WHats the strategy in calling an election for BJ?

cremeegg said:
Does that mean you win €208 for a €100 stake if the Tories win a majority ?? Surely a Tory majority was always the favoured outcome.

Or maybe I'm just not getting it.
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I receive 208, a win of 108. Tory majority was about even money with no majority until Labour blew it, also in the beginning the Brexit party were a big threat to a Tory majority
 
Watching Newsnight on BBC2. Permanent Secretary of the Department of Exiting the EU is giving his take on Brexit and future trade deal and relationships with EU.

He seems to be making a lot of sense to me. But who is listening to stuffy civil servants at this time of night?
 
cremeegg said:
Does that mean you win €208 for a €100 stake if the Tories win a majority ?? Surely a Tory majority was always the favoured outcome.

Or maybe I'm just not getting it.
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The way Betfair quote, it is total return for your initial stake. So in this case €100 would win €108 plus original €100 back.

In a bookies this would essentially be evens. If you want to convert Betfair prices to bookies odds, subtract 1 from the price. So in this case 1.08 / 1.

This is the most favoured outcome. The closest next outcome is "no overall majority" at about 3/1
 
Heard a piece on Newstalk this morning where the prospect of Johnson losing his seat was considered. Whilst deemed unlikely by the British pundit, the idea that it is even being considered - on Irish media - suggests that as a prospect it is being considered in British media too.
Its signals like this, along with reports of significant increase in voter registration and a return to traditional tribal bases that make me think that this will be a close call, in terms of whether or not the Tories secure a majority.
 
WolfeTone said:
Heard a piece on Newstalk this morning where the prospect of Johnson losing his seat was considered. Whilst deemed unlikely by the British pundit, the idea that it is even being considered - on Irish media - suggests that as a prospect it is being considered in British media too.
Its signals like this, along with reports of significant increase in voter registration and a return to traditional tribal bases that make me think that this will be a close call, in terms of whether or not the Tories secure a majority.
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His majority is not as big as a very safe seat - I think 5k or something. So they were certainly fighting it. I've seen a plan reported that if he loses his seat they have a friendly safe seat where the MP would be promoted to the Lords and they run a bye-election within weeks.

More interesting to watch is Raab, IDS and a couple of the other hardliners
 
WolfeTone said:
Heard a piece on Newstalk this morning where the prospect of Johnson losing his seat was considered. Whilst deemed unlikely by the British pundit, the idea that it is even being considered - on Irish media - suggests that as a prospect it is being considered in British media too.
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Yes, there is a 25 year old Iranian running for Labour who is a high profile “Not Tory” tactical voting suggestion, running in BoJo’s constituency.
It’s pure political theatre.
 
Read an interesting piece about a seat in Wales that Labour hope to win off the Tories, as part of their “Unseat A Tory” campaign, targeting traditional Conservative seats. The incumbent has left the Conservatives and is now running as an independent. The Tories have parachuted in an English candidate from Suffolk.

The Labour hopeful’s name is Owen, I can’t remember her first name though. Her political advisor has been a staunch Labour socialist since he was only seven years of age and she regards him with much reverence. He is twelve!
 
I'm surprised there aren't more conservative MPs changing to run as independents, especially in remain constituencies.
 
Squeaky bum time! Im somewhat resigned to idea of losing my stake as the betting market didn't move as I anticipated.
Sunderland I think is expected first, if Labour dont take it, I will head to bed early.
 
WolfeTone said:
Squeaky bum time! Im somewhat resigned to idea of losing my stake as the betting market didn't move as I anticipated.
Sunderland I think is expected first, if Labour dont take it, I will head to bed early.
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Exit poll due out but I think could be misleading... The global % won't reflect local variances.

The early returns from the north will probably go with the Tory's. But I've been hearing of a lot of problems for them down south.

If you wanted a really ballsy move... Letting the odds react to first few announcements and then betting against it... But wouldn't do it with my pension pot or rent money!!!
 
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