If Corbyn wasn't the leader the Tories would probably lose the election. No Corbyn = No Brexit.You seem to have made a giant step from Boris, Farage , 10yrs of Tory governance following an economic crash and programs of austerity and 17.4m UK voters in declaring Corbyn the reason for Brexit!
WHats the strategy in calling an election for BJ?
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If Cameron wasn't leader of Tories there probably wouldn't have been a referendum in the first place.
If there hadnt been an economic crash under the Brown/Blair regime then the rise of UKIP probably would have dwindled away.
If US and its Western allies hadn't spent the last 16yrs bombing the crap out of African and Middle East countries there probably wouldn't be the refugee crisis feeding into irrational xenophobia and the rise of Farage.
If my sister had a penis she probably be my brother.
No Cameron/neo-liberal economics/neo-con war mongering/transgender identity = No Brexit.
Sorry, Wolfie, you are going to have to wait a tad longer for your socialist paradise.
While I believe and support alot of what Corbyn stands for, I do admit that in his role as leader he failed to galvanise and exploit the wave of optimism that greeted his appointment.
However, from what im reading today Corbyn has actually delivered, if not a knockout punch, a bloody eye at least - too little, too late?
In terms of no border in Ireland, Bojo has delivered nothing that TM didn't already deliver. To suggest otherwise is pure Bojo speak.
As for your bet, you may be onto a winner. But my advice would be to cash in. I think it will be squeaky bum stuff.
My bet is for DUP to lose seats. They have been led up a merry path by Bojo.
Corbyn has played a blinder today. Imagine, it is the socialist marxist Corbyn that is calling out BJ's WA as weakening the Union.
The DUPs only friend is Corbyn!
Indeed. And one week before the vote, here they come again. This is far from over.
Duke of Marmalade
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To be absolutely correct neither have delivered anything. Bojo came close and is now on the verge of actually delivering.
Certainly not my understanding of the two agreements.
Both agreements ensure that a hard border on the island of Ireland will be avoided.
The difference between TM and BJ's deal is that despite all his promises, BJ is prepared to partition NI from Britain, whereas TM wasn't prepared to cut them loose.
The DUP chose to stand behind BJ.
Yes. BJ was prepared to draw a line down the Irish Sea to avoid a hard border between North and South. TM wasn't. Big difference I thought.
Being on the verge in political circles can be highly precarious. Forget my advice to cash in on a Conservative majority, instead I have put my money where my mouth is and lay the Conservative majority at 1.41
Certainly is, in DUP circles anyway. They now have a border between NI and Britain - their (second) worst nightmare.
Under TM deal, the whole of UK would be treated the same when dealing with EU.
The problem with the UK voting system is the 1 vote only and the rest doesn't matter,so the strategy of Boris calling the vote is to get a dictatorship single party rule with less than 4 out of the 10 who vote. If PR was in place than peoples voting choices would have to be respected. One of the worst abusive acts was a Thatcher led government who had no seats in Scotland introduced poll tax there first to see how it would work.
This really has been a lacklustre campaign. The Brits just dont love their politics the way we do.
Looking back at my thoughts from the start of the campaign
I think that the Lib Dems have spluttered and Tory losses there and to the SNP will be 20 or less.
The labour vote in the midlands and north might collapse. It seems Corbyn is a communist and not at all a patriot.
Some dissatisfied voters will vote against their incumbent MP even if Labour hasn't been in Govt for 9 years. We voted labour before and look where that got us. If that happens it could happen across a number of seats. And yet I don't think it will. Labour will by and large hold on. I think.
The Tories started and finished the 2017 election in or around 44%. Labour started it around 25% and got 41%. The story of that election was Labour doing well in the campaign.
The Tories started this campaign around 38% and have moved up to about 43%, almost exactly their result last time. Labour started around 25% and have edged up to around 33%. Thats well below their result last time.
Some at least of this Labour loss will translate into seat losses. BJ needs to win about 35 Labour seats in England to form a stable majority. Thats to cover 10 DUP seats and 20 SNP Lib Dem losses plus 5 for insurance.
