WHats the strategy in calling an election for BJ?

[Sunny]

BBC reporter suggested that Boris has the following plan. He will send a letter to EU on October 19th requesting an extension. This will be the letter dictated by Parliament. He will then send a follow up letter saying if they do give an extension he will behave like the neighbours from hell. He won't appoint a commissioner and he will veto everything etc. Cumming plan or what?

Baldrick would be proud of that one...….

Beginning to think that they actually haven't thought past the 31st October either way. I can imagine the 1st of November after the above. 'Hi Angela, Borris here. Just wondering about the trade deal. Thought we could get it done over a cup of tea and crumpets this afternoon'. Sorry about all the mess you know. But I showed how cunning I was in the end....I am sure the recession won't last long'

 

[cremeegg]

Downing Street November 4th 2019 (The first Monday after Brexit).

Civil Servant 1: "Good morning Prime Minister, the EU trade delegation has arrived, may I show them in ?"

Boris: "yes, yes and be sure to introduce them on the way in."

Civil Servant 1: "Prime Minister may I present the chief EU negotiator Mr. Philip Hogan"

Big Phil: "Howya Boris, just a couple of things on the agenda for today, the border and ah! the Brexit bill, once we have those cleared up we can get onto the tarrifs and regulatory issues.

 

[Sunny]

Ha ha. It is the ultimate revenge by the EU. You messed us around for three years. Now you can spend the few years dealing with Phil...….

 

[EmmDee]

BBC reporter suggested that Boris has the following plan. He will send a letter to EU on October 19th requesting an extension. This will be the letter dictated by Parliament. He will then send a follow up letter saying if they do give an extension he will behave like the neighbours from hell. He won't appoint a commissioner and he will veto everything etc. Cumming plan or what?

Probably a Cumming plan but like all the others (so far) it's utter nonsense. From a legal point of view, doing the above is tantamount to not signing the letter in the first place and they would be open to an injunction and potential contempt proceedings.

There is a great clip of a senior barrister being asked on TV whether is a legal way of BJ not sending the letter and the response was "No - unless he put himself into a self induced coma of course"

 

[Sunny]

Probably a Cumming plan but like all the others (so far) it's utter nonsense. From a legal point of view, doing the above is tantamount to not signing the letter in the first place and they would be open to an injunction and potential contempt proceedings.

There is a great clip of a senior barrister being asked on TV whether is a legal way of BJ not sending the letter and the response was "No - unless he put himself into a self induced coma of course"

The second letter is nonsense of course. But there is probably enough wiggle room there. The EU will receive the request and ask why the UK need it. Borris just has to say because Parliament is making him ask for it. That's not against the law and it puts the EU in a pickle. They can refuse the extension and Borris get's what he wants. They can grant the extension and forget about passing anything important where the UK has a Veto for yet another three months while Borris and Nigel go off and win an election.....And back to where we are now...….

This is going to end with a NI only backstop...The DUP are worthless to Borris now. Considering how little the rest of the UK care about NI, I would imagine that even Borris could gather enough cross party support. And meanwhile Therese May will be banging her head against a wall...….

 

[EmmDee]

The second letter is nonsense of course. But there is probably enough wiggle room there. The EU will receive the request and ask why the UK need it. Borris just has to say because Parliament is making him ask for it. That's not against the law and it puts the EU in a pickle. They can refuse the extension and Borris get's what he wants. They can grant the extension and forget about passing anything important where the UK has a Veto for yet another three months while Borris and Nigel go off and win an election.....And back to where we are now...….

This is going to end with a NI only backstop...The DUP are worthless to Borris now. Considering how little the rest of the UK care about NI, I would imagine that even Borris could gather enough cross party support. And meanwhile Therese May will be banging her head against a wall...….

Refusing to nominate a commissioner doesn't block the commission but probably leaves UK open to sanction (if that matters). Also - there isn't a blanket veto so it doesn't halt the workings of the EU. So if they are convinced there will be an election called they would grant it - nothing to lose (other than the will to live!!!)

But even if he did what you say, the legislation passed states that he has to seek an extension through a request letter. If he were to act in a way that underlined the seeking of an extension, it would leave him open to an injunction - as well as a criminal charge under standards in public office. There is also significant personal liability in theory because if he were to cause harm by breaking the law, he would be personally open to civil liability cases.

I would think (if they want to get utterly messy with it) he could resign, try to force Corbyn as an interim PM, have Corbyn sign the extension and then campaign on the fact that Corbyn did it and he resigned to avoid doing it. Which is why it would make sense from a Labour party point of view, to have a "neutral" interim PM (e.g. Ken Clarke) who could sign the letter without political consequences. Otherwise, even if he managed to get an election called, he'd have to sign the letter as he would be acting PM

 

[Sunny]

Refusing to nominate a commissioner doesn't block the commission but probably leaves UK open to sanction (if that matters). Also - there isn't a blanket veto so it doesn't halt the workings of the EU. So if they are convinced there will be an election called they would grant it - nothing to lose (other than the will to live!!!)

