should i buy now

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Ciaraella, excellent reason and one which is a fine example of smart buying, you will not be influenced by short term dips as your in it for long term and added bonus of course that the whole thing will become a positive equity with handsome rewards, has happened before :) and will happen again, its simple economics!

Maximus152
 
NorthDrum said:
but theres nothing to SUGGEST that they will decrease dramatically either.
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While your post in the main was good I'm sorry but this bit is rubbish. There is a lot to suggest that prices will decrease and dramatcially at that. A 3.7bn deficit in march which includes 38% decrease in excise and a 22% decrease in tax (largely capital gains from no house sales!). The two main industries (cars and houses) fuelled by Irish peoples greed and crusade for status over the past 10 years.

Our economic wealth was built on a property bubble created by Irish people selling each other houses with money that was borrowed from someone else. Now the free money is gone what else can happen other than house prices collapsing.

"Catching a falling knife" is a really good analogy!
 
I agree with Curiously. Push the boat out & treat yourself, rent a great house/apartment in a place u couldn't afford to buy, enjoy life and dont burden yourself with a new house purchase that you'll lose ur shirt on.
 
Fair points, but prices can only drop so much relative to the actual purchasing price in a certain climate, for example if your buying a house for 180,000 (there are 3 & 4 bed semi at this price, see daft) and you know its good value and it may fall +/- 10,000 if even, well thats quiet a good buy in any book, reason being when things do stablise which they will as night becomes day you will have a healthy and bountyful crop in a few years. Well thats my way of thinking, obviously waithing and renting is another way to do this, but I was always one to believe get your foot in early at a point where you do not feel dizzy or liable to injury from a fall. We are not going back to the stoneage here, ppl need to calm down.


Maximus152
 
Maximus - that's all well and good, and logical. If ur talking about a +/- 10,000. What if we're talking about -80,000 and prices not recovering for 10 years? Add to that, a slow recovery during which u will still be able to pick up bargains as everyone recovers from the carnage that has gone before. It's not necessarily going to happen, but it's not inconceivable.

I had to laugh at the lazy journalism last week when that house on Eglinton Road sold for 1.6M at auction, with everyone herlading it as a signal as being at or close to the bottom - just because something sold in auction, and for dramatically less than it would have before, the property editors assume we're nearing the bottom. You could equally use the data to justify we're nowhere near the bottom - things are going to get far worse in the economy and prices are already down to this...
 
David, no thats not what I mean, and I agree with your point, properties at the higher end will and can still fall thats a given, this is because there is still so much over value and volitility surrounding them. For example if I was bestowed 1 million euro from a rich old Aunt (fat chance) I would not even look at anything approaching the 400 Euro mark, but in the 120,000 to 200,000 I would have a nice time cutting a deal with builder or whom ever. Look thats just me, I do my own thing anyways always have at the end of the day life is short so be happy and responsible for your choice and do not blame ppl who did not tell you or who did lol.... I have heard a few of them.:)

Maximus152
 
Maximus - sound principles for making decisions. Caveat emptor and all that, own ur own decisions and not blaming others is always a good starting point.

I think ur prob right re there being greater scope for bigger falls in higher end stuff, but I wonder if there is still not 20-30% left to fall off the 200k bracket. Who knows? One thing that bemuses me is the economists getting it wrong all the time, their economic models only serving to explain what has gone before. Economic models only work like any equation, your inputs create a result. Nobody knows what the inputs are going to be in the future, so trying to predict the output is nonsense.
 
David, totally agree on what you say about Economist's. There are two types of Economist's in this world one's that think they know it all and one's who know nothing, :) Really though economics can be useful depending on what you are looking at. If you are forecasting into the future of the housing market its basically out the window, anything can happen, this is why your a better judge if you have any savy you can read it on the ground and equate some rational/street wise savy into your choices, there is no point in some guy straight out of Uni dressed in a Dark blue pin striped suit (power glasses included) telling you what he thinks and what all of us should do, that's just not reality and never ever was. In fact you can see this even in the world of stock, if you look at daily trends the follow a pattern, but the pattern is supposed to be reality, when in fact its the people looking at what's just happened are creating it lol (may explained it wrong but you will see if you look at it, its bizarre).20-30% fall of yes can happen, but I would wager it will not go that low and if I bought at that I would be more than willing to accommodate 20-30% of 200k as opposed to 20-30% of 400k and safe in the knowledge that it will recover, and that is the REALITY!

Maximus152
 
Ciaraella said:
If you love the house, if it's in an area you want to live in for the next twenty years and you can afford it then i'd say go for it..
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Exactly the situation we are in now - we've found THE house in a location where houses never come up for a price that we can afford and we are going for it. If we were considering something like a 3bed semi in an out-of-town estate, we'd hold off - they may bottom out but they'll hardly start jumping up quickly as there is huge supply. Just my 2pc.

