should i buy now

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leghorn said:
Has the ban on house price discussion now being lifted?
(I suppose since there must at last now be consensus on the issue)
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I would be great to get an answer to this - yes or no? People have been recently for making responses far more innocuous in response to someone asking about whether or not it's a good time to buy. To be honest, if's people cannot speculate about house prices drops, then questions on the line of "is it a good time to buy" should be banned too, as anyone answering "no" is liable to be banned.
 
NorthDrum said:
People are being forced to learn how to budget
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What's positive about this? People have less to spend - therefore, they will purchase less goods, which will have a knock-on effect on retail, which in turn puts people out of work, who will then have less to spend... Being positive about this is a bit like thinking "I've had my legs cut off - never mind, I'll spend less on trousers".
Banks are being forced into bringing in more prudent lending practises
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"Prudent" = "terrified to lend money to even reputable and worthwhile businesses, because, oops, we gave it all to developers while not encouraging people to save in deposits because, ooops, they were spending all their money on mortgages/rent".
This country is being forced into being more competitive
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We haven't a hope of this happening unless rents and mortgages come down even more. Do you know how far salaries and mortages/rent will have to come down before we can compete with, say, Eastern Europe?
Some of the cosier cartels and fatcat agreements are being investigated and attacked
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Pull the other one. Name _one_ person who so far has been punished for taking part in the bubble debacle.

Im not saying that a housing collapse is impossible, just improbable. I would of said the slump in Bank shares was highly unlikely 2 years ago, but at that time there was very little to suggest this disaster would take hold.
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Was the slump in bank shares "improbable"? If so, then why do you think two inprobably events in a row will not happen?

Also, house prices in Dublin have dropped 40% already, with no levelling off in sight. Is this not a "collapse"? If not, then what percentage drop will you admit is a collapse?

It amazing how people even now, with 30,000 on the dole every month, are still drinking the kool aid.
 
Any kind of risk analysis would look at two angles - the likelihood of the risk occurring, and the impact of the risk if it does happen. A simple but effective approach is to rank each of impact and likelihood on a 1-10 scale and multiply them out. Much of the discussion here has focussed on the likelihood of markets going up/down, but has not looked at the impacts of these risks.

The OP might want to fill in a 4-square matrix for liklihood and impact of prices going up or down by say €30k, and see how it works out.
 
I've gone ahead and bought....I got a good deal...the house was not in a development and a real gem. Saw no reason to wait!!
 

Try understanding my point before ranting off . .

I love this whole "you think this is ok" waffle. Ah, the glass is half empty. Another one of those . . . All the signals points to armageddon. Really, there is no point in discussing anything rationally with your kind.

Im not saying things are great and everything is going to be fine. Im saying the markets have factored in some of the bad news and some of the things to come down the road. The very fact that we have high figures of unemployment predicted has given some level of reality to markets and prices alike.


And Charlie, dont annoy me with the "whats positive about" . . . . Its just the usual "lets take the bad out of everything" negative Joe view, where you just DONT WANT TO VIEW ANYTHING POSITIVELY. Its the reason why RTE and the media in this country find it so easily to depress the hell out of so many. Its also the reason why they get so many viewers, so many people in this country want to read about all the bad things happening to our economy (but pretend that its simply to keep themselves informed!). As I said, anybody using Irish Mediums to "keep themselves Informed" on the state of our economy, is only getting half the picture (if that). Im not naieve, Im a realist, but trying to find the good out of the bad is far more productive then trying to find more bad out of the bad.

So you think that people having to learn to save and be prudent with their money is bad long term . . . This seems to suggest you think there is some quick fix solution to all our woes, please do tell . . Oh we should go down the Obama route, yes, of course, shame we dont have access to the same levels (even in Irish Terms) of funds to bring out such a package.


Banks had to readjust their lending criteria, last year has been a knightmare but we are hopefully coming out of that moment. Like I said, its easy to look at the last year, look at Expected unemployment increase and forget that these things have already contributed significantly to decreases in house prices.

We dont have to necessarily be as competitive as Eastern European countries, if it was that simple we wouldnt have any foreign investment in this country (and wouldnt of been able to get it when our wages and salaries were spiralling out of control during boom).

Nobody has been held accountable yet, but at the moment they are very uncomfortable. I have to believe that something will be done and they are being investigated, they are certainly not as comfortable as they were same time last year. Your not suggesting that the most important thing right now is to hang these guys by the football, do you think that will solve our economic woes, or perhaps just make you feel a little bit better. Here is a suggestion, when this thing eventually levels off, then protest on the streets about all these fatcats who have gotten away with x , y , z. That is when you will get things done, after the most important factors of economies in a recession are taken care of. Im not saying they shouldnt be arrested right now but its not the most important thing that needs to be done right now.

