Normalcy, you have to say normalcy (instead of normality) when talking about the US. Personally I hate the word and, given it's a noun, "normal" would do fine where either is used. Considering I can't spell I really have no place being so persnickety about things like grammer, punctuation and word (mis)usage but it still gets to me. It's now up there with "Pacifically".I think it is a mistake to think that US politics is returning to any level of normality anytime soon.
If postal voting was so easy to 'nudge', did the Russians forget this time to help out Trump - as they are alleged to have done last time...
You can still bet 50k on Biden at 1.09 on Betfair. Can anyone explain?
I really can’t understand that. Surely, surely no way Trump can win.Biden still paying 6% return on Betfair exchange. With over €600,000 in the pot!
I really can’t understand that. Surely, surely no way Trump can win.
Easiest 6% otherwise. I'm keeping an eye on the pot, when it starts to empty out might be the time to back it.
So you'll be waiting a while
I think Dec 14th is the day the result is officially declared? That's only a few weeks away.
I know the dates - I was referring to your comment that you'd wait for the "pot" to empty out
It does seem absolutely inconceivable that Biden's victory will be overturned. Nonetheless, I have huge respect for Betfair. They were calling this election much closer than opinion polls suggested and they were correct. Betfair is as close to an Efficient Market as I have seen. If €2m is available at 6% then 6% is the correct assessment much as that seems most improbable. They are also open for betting on the various swing states with pay offs ranging from 4% to 7%.Yes. My guess is that the closer we get to 14th then, in the absence of some court decision to suggest otherwise, then Biden will be likely to be formally announced as President. This will induce alot of punters to take up that offer (conversely alot of punters to cancel the offer) of €2m+ sitting at 1.06, and of 1.05 and of 1.04 etc....meaning those pots will be emptied out by punters backing those prices and cancelling the offer. When that starts to occur, that may be the time to back it as it signifies an almost certain outcome. So if you can get 6%, all the better.
It does seem absolutely inconceivable that Biden's victory will be overturned.
Yes and what is perplexing me is that if you look at the betting graph, €57m has been matched at this price of 1.06. It is the largest tranche of matched bets in market with near €800m matched. This suggests that betting activity is at its most intense (for want of a better word) at this price, which I find peculiar.
It generally means that the market is tight at that price.
Now, I generally do these types of bets for novelty, I mostly concentrate on team sports to get value because I have an more informed knowledge about soccer and GAA than predicting election outcomes. A bet at 1.06 in a sports match signifies a near certain result. However, at such a price, a freakish own goal, controversial penalty or simply a touch a genius can overturn all expected outcomes in an instant.
So what is the freakish own goal, penalty or bit of genius that is propping up this market at 1.06? The only plausible thing I can think of is that Biden is near the average life-expectancy age!
Even still, it seems a bit cold to limit the man's prospects of being declared winner in a few weeks time on this basis, if this is what is occurring?
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