Best of luck anyway, and as my mammy says, "If it's for ya, it won't go by ya"!
 
curiously said:
While your post in the main was good I'm sorry but this bit is rubbish. There is a lot to suggest that prices will decrease and dramatcially at that. A 3.7bn deficit in march which includes 38% decrease in excise and a 22% decrease in tax (largely capital gains from no house sales!). The two main industries (cars and houses) fuelled by Irish peoples greed and crusade for status over the past 10 years.

Our economic wealth was built on a property bubble created by Irish people selling each other houses with money that was borrowed from someone else. Now the free money is gone what else can happen other than house prices collapsing.

"Catching a falling knife" is a really good analogy!
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The markets, including house prices have already reajusted hugely to the economic woes of our country. The figures we read today were factored in (to a large degree) already in the decreasing values of houses.

I dont necessarily think that the expected decreases in government income to be a good indicator that the property market will continue to fall rapidly.

Personally, I sort of chuckle when people talk of economys or house price collapses. Im not saying it isnt possible, but they base this on information that suggests tough times, but doesnt necessarily equate to the "end of the world" assumptions many people love to champion.

As a member of the EU we are in a much better position to protect ourselves from such disasters. Doesnt mean it cant happen, but it helps, particularly being part of a stronger currency.

Anybody, whether they be doom and gloom merchants or not, should NEVER EVER EVER, rely on the Irish Media or RTE to base their opinions on how this country is going to fair long term. They sell stories, not truths . . If you get your information from external sources you get a greater understanding of the state of the nation. Right now people are scared and panicked, any little piece of bad news in the press is being reported 10 fold over any good news. Its true that there are more awful things happening, but thats no reason for people to simply jump off the scale of reasonable expectations.

Regarding House prices , there is a supply and demand issue (physically and monetary wise). Builders are not building many anymore, in 2 or 3 years times there should be a much higher demand for houses. This should have an impact on your house price or at the very least reduce the impact of other factors pushing the reduction of house prices.

Also, banks werent lending for the guts of a year (and still dont to a degree) which impacts on the value of houses. If people cant get funds to buy, supply increases and demand decreases.

Houses around Dublin city should maintain , longterm, their value as their is only so much space in Dublin.

So-

  • banks are slowly beginning to release capital for purchases
  • New Properties being built have pretty much stopped from a peak of 90k or so
  • People are availing of possibly up to 60% decreses in certain areas
  • Lender criteria is being tightened
Will they continue to go down rapidly? I dont personally think so, they may still godown 5% - 10% in the next couple of years, but I think there is more suggesting that they will level off sooner rather then later. This may not be the case and everything could go to hell but given the information available right now I think this is a reasonable assumption.
 
lol FireFly well said!
Best of luck anyway, and as my mammy says, "If it's for ya, it won't go by ya"!

Good post!

Maximus
 
Howitzer said:
And unemployment, that'll have no effect?
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Im not saying that, I am saying that the figures we have available dont necessarily point to a housing collapse.

There are predictions of up to 15% unemployment by the end of next year. Everybody is trying to overshoot on the negative side so we can get a softer landing (as soft as possible) or at least prepare for tough times. I still see 15% unemployment as 85% employment, but thats just me. I try to err on the positive side (without being naieve).



I dont think theres anything wrong with trying to take positives from our current situation.
  • People are being forced to learn how to budget
  • Banks are being forced into bringing in more prudent lending practises
  • This country is being forced into being more competitive
  • Some of the cosier cartels and fatcat agreements are being investigated and attacked
Im not saying that a housing collapse is impossible, just improbable. I would of said the slump in Bank shares was highly unlikely 2 years ago, but at that time there was very little to suggest this disaster would take hold.

In a recession people get depressed and struggle to see any positives or any end to the troubles. Funnily enough its when most investors make most of their money (if we are talking about a house on an investment scale). Im not for one minute suggesting people buy houses as investments now , but nobody will ring a bell when the worst troubles are over and when housing prices will stabalise.

If they dont go up or down much in the next five years and salaries dont go up or down much, then you havent really gained anything by continuing to rent (when renting specifically waiting for house prices to hit bottom!)

All I am saying is that if you do your homework and factor in ups and downs (within reason) on purchasing a house, there is no need for you to be scared of making the jump. There will NEVER be a time when buying a house will be risk free.
 
NorthDrum said:
There are predictions of up to 15% unemployment by the end of next year. Everybody is trying to overshoot on the negative side so we can get a softer landing (as soft as possible) or at least prepare for tough times. I still see 15% unemployment as 85% employment, but thats just me. I try to err on the positive side (without being naieve).
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That is the most ridiculous statement I have ever heard. The highest unemplyment in the history of the state was about 17% but you think that is OK because 83% are employed :rolleyes:
 
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