Im not talking about what will happen, I am talking about what is probobley likely given the figures we have at hand. Much of this has been expected (much of it not) and I believe the markets have factored in alot of what we will see in the next year (if there are no more surprises). There is as much a likelyhood of things declining at this stage as there is of things levelling off. The blind panic so many people are showing is simply because nobody really knows whats going to happen. Everything is speculation based on the rapidly ever changing environment.

You can continue to assume the worst and see everything pointing towards the four horses, or you can accept that people are still buying houses, people still need houses, demand will increase over the next couple of years and we will eventually get over this crisis.


The gospel according to the Armageddon Brigade.

  • hang the bankers, this is the main way of solving our countries problems, at the very least it will get us back on track
  • if this doesnt solve the problems revert to Panic, throw out every negative stat you can get your hands on. Positive thoughts of any kind are unacceptable and should make you ashamed of yourself.
  • then accept that we are all screwed and lets just talk about the impending disaster (dismissing any positive talk as crazy!).
  • Since its going to happen, we might aswell embrace the IMF (Who will of course run out of money), then embrace farming in our back gardens (as we will have no money for anything) and then it will be down to raping and pillaging . . .
  • A new Ireland will be born, everybody will follow the same code of negativity and depression, anybody who speaks positively gets burned at the stake . . . .
 
NorthDrum well said, CallaghanJ well done now try and enjoy your home! Some of the post in here speak volumes, I would hate to see some of you trying to do some grocery shopping, heaven for bid there was a sale! lol talk about indecisive... I mean I will, but sure I wont will I? Ah Yes! I will definetly...but what about Mars and ists solar eclipse...

Maximus152
 


Having followed this ban for a long time as i'm sure you have I'm constantly surprised at the amount of posts that constantly try to batter any positive sentiment towards the property market yet are allowed on this site. If someone asks is there a rise in sales or prices they will be shut down but if someone asks is it a good time to buy the inevitable 'no way are you mad' are allowed to smother any reasoned argument.

If there is a ban there is a ban but it should be absolute or lifted. We are now at a place where there is a real possibility of things having levelled off so it is important for people to be able to share their knowledge especially when some are thinking of taking the plunge into buying again or for the first time.
 
NorthDrum said:
Congradulations on your new home. If its right for you, its right for you . . .
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Well done, there is so may more factors to buying a house than simple economics and I hope it works out well for you.
 

Agreed.
 

Are you honestly trying to tell people outside the AAM moderator bubble that people have been banned for talking up the property market, but not vice versa?
 
NorthDrum said:
Agreed.
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I find it hard to reconcile the positivity you've displayed on this topic with your thoughts elsewhere.




Other than the fact that you're a Mortgage Broker and that MrMan is an Estate Agent I can't see any other reason for your blind optimism - on this subject. How can you make that statement and still come out with the advice you'rve given the original poster on this thread?

Crazy talk.
 

That is strange logic. The site should reconsider the ban because you think things have levelled off and now it is important to share that knowledge.
 

Like I said time and time again, the markets have factored much of these hard times in already. What you cant understand is that there is a balance between people who cannot grasp whats going on in the country and think sure everything will be ok, with people who only see doom and gloom with no constructive comments to add to debates. You, my friend simply see the doom and gloom, I can accept that, but dont for a minute think that it has to be either one way or the other, some people are able to balance their feelings and understand and factor in both sides of the debate (because everything we are talking about is opinions, nothing is absolute . . ).

Dont know why I repeat myself, but I am somewhere in between (WHHHAAAT, Is this possible for people to recognise the gravity of the situation but be positive on the countries long term outlook . . somebody get a priest, this guys possessed!) . To people like yourself that think any negative news is going to lead us towards a housing collapse, I will err on the more subtle side of predictions (predicting a house crash is sensationalist and based mainly on fear). To people who storm the streets demanding that they not be taxed, I say they do not understand the gravity of the situation. Cant be much clearer then that.

Your comments on me being a mortgage advisor are not really surprising to be honest. Whenever anybody trys to shed some sort of positives on the economy they get the same drivel. Either they are fatcats looking to promote their own interets, have a vested interest in making a debate go a certain way, or they are just "drinking too much caffeine". Its your stereotypical USA republican answer to most discussions that they cant intellectually win. If you cant proove them wrong in debate, just slag them off or shout the loudest or throw some mud that hopefully takes the focus off your unbalanced opinions . .

My motives are soley to give my opinions on this board and give people advice on areas I feel I can help them with. Look through my posts and tell me that I canvass for businees to all the members. If I was simply looking for business here you wouldnt see me in ANY arguements. It doesnt make sense for somebody trying to promote their business by arguing with half the clientell. If people agree with me great, if they dont, fine. I find this website great to bounce off my opinions and gauge peoples opinions on topics, because seldom are things in life "black or white". In my profession you dont get many chances to debate your industry or debate peoples feelings on certain aspects of it.

