WHats the strategy in calling an election for BJ?

As I said, I have a small bet on no overall majority. I think the opposition parties are doing their best to give the conservatives a majority but there are a couple of big unknowns going into the last week....

Firstly, the overall LibDem poll numbers are bad but it's hard to know if that reflects a general decrease or a concentration in certain constituencies where they have the best chances. If the later, it could be a problem for the conservatives.

Secondly, the "ground war" on the day... Labour have significantly more activists. Getting the vote out could be massive. And if it came to bad weather and the need for organisation, labour will be more effective.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
But draw was enough for Conservative majority to harden to 1.37 and my cash out to go over +50%.
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Back to 1.41

With some €10.3m already matched, it is a very tight market. Movement either way of a couple of points is somewhat significant. Movement any greater than that will signify some profound event occurring in the campaign. If such movement is not in your (or my) favor, it would be time to bail out.
 
WolfeTone said:
Back to 1.41

With some €10.3m already matched, it is a very tight market. Movement either way of a couple of points is somewhat significant. Movement any greater than that will signify some profound event occurring in the campaign. If such movement is not in your (or my) favor, it would be time to bail out.
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1.25 and +65%
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
1.25 and +65%
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I could be facing a bit of a hiding so! :oops:

Everything says I should cash out and cut my losses, but that gut feeling still persists.
Its the final week, the Tory press and Tory backers will be hyperbole this week predicting the landslide majority for Boris.
My instinct tells me it will be close, very close - im going to take up some more of this value market o_O
 
WolfeTone said:
Tory backers will be hyperbole this week
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Sterling shrugs off weak economic data

And they are off! Despite weak data, the Tory backers have strengthened Sterling against the Euro reaching a seven month high!

Time to dig in the trenches now, will I fall flat on my face or could this be my George Soros moment?*

*accepting that the scale of my potential rewards is closer to paying out for a round of drinks at the Christmas party and taxi fare home.
 
1.46

YouGov Sky News Poll

Im guessing this poll is the reason for price movement from 1.25 back to 1.46.

The landslide is still on, the majority Tory government still on more, but the prospect of a hung parliament...still festers.

Some points, and this is just my interpretation of information provided - lest anyone accuse me of being 'pointless' at some later stage whilst simultaneously providing pointless comments all by themselves.

The poll above gives the Brexit party a miserly 3.1%. This is the party that dominated the EU elections on 31% on the single issue of Brexit only 7 months ago.

As suggested here afterwards when dropping candidates for this election;

WolfeTone said:
Farage and his Brexit Party have absolutely capitulated. They have given free reign to Tories in Tory held seats to shore up votes for the "second worse deal of all time".

I dont see any point for their existence now. They will split the Leave vote from disenchanted Labour supporters in Labour seats, ensuring Labour returns.
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The Labour returns may, or may not, materialize, but noticeably in the above poll, the decline in the Labour vote matches very close the increase in the Lib Dem (Remain) vote.
And in true David McWilliams style - I was travelling in a taxi in Liverpool recently, the taxi driver derided Jeremy Corbyn, but ultimately said "no Labour man will ever vote Tory".
So while a big Labour vote shifted to Brexit Party, it was a one issue party that has since capitulated to the demands of the Tories.
And with that, the protesting Labour vote is realising a sudden reality check - who have we put our trust in?

The Brexit Party is dead, traditional tribalism is the order of the day, and where there is doubt, it is falling towards Remain parties, like Lib Dems.

That's my take, there are other factors of courses, but

@1.46

Im happy to lay some more.
 
cremeegg said:
Help. What does this mean.
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WolfeTone has bet against the Conservatives getting a majority (I'm guessing on Betfair). The bet is at 1.46 - so if you backed a Conservative majority at 1.46 it would mean for every €100 bet, you would win €46. WolfeTone is the other side of this bet - he is risking €46 for a €100 win (actually I don't know what odds he originally laid at - but the quote above means he is thinking of increasing his stake at odds of 1.46).

