jail card.
If boris johnson again loses the vote on monday for an election in october he is history. The longer this goes on the more ridiculous he looks, jeremy corbyn is actually playing him beautifully now. The longer he can keep johnson there the worse it is for johnson and the tories. The paroguing of parliament is now working against johnson. Boris Johnson is now starring in his own greek tragedy
 

Early Riser

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But on the flip side, there is a lot of seats where, if the other parties coordinate, they could win from the Tories.
In theory this could be a Remain/Second Referendum path to victory. But it is hard to see it coming off in practice in the context of a general election (as opposed to a by-election). Labour is split on Europe and the only thing uniting them is the prospect of winning and getting in government. They will go after the other parties as well, eg, the Liberals and their history in the coalition.

For this to work it really depends on voters coordinating tactically and this is difficult without PR.
 

cremeegg

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My turn for a few sweeping generalisations about the English.

English people are reasonable, and like to see themselves as reasonable.

Most English people who voted leave or remain, probably decided on the balance of probabilities rather because they were committed on either side.

Most English people pay little attention to what is happening in politics.

Boris wants to leave, Parliament is fooling about to stop him. That is what people are seeing.

Most English people think, we decided on Brexit so lets get on with it, I think that applies to lots of those who voted remain as well as nearly all those who voted leave. No one will change their minds on the merits of the leave/remain question.

The two worst things that have happened to Boris so far are his brother leaving cabinet and the photo of Rees-Mogg lolling on the seats in Parliament. But I don't see those derailing him.

If Boris can hold himself in check, not do anything stupid, he will sweep an election. In Oct or Nov.
 

joe sod

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Most English people think, we decided on Brexit so lets get on with it, I think that applies to lots of those who voted remain as well as nearly all those who voted leave. No one will change their minds on the merits of the leave/remain question.

The two worst things that have happened to Boris so far are his brother leaving cabinet and the photo of Rees-Mogg lolling on the seats in Parliament. But I don't see those derailing him.
yes most english people did, but parliament should have allowed theresa may get her deal through, she did all the graft on the withdrawal agreement only to have it thrown in her face by the brexiteers led by johnson and also to a lesser extent by varadker.
Now parliament has got its revenge on johnson's unbelievable arrogance and hubris. Yes there will be a brexit but it will not be boris johnson,s brexit, it could still be a tweek on theresa mays brexit, she could have the last laugh yet after all these shenanigans.

If Boris can hold himself in check, not do anything stupid, he will sweep an election. In Oct or Nov.
he is the worst prime minister to ever grace the house of commons, a buffoon, he thought he could act like trump but he cant and has been found out immediately after just one week in the commons
 

cremeegg

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yes most english people did, but parliament should have allowed theresa may get her deal through, she did all the graft on the withdrawal agreement only to have it thrown in her face by the brexiteers
All most people see is that it was thrown in her face by Parliament, and in fact it wasn't just Brexiteers who voted against the WA.



he is the worst prime minister to ever grace the house of commons, a buffoon, he thought he could act like trump but he cant and has been found out immediately after just one week in the commons
Maybe he can't get away with it in Parliament, but it remains to be seen if he can get away with in the country.
 
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