Now you dont have the "vested interest" card, what other mud can you throw my way to proove you are completely right . . . And just to make a point, even if I was pushing my agenda, while it may take some credibility away from my points, it doesnt make them invalid. House prices have gone down anywhere up to 60% in the last 2 years, yet salaries have gone down perhaps 5%-10%. So my €100 to buy a house two years ago is worth roughly €150 (in terms of buying power of similar houses). . . House building has declined 85% since the peak of the boom. Demand for houses mainly dropped because money wasnt available, but should be easier to get as banks begin to give mortgages again. Are these reasons why the property market will recover? well they help but ultimately they will not neccasarily help a complete recovery of the property market , because there are other factors affecting the prices of houses (unemployment . . ) . There you go, a nice balanced take on some figures.

Jees . . . Whats with all the cynics on AAM, I reckon there is a strong arguement for a conspiracy theory Section. Just let these guys go there and rant off about the end of the world and everybody trying to dupe them . . .
 
Thomas22 said:
That is strange logic. The site should reconsider the ban because you think things have levelled off and now it is important to share that knowledge.
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Yeah, very strange - it was OK to keep the ban in place during a property bubble when warning people might have helped.

MrMan, are you an estate agent?
 
I always found the ban very suspicious, this is a financial website offering advice on all financial matters, but you could not get honest opinions on the largest purchase you're every likely to make. The excuse of everything being said and too much heated conversations is a joke, and a costly one at that.
I dare say a good few people in 2006/7/8 lost thousands by not getting accurate advice on here.





I await this post being deleted.
 
I don't find it at all strange that estate agents and mortgage brokers are posting 'buy' recommendations on the basis of 'if it feels right' then its right for you. Nor, indeed, do I find it strange that they can post long indignant rants if you raise any question marks over the objectivity of their advice or just take an opposite view.

I am also not surprised if they particularly hate any suggestion that they are completely disqualified from commenting on a question like the one posted by the OP by virtue of the fact that their livelihoods depend on people deciding to buy houses, and will use all and any argument to promote buyers in the market.

I recall another thread on overseas property where a disaffected employee of an estate agent alleged that these type of fora were used by his former employer to start threads as a marketing tool.

Assuming that this is a genuine OP, I would make the point that there are plenty of websites now tracking asking prices and movement of house prices in most areas where a person would want to buy. These websites still show a downward trend and based on the current state of the economy there is nothing to suggest that more distressed sellers will not be coming onto the market in the near term. There is still an overhang of supply for residential and rental property (per my last look at daft figures) and current potential rental yields on property are still below long run yields on property. General economic principles would suggest that continued oversupply and weak demand will lead to continued reduction in the near term i.e. next 12 months.

Btw, it would be helpful if posters indicated if they were estate agents or mortgage brokers.

Senna, I am sympathetic to your (soon to be deleted?) post. TMF did not suffer by having open, heated bull v. bear views on UK property market.
 
NorthDrum said:
hang the bankers, this is the main way of solving our countries problems
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I'm not going to respond in detail to this self-pitying rubbish, I have better things to do on a Sunday afternoon . Suffice to say, you originally said that the "fat cats" and "cosy cartels" were being attacked, I pointed out that not one person responsible has been punished, and you completely mispresent my opinion and create an entire strawman argument that I want to "hang the bankers". I'm sure people in this forum can see through a typical tactic from a VI.

Personally, I feel that, for transparency, all moderators of this forum should have their job title in their .signature.
 
Charlie and askar.

I can be just as ignorant to your posts and not respond to points you make, sort of makes it easier for you to continue on your "motive" theory without having to properly respond.

You presume I am promoting people to buy houses on a whim, but fail to even awknowledge the very fair, relevant points I make. You have taken what you wanted out of my posts. Anybody with the remotest intelligence will be able to ascertain that even as a financial advisor, I have a far more balanced view of the countries woes then your own very Ill educated, poorly qualified opinions.

Im not really sure where you get the idea that I am writing "self pity" rubbish, particularly as you dont even qualify what exactly I have written to suggest I am championing support for a cause with a hidden movtive(thats all in your heads).

I dont hide my profession (my website link is below), I explain the reasons why I feel a certain way (not based soley on my cynical presumptions) and I awknowledge that things could very well get worse (as opposed to assuming everything points one way or the other).

How about we leave things be. I think you guys are one of the many Armageddon delusional ill informed of this nation and you think Im an advisor with a vested interest to screw as many people as possible.
 
I think people are now just full of doom and gloom about the property market and are mad at themselves for not seeing it coming!!! We all have a part to play in getting out of this mess and the best way is to remain positve and continue spending the pennies or cents!! House prices will stop dropping once the banks start lending and that will come around quicker than you think.
 
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