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charliemacck
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If you're going to troll, you really have to do better than that.
callaghanj
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Neither an estate or broker I'm afraid !! I meant it as a light hearted comment.....was thinking more of friends of mine who went on and on about house prices rising and often laughed at me when I mentioned there could be a crash. I was training as an insolvency practioner in London during the recesion of the early 90's and saw first hand what happened when the bubble burst. It was clear that Ireland was heading that way for a quite a few years but people choose to ignore it. I now see
clients often under the age of 30 with up to 10 homes with negative equity and having to advise them to file for bankruptcy. At least they can start again afer 12 months in NI....ROI 12 years. Properties often bought with 100% mortgages egged on by local bank managers keen to meet their ever rising targets. Things will get better but we all have a part to play in it.....that's my pennies worth anyway.
clients often under the age of 30 with up to 10 homes with negative equity and having to advise them to file for bankruptcy. At least they can start again afer 12 months in NI....ROI 12 years. Properties often bought with 100% mortgages egged on by local bank managers keen to meet their ever rising targets. Things will get better but we all have a part to play in it.....that's my pennies worth anyway.
Agreed, I was being sarcastic when asking your profession to be honest.
Anybody trying to be positive on this website generally gets accused of having an agenda (by people who are allergic to positive talk). . . .
People under 30 with 10 homes . . . Seriously !!! , thats mad . . .
callaghanj
Registered User
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Low interst rates will help too ...when i bought my first home in England in 87 interest rates were considered low but by the early 90's they had risen to 15%....at least we dont have to contend with that this time around though in the longer term we may see a sharp rise in interest rates....if the printing of money or QA takes effect....you have been warned....this could cause another set back for the housing market....a bit of gloom to take the shine of the earlier optimism!!
Hi Howitzer,
Could you point out my 'blind optimism'. I have merely asked that if the ban is in place it should be in place for both sides of the argument so as not to show any bias from AAM.
As far as i know you are around here a while and I would presume that you cannot lump me into a positive at all costs category because I do live in the real world and believe there is plenty of room for reasoned debate.
I have already been cautioned for speaking about mods decisions so can't comment.
The key word in my word was 'possibily' meaning that if such a thing were to happen wouldn't it be good to acknowledge it or even to counter the suggestion. If some people think that it nhas levelled off and want to buy now because of this then it allows those who have proof of otherwise to come forward and vice versa.
My logic stems from the fact that I don't have all of the facts and neither do you, but two heads are better than one and all that.
We cant close the door on possibilities.
EA's and brokers are VI's thas a well used argument that at times is warranted especially when they blatantly talk things up, but have we not gone past that stage. Are there VI's of a different nature here that are not as easily identified? People who will delight at the drop in prices and need it to drop more and more (possibly so they can make a killing themselves). Do some talk things down without fail and refuse to accept that there could be any hope of a levelling of prices let alone a recovery of any type. I personally think there are some like this and their arguments bring nothing to the debate as they are unwilling to listen.
I was replying to NorthDrum. Sorry for any confusion or the insinuation that your views aren't rational or balanced as it was not my intention.
Possibly. However, for most people this will be their biggest investment and suggesting that such a decision be based on a 'feeling' and attacking contrary views as unpatriotic and labelling them as the 'armageddon brigade' is hardly representing a balanced perspective; especially where these views are being expressed by VIs who have a financial imperative to ensure that people do not defer their decision to buy.
I see that those mad people in daft are reporting further declines in asking prices in the last quarter. They must have signed up to the armageddon brigade
Oh, and I noticed some pretty upbeat talk in yesterday's papers from an Estate Agent selling apartments at 'knock down' prices close to Finglas. Plus ca change.......
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charliemacck
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A complete distortion of the term "vested interest". 60% of the Irish Times' total revenue comes from estate agents; do you think that a few isolated people who'd like prices to drop come anywhere near that kind of power? That's what "vested interest" means.
Is that still the case and does the times cover the whole country or primarily Dublin? People are more likely to read posts than full property supplements, the times have changed as has the attitude. Its unusual to keep referring to the past when the landscape has changed so dramatically.
Possibly. However, for most people this will be their biggest investment and suggesting that such a decision be based on a 'feeling' and attacking contrary views as unpatriotic and labelling them as the 'armageddon brigade' is hardly representing a balanced perspective; especially where these views are being expressed by VIs who have a financial imperative to ensure that people do not defer their decision to buy.
I see that those mad people in daft are reporting further declines in asking prices in the last quarter. They must have signed up to the armageddon brigade
Seriously, your completely ignorant and unwilling to actually understand (or just unable) posts posts that try and give balanced opinions on this topic.
Never said buy a house simply because it feels good or that if you think theres bad news out there you are an Armageddon fan. Once again, your incapable of actually understanding balanced views. The George W Bush school of thinking "your either with us or against us" . .
Im not going into it anymore then that because anybody reading this thread will see way you have simply picked out a few words in each post and skewered them . . .
I presume your armageddon quotes are aimed at someone else, they are misleading when addressing me as I haven't used them. As regards a 'feeling' that is often the case with for instance a couple who want to take the next step forward, we don't always base our decisions on cold hard cash. Sometimes people want a sense of ownership, of taking control of their own surroundings so a house makes perfect sense to them. I balance my view by saying 'some times' and 'some people' because believe it or not we are not all wired the same.Possibly. However, for most people this will be their biggest investment and suggesting that such a decision be based on a 'feeling' and attacking contrary views as unpatriotic and labelling them as the 'armageddon brigade' is hardly representing a balanced perspective; especially where these views are being expressed by VIs who have a financial imperative to ensure that people do not defer their decision to buy.