But even if he did what you say, the legislation passed states that he has to seek an extension through a request letter. If he were to act in a way that underlined the seeking of an extension, it would leave him open to an injunction - as well as a criminal charge under standards in public office. There is also significant personal liability in theory because if he were to cause harm by breaking the law, he would be personally open to civil liability cases.

I would think (if they want to get utterly messy with it) he could resign, try to force Corbyn as an interim PM, have Corbyn sign the extension and then campaign on the fact that Corbyn did it and he resigned to avoid doing it. Which is why it would make sense from a Labour party point of view, to have a "neutral" interim PM (e.g. Ken Clarke) who could sign the letter without political consequences. Otherwise, even if he managed to get an election called, he'd have to sign the letter as he would be acting PM

There is actually a blanket veto for lots of EU votes. The UK could block all votes on Foreign Affairs, Taxation, Justice and even the EU budget....

 

[EmmDee]

There is actually a blanket veto for lots of EU votes. The UK could block all votes on Foreign Affairs, Taxation, Justice and even the EU budget....

EU includes a condition that during the extension the UK abstains from voting in areas subject to a veto - this was the "gentleman's agreement" previously but given Cummings is involved they might make it a formal condition

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

Refusing to nominate a commissioner doesn't block the commission but probably leaves UK open to sanction (if that matters). Also - there isn't a blanket veto so it doesn't halt the workings of the EU. So if they are convinced there will be an election called they would grant it - nothing to lose (other than the will to live!!!)

But even if he did what you say, the legislation passed states that he has to seek an extension through a request letter. If he were to act in a way that underlined the seeking of an extension, it would leave him open to an injunction - as well as a criminal charge under standards in public office. There is also significant personal liability in theory because if he were to cause harm by breaking the law, he would be personally open to civil liability cases.

I would think (if they want to get utterly messy with it) he could resign, try to force Corbyn as an interim PM, have Corbyn sign the extension and then campaign on the fact that Corbyn did it and he resigned to avoid doing it. Which is why it would make sense from a Labour party point of view, to have a "neutral" interim PM (e.g. Ken Clarke) who could sign the letter without political consequences. Otherwise, even if he managed to get an election called, he'd have to sign the letter as he would be acting PM

Sajid Javid on the Andrew Marr show gave a trinity of straight answers:
Boris will not break the law
Boris will not ask for an extension
Boris will not resign
Now that seems to be a mystery to rival the Blessed one.
Possible solutions include the self induced coma or his being fired by a vote of no confidence tabled by himself.

 

[Sunny]

EU includes a condition that during the extension the UK abstains from voting in areas subject to a veto - this was the "gentleman's agreement" previously but given Cummings is involved they might make it a formal condition

Isn't the point though. Send a letter saying he wants an extension. He has met the conditions of the legislation. He doesn't have to send a second letter. He just makes it clear to the EU during informal discussions that the 'Gentlemans Agreement' ends on the 31st October. The EU has no way to block the UK from using it when it is still part of the EU. And that is what Cummings is planning. He wants the EU to the job that the UK parliament has failed to do. Brexit by the 31st October. I am not saying it will work or that is what will happen but that legislation was flawed. It was based on the assumption that the EU would grant an extension while the UK messed around for another three months.

I see both the Irish and UK government are now laying down the groundwork for a NI only backstop. Foster is shouting about undemocratic and unconstitutional stuff again...So we have basically gone back in time 6 months

 

[Early Riser]

I see both the Irish and UK government are now laying down the groundwork for a NI only backstop.

Also some suggestion that the EU may consider adding something to the WA to the effect that if the UK decided in the future to re-apply for EU memebership it could do so under their current (ie, favourable) membership conditions. The thinking being that this might be enough to tempt enough opposition soft brexiters and remainers to vote for the deal to get it over the line (even without DUP support, given a NI only backstop). Maybe this is too far-fetched to work out in practice but it has some plausability.

 

[cremeegg]

So we have basically gone back in time 6 months

Hard to credit, but it is 9 months since Arlene made the phone call.

 

[cremeegg]

Downing Street November 4th 2019 (The first Monday after Brexit).

Civil Servant 1: "Good morning Prime Minister, the EU trade delegation has arrived, may I show them in ?"

Boris: "yes, yes and be sure to introduce them on the way in."

Civil Servant 1: "Prime Minister may I present the chief EU negotiator Mr. Philip Hogan"

Big Phil: "Howya Boris, just a couple of things on the agenda for today, the border and ah! the Brexit bill, once we have those cleared up we can get onto the tarrifs and regulatory issues.

Ha ha. It is the ultimate revenge by the EU. You messed us around for three years. Now you can spend the few years dealing with Phil...….

Why the Ha Ha. Did you think I was joking. https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2019/0909/1074903-phil-hogan-europe/

Remember you read it here first.