With Betfair, you can essentially trade a bet. So as the odds move up and down you can close out your bet for a smaller gain or loss. Hence, as the odds move Duke is calculating how much the bet is "in the money"

For the record - I also have a small bet against a Conservative majority from a little while back

Edit : Though I think Duke may have it wrong way around. If the odds for a Conservative majority are tightening, then WT is out of the money. As they lengthen, he'll be in profit as he has bet against the majority - I could be wrong
 
EmmDee said:
(actually I don't know what odds he originally laid at - but the
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I have 5 bets of varying amounts on odds ranging from 1.45 into 1.26.
It averages at 1.34 so im in the green at the moment.
I dont have large sums at stake, so I wont be cashing out before the result.
 
EmmDee said:
WolfeTone has bet against the Conservatives getting a majority (I'm guessing on Betfair). The bet is at 1.46 - so if you backed a Conservative majority at 1.46 it would mean for every €100 bet, you would win €46. WolfeTone is the other side of this bet - he is risking €46 for a €100 win (actually I don't know what odds he originally laid at - but the quote above means he is thinking of increasing his stake at odds of 1.46).

With Betfair, you can essentially trade a bet. So as the odds move up and down you can close out your bet for a smaller gain or loss. Hence, as the odds move Duke is calculating how much the bet is "in the money"

For the record - I also have a small bet against a Conservative majority from a little while back

Edit : Though I think Duke may have it wrong way around. If the odds for a Conservative majority are tightening, then WT is out of the money. As they lengthen, he'll be in profit as he has bet against the majority - I could be wrong
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I have bet for a majority at 2.08, as an insurance against that unwanted outcome. The bet is in the money as it has fallen to 1.43. The cash out is actually calculated by Betfair and is available at the push of a button and interestingly is now 44.44%.
 
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Duke of Marmalade said:
I have bet for a majority at 2.08, as an insurance against that unwanted outcome. The bet is in the money as it has fallen to 1.43. The cash out is actually calculated by Betfair and is available at the push of a button and interestingly is now 44.44%.
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Apologies - I thought you were commenting on WolfTone's bet when you were posting % gain etc. You were actually commenting on your own - in which case it totally makes sense
 
EmmDee said:
WolfeTone has bet against the Conservatives getting a majority (I'm guessing on Betfair). The bet is at 1.46 - so if you backed a Conservative majority at 1.46 it would mean for every €100 bet, you would win €46.
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Duke of Marmalade said:
I have bet for a majority at 2.08,
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Does that mean you win €208 for a €100 stake if the Tories win a majority ?? Surely a Tory majority was always the favoured outcome.

Or maybe I'm just not getting it.
 
cremeegg said:
Does that mean you win €208 for a €100 stake if the Tories win a majority ??
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You get €208 which includes your initial stake of €100, so you win €108.
One way to work it out compared to traditional fractional odds is to minus the decimal odds by 1.
So 5.00 is 4/1, 4.00 is 3/1, 2.00 is evens 1.25 is 1/4.
 
OK last chance for a prediction.

First off the Tories will lose seats to the SNP and Lib Dems. I put this at 20 seats back on 3 Nov. I still think that's is close enough, although it is more likely to be less rather than more.

After that either of two things will happen.

Thing 1

The Tories will gain seats from Labour in England in line with the polls.

By my reckoning would need to take a net 28 seats from Labour in England for a majority. They won 317 last time out, less 20 gives 297, means they need 28 more for the magic 325. On a national basis the polls clearly indicate they are likely to get this or a bit more, maybe 335.

And Thing 2 (as the immortal Dr Seuss once said)

Labour is 7 ish points in the polls below the level it won at the last election. 33% vs. 40%. That's just over 2 million people.

Where do these people live. Hardly in the major cities, they still support Labour. In the Tory shires where Labour never win seats anyway, maybe.

Or perhaps in the areas of Wales, the midlands and the north where Labour holds many seats. Constituencies which nearly all voted leave, the Tories have been canvassing hard there in the latter stages of the campaign. They scent victory here.
 
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