I see that those mad people in daft are reporting further declines in asking prices in the last quarter. They must have signed up to the armageddon brigade
This response is completely true to form. You vindicate everything I originally said. Your only recourse is to personal attack.
Perhaps you should extend your perjorative ranting to calling me a fanatical jihadist or some other rubbish. You have not produced one iota of balanced view, nor addressed the fact of oversupply, falling demand and continued falling prices.
You make money from people buying houses and to consider that your view is in anyway balanced and not vested is completely disingenuous. It is akin to having Seany Fitz suggesting that there is no conflict with him running the Regulators office.
At this point, I am going to bow out of the 'discussion'.
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charliemacck
Guest
You tell me.
The Irish Times is a national newspaper.
Do you think that, for example, the Irish Independent or Sunday Tribune follow completely different financial models to the Irish Times, and don't rely on property advertising for a substantial portion of their revenue?
Certainly, the Tribune takes it property advertising seriously enough to sack its Business Editor. Richard Delevan, when he remarked negatively on the housing market, linking it to the fact that Ken MacDonald couldn't sell his house:
[broken link removed]
Are you suggesting that postings to internet forums are more widely read than the property supplements of national newspapers?
Are you suggesting that VIs such as estate agents no longer have influence with the media, and that's we're some kind of whole new socialist paradigm where advertising has no influence on editorial?
Bow out after offering nothing in the way of a balanced discussion . . .
I simply tried out lowering my level to yours by ignoring any valid points you made, while fun, its less satisfying then accepting other points and discussing them further.
You dont actually reply to any of my points, you simply just call them bias and just throw out other disjointed facts or points that you couldnt even properly discuss. (kinda like Mary Coughlin, shes great at reading off a pre made statement but ask her to delve deeper on her views and she hasnt a clue).
And by the way those Daft figures are based on the national average house price falling from €344,000 to €281,000 since the peak in 2007. This is only a 19% drop in value. I have been talking about factoring in between 40% - 60% decrease in house values. Some of the statistics available havent even fully factored in my "positive try to get everybody to splash out on property" predictions. What people ask for and what they should realistically expect are two totally differant things . . .
If you actually understood my posts you would see that I wasnt simply saying "alls well, buy buy buy". But then again Im not saying, put your money under your mattress, close all the doors, trust nobody and pray for the love of god that this recession doesnt kill you . . .
The very fact that some people have replied here, who arent EA's or MB's, looking positively at the housing sector, (which you dont even awknowledge) only further debunks your delusional V.I theory that other doom and gloom merchants prescribe to.
The truth is , Things are bad right now. Things could be bad for the next couple of years. House prices, realistically have gone down more then even todays statistics have shown. There are very very good deals out in the marketplace right now. Predicting a House price collapse (if you accept that 40% value decrease is not the tip of the iceberg) is simply scaremongering. It is always a possibility but is DEFINANTLY not a probobility.
There is a huge demand for houses, but not enough money in the banks to meet this demand. There are a huge amount of houses for sale because people cant get money. People are also afraid to buy because of what their neighbours are saying about the end of the world "economics" style. They forget that markets and economies have gone through recessions and crashes before, and have eventually recovered.
Builders have cut down dramitically the new houses they are building. People have cut down on expenses they dont need. People will , in this country, sooner save for a deposit on a family house, then save for a car.
Unemployment is going up hugely, as companies are preparing themselves for tough times ahead. This is actually a good thing long term because these companies are factoring in the bad times now and our economy can bring out measures sooner to try to get other jobs into the country. (note for simpletons - No Im not saying unemployment is good) . These negative things need to happen before markets can recover.
But notice that everything points to companies, governments and property markets factoring in all the bad things (in fact over factoring them in) to try to help us get over this crisis quicker.
Times are tough and could get tougher. How we recover will depend an awful lot on how the U.S. and E.U recover as a country.
By all means, continue to save if you are worried about the state of the country and dont want to take the plunge or risk that house prices could continue to drastically drop. Buying a house at anytime is stressful. My house has lost alot of its value (at least a third) and is in negative equity. In hindsight of course I wouldnt of bought it had I known this would happen, but I have a job and can afford the repayments and wasnt planning on moving for many years.
Nobody knows for sure what is going to happen, one economist will say we are near the worst of the property crash, another might say this is just the beginning.
Am I upset . . Of Course . . .
Do I lose sleep over it . . Honestly no because its more important for me to keep my job so I can afford it and anyways, its only worth something when I am looking to sell it.
If I was buying today I would consider it a tough one to call. Should I view todays prices as a bargain in comparison to what people paid at the top of the bubble . . Or . . . do I say I am "catching a falling Knife" and that prices will PLUMMIT further. Thats a personal decision that only individuals can make after weighing up their personal desires with the information that they have and how they interpret it, regarding the current economic troubles.
I have to admit I can now see the reasons why the mod's closed this sort of thread in the first place. It has already started to descend into personal attacks.
The real shame here is that when places like AAM can't discuss the matter in a balanced light people head to forums like the propertypin and only get their very one sided view on the market.
The real shame here is that when places like AAM can't discuss the matter in a balanced light people head to forums like the propertypin and only get their very one sided view on the market.
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