 

[EmmDee]

Isn't the point though. Send a letter saying he wants an extension. He has met the conditions of the legislation. He doesn't have to send a second letter. He just makes it clear to the EU during informal discussions that the 'Gentlemans Agreement' ends on the 31st October. The EU has no way to block the UK from using it when it is still part of the EU. And that is what Cummings is planning. He wants the EU to the job that the UK parliament has failed to do. Brexit by the 31st October. I am not saying it will work or that is what will happen but that legislation was flawed. It was based on the assumption that the EU would grant an extension while the UK messed around for another three months.

I see both the Irish and UK government are now laying down the groundwork for a NI only backstop. Foster is shouting about undemocratic and unconstitutional stuff again...So we have basically gone back in time 6 months

The legislation that was passed allows the PM some discretion if the EU offer a different date than 31st Jan but it doesn't give discretion on accepting an extension otherwise. It also proscribes the exact wording of the letter.

So if BJ sends the letter and the response is yes but with conditions, my reading is that he would have to accept as is or else bring it the parliament for approval to reject. And bear in mind the A50 notification and any extension is governed by a treaty.

So I don't think he could have side conversations. Firstly it would be a dreadful look to be seen to be undermining a treaty. But it would also probably be seen as illegal under UK law given the legislation passed... It's pretty tight wording.

 

[Sunny]

The legislation that was passed allows the PM some discretion if the EU offer a different date than 31st Jan but it doesn't give discretion on accepting an extension otherwise. It also proscribes the exact wording of the letter.

So if BJ sends the letter and the response is yes but with conditions, my reading is that he would have to accept as is or else bring it the parliament for approval to reject. And bear in mind the A50 notification and any extension is governed by a treaty.

So I don't think he could have side conversations. Firstly it would be a dreadful look to be seen to be undermining a treaty. But it would also probably be seen as illegal under UK law given the legislation passed... It's pretty tight wording.

It's not tight at all. It is written based on the big assumption that the eu will offer an extension. The eu want to offer an extension but Cummings cunning dastardly plan is to try and manoeuvre the EU so that it has no choice but to not offer the extension and bypass parliament. I am not saying it is a good plan but that seems to be their plan b. Their plan A as I said now looks like the NI only backstop which is just plain funny.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

They should close the bars at late night sittings of the HoC. The Scots, Welsh and Commies drunkenly singing their hymns, made Boris and his ministers look good.
In another thread I argued the Eoghan Harris/Dan O’Brien/Lucinda Creighton line that Leo was being reckless in his dogged sticking with the backstop. We look to have got that spectacularly wrong, I wonder will EH eat humble pie in the Sindo.

 

[Early Riser]

I wonder will EH eat humble pie in the Sindo

Of course he will - and the earth will start spinning backwards!

 

[peemac]

I see both the Irish and UK government are now laying down the groundwork for a NI only backstop. Foster is shouting about undemocratic and unconstitutional stuff again...So we have basically gone back in time 6 months

I said that the day Boris was elected.

It is the only solution on the table and now that BJ want an election he couldn't care less about Foster and NI.

The EU will agree it, BJ will agree it, Ireland will agree it. UK will be out with no "British" backstop and frankly no-one in Britain (except those from NI) gives a second thought about NI.

Sinn Fein will be happy as pigs in S and Foster will return to be a nobody in UK politics

Wins all round.

I'd be taking the 5/2 odds on an October 31st withdrawal. - damn, odds cut this morning to 13/8

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

I said that the day Boris was elected.

It is the only solution on the table and now that BJ want an election he couldn't care less about Foster and NI.

The EU will agree it, BJ will agree it, Ireland will agree it. UK will be out with no "British" backstop and frankly no-one in Britain (except those from NI) gives a second thought about NI.

Sinn Fein will be happy as pigs in S and Foster will return to be a nobody in UK politics

Wins all round.

I'd be taking the 5/2 odds on an October 31st withdrawal. - damn, odds cut this morning to 13/8

Still 5/2 on Betfair

 

[EmmDee]

It's not tight at all. It is written based on the big assumption that the eu will offer an extension. The eu want to offer an extension but Cummings cunning dastardly plan is to try and manoeuvre the EU so that it has no choice but to not offer the extension and bypass parliament. I am not saying it is a good plan but that seems to be their plan b. Their plan A as I said now looks like the NI only backstop which is just plain funny.

The legislation determines how exactly the extension request can be worded - any attempt to alter that (or other games) will run the risk of being illegal. Not that he won't try to come up with some scheme but it is now clear that Cummings is great with a big emotional debate or election but isn't quite so smart when it gets down to details - legal or procedural

The assumption is not that big given the EU were in contact with the team drafting the bill. So at the very least indicated an extension would likely be granted. Possibly assisted in the drafting though that team have plenty of drafting expertise and are very familiar with Parliamentary procedures.