The Tories lost a net 22 seats to Labour in England last time out. Despite all the talk about % not transferring to seats I think that means the Tories will will an overall majority.
Are the reduced Labour poll numbers concentrated in Labour held seats. Maybe they are people outside traditional Labour areas who like Labour in 2017 have little reason to change now. Although certainly Corbyn mania has ebbed.
People in traditional Labour areas have been falling away from Labour for a number of elections, maybe BJ is the man to complete the break.
Looking back at my thoughts from the start of the campaign
I think that the Lib Dems have spluttered and Tory losses there and to the SNP will be 20 or less.
The labour vote in the midlands and north might collapse. It seems Corbyn is a communist and not at all a patriot.
Some dissatisfied voters will vote against their incumbent MP even if Labour hasn't been in Govt for 9 years. We voted labour before and look where that got us. If that happens it could happen across a number of seats. And yet I don't think it will. Labour will by and large hold on. I think.
The Tories started and finished the 2017 election in or around 44%. Labour started it around 25% and got 41%. The story of that election was Labour doing well in the campaign.
The Tories started this campaign around 38% and have moved up to about 43%, almost exactly their result last time. Labour started around 25% and have edged up to around 33%. Thats well below their result last time.
Some at least of this Labour loss will translate into seat losses. BJ needs to win about 35 Labour seats in England to form a stable majority. Thats to cover 10 DUP seats and 20 SNP Lib Dem losses plus 5 for insurance.
The Tories lost a net 22 seats to Labour in England last time out. Despite all the talk about % not transferring to seats I think that means the Tories will will an overall majority.
Are the reduced Labour poll numbers concentrated in Labour held seats. Maybe they are people outside traditional Labour areas who like Labour in 2017 have little reason to change now. Although certainly Corbyn mania has ebbed.
People in traditional Labour areas have been falling away from Labour for a number of elections, maybe BJ is the man to complete the break.
Duke of Marmalade
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One thing for sure the Remain alliance have been completely outwitted by DC/Bojo. It is clear now that they should have put JC in as a caretaker PM, have a second referendum to sort out Brexit and then go for a GE. The Lib/Dems probably take most of the blame for refusing to countenance JC as even a caretaker PM and they are the big losers.
Wolfie when it comes to investment you should not let the heart rule the head.
Wolfie when it comes to investment you should not let the heart rule the head.
Wolfie when it comes to investment you should not let the heart rule the head.
Indeed. Notably im a not trumpeting a Labour triumph, but rather a Tory failure to secure a majority - particularly at confidence levels of 1.41. I think there is plenty of scope to drift back close to evens in the week ahead.
@cremeegg analysis above are useful here. The Tories are polling now around the same they got last time - short of a majority.
Labour are on 33%, the last pre-election polls they were 25% but got 41% in actual poll. That was some understatement!
Today, pre-election they are at 33%, is there any chance their vote is being understated once more?
It certainly makes sense the vastly overblown anti-Semitism row in the media.
God forbid the media had to tackle him on socialist policies such as protecting the NHS, increasing low incomes, taxing wealth, building social housing, how on earth would the electorate, in 2019, react to that?
Watched the Johnson/Corbyn debate.
A comfortable 3-0 win for Johnson, even if two of the goals were disputed penalty and an o.g.
Corbyn, despite his sincerity and efforts cannot convert. He resembles the efforts of Roberto Soldado (who? - Gareth Bales £26m replacement for Tottenham).
Scored six goals in first season, four from penalty spot!
But chances galore, just couldn't hit the net.
A comfortable 3-0 win for Johnson, even if two of the goals were disputed penalty and an o.g.
Corbyn, despite his sincerity and efforts cannot convert. He resembles the efforts of Roberto Soldado (who? - Gareth Bales £26m replacement for Tottenham).
Scored six goals in first season, four from penalty spot!
But chances galore, just couldn't hit the net.
I believe it was 70 Labour staffers made the submission. It came out yesterday
Yes, I have read the damning headlines. Cant find a link to the actual submission.
Duke of Marmalade
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I put it a draw and pretty boring at that. But draw was enough for Conservative majority to harden to 1.37 and my cash out to go over +50%.