November 3, 2020: Consolidated General Election.

WolfeTone

Registered User
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585
Trump has instructed the transition process for Biden presidency to commence.... Biden still at 1.03 in Betfair....what could possibly go wrong?
 

EmmDee

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553
Trump has instructed the transition process for Biden presidency to commence.... Biden still at 1.03 in Betfair....what could possibly go wrong?
Even better - Georgia has certified results and Democrats can still be backed at 1.03
 

EmmDee

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553
Biden available at 1.08 to 555K. What is going on here?
Who knows - I know there is still quite a lot of money in the markets from the QAnon / MAGA types who firmly believe there is a behind the scenes plan going on. But can't believe it would be this level of cash. Unless the liquidity on the offered side has gone over Thanksgiving - pushing prices up a little
 

joe sod

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Trump gave a press conference last night obviously a very unhappy man but he will be leaving the white house. He gave one fact that is hard to explain by chance, Obama beat Biden in all of the states except in those crucial swing states that Biden barely won this year, in those few crucial states Biden beat Obama. How do you explain that given that Obama won the election big, so why would only in the swing states Biden beats Obama?
 

odyssey06

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2,776
Trump gave a press conference last night obviously a very unhappy man but he will be leaving the white house. He gave one fact that is hard to explain by chance, Obama beat Biden in all of the states except in those crucial swing states that Biden barely won this year, in those few crucial states Biden beat Obama. How do you explain that given that Obama won the election big, so why would only in the swing states Biden beats Obama?
Not sure if I'm following you correctly, but I would assume it means Obama won big victories in traditional Democratic states as he had more appeal to the base than Biden. But they are strong Democrat states and Biden as a Democrat in a general election beats a Republican there.
In swing states, the dynamic is different. Biden has more cross appeal and perhaps even the Democrats in those states would be more centrist.
 

Ceist Beag

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1,256
Trump gave a press conference last night obviously a very unhappy man but he will be leaving the white house. He gave one fact that is hard to explain by chance, Obama beat Biden in all of the states except in those crucial swing states that Biden barely won this year, in those few crucial states Biden beat Obama. How do you explain that given that Obama won the election big, so why would only in the swing states Biden beats Obama?
If his only "evidence" of fraud is that he doesn't like the way people voted and can't accept that they could be legitimate votes then he really is clutching at straws!
Odyssey put it well as to why it is entirely credible that people voted the way they did.
 

Purple

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10,317
Who knows - I know there is still quite a lot of money in the markets from the QAnon / MAGA types who firmly believe there is a behind the scenes plan going on.
They are also the people who believe in Creationism and Noah's Ark etc. When children are raised to believe all that nonsense it's easy to get them to believe in grand conspiracies and other stuff like that when they grow up as they are hard wired to ignore logic and rationality.
 

Peanuts20

Registered User
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229
Who knows - I know there is still quite a lot of money in the markets from the QAnon / MAGA types who firmly believe there is a behind the scenes plan going on. But can't believe it would be this level of cash. Unless the liquidity on the offered side has gone over Thanksgiving - pushing prices up a little
have you not heard, there was massive fraud in the election and it's only a matter of time before the result gets overturned :).

Trump won (in his head anyway) and many of his cult followers believe him and some of them are stupid enough to throw their money away.
 

EmmDee

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553
Trump gave a press conference last night obviously a very unhappy man but he will be leaving the white house. He gave one fact that is hard to explain by chance, Obama beat Biden in all of the states except in those crucial swing states that Biden barely won this year, in those few crucial states Biden beat Obama. How do you explain that given that Obama won the election big, so why would only in the swing states Biden beats Obama?
How does anyone explain a fact which isn't a fact? You first have to start off by ignoring Arizona and Georgia - two states Obama didn't win but Biden did. You then have to explain the non-fact that a number of the "swing states" are traditionally Democratic but Trump brought them into play in 2016. You then have to ignore a load of other states (e.g. Texas, North Carolina, California, Oregon, Washington etc etc) where Biden exceeded Obama's % vote but the result didn't change the overall winner

But other than that - he makes a great point
 

Leo

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How does anyone explain a fact which isn't a fact?
Yeah, he's playing to a crowd who are too lazy to do even the most basic of research themselves and fully willing to accept anything, no matter how crazy it sounds, so long as it aligns with their own world view. Many of these people's views are being informed by social media that just serves to reinforce existing viewpoints (show them more crap that aligns with their world view, more clicks, more advertising revenue) or the likes of Fox news who won a court battle so they could continue to report on events with bias and no regard for balance.
 

WolfeTone

Registered User
Messages
585
Out to 1.06/1.07 range now with over €3.5m in the pot for and against. What will it take to seal the deal for Biden as far Betfair punters go, and make him unbackable?
The price range 1.03-1.06 has sucked up some €555m of a €1.3bn market, or 42%.
 

Duke of Marmalade

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Out to 1.06/1.07 range now with over €3.5m in the pot for and against. What will it take to seal the deal for Biden as far Betfair punters go, and make him unbackable?
The price range 1.03-1.06 has sucked up some €555m of a €1.3bn market, or 42%.
Now 1.03 to be elected and 350K available at 1.02 Biden to win popular vote. The rules say this is the announcement of the popular vote winner according to CNN. 1.02 a bit unbackable but still how could a lead of 5 million votes be possibly overturned?
 

WolfeTone

Registered User
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585
how could a lead of 5 million votes be possibly overturned?
Trump has made maybe "the most important speech he has ever made" about an update on his efforts to expose voter fraud (as yet unsupported by any actual evidence).

The speech, typically rambling and at times comedy gold, did not do much but regurgitate the same election fraud allegations that he has been claiming for weeks and months. No actual evidence was produced save a few graph charts that may indicate some anomolies in the vote count patterns in some States.

However, underlying one of the most bizarre press conferences by anyone, anywhere, ever, appears a man thoroughly convinced that he is right in his claims and would appear, to me at least, to be prepared to use every legal and executive power in his armoury to delay, thwart, overturn the election result.
It is a long-shot, but my whole betting strategy for this market has been on long-shots, so I am taking one final punt and lay the 1.04 in the event that he is successful, even partially, in delaying the transition of power. At a minimum, there may be some action Trump can take that might spook the market in my favour, even temporarily.
 
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EmmDee

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... in delaying the transition of power...
Delay isn't possible (absent an actual coup). The 20th of January is a hard date. His last effort is to get the Senate to disregard the EC which would then mean the House picks.

Your plan might work if you take advantage of blips in the price and effectively day-trade the price
 

WolfeTone

Registered User
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585
Your plan might work if you take advantage of blips in the price and effectively day-trade the price
Yep, its an extremely long-shot, but did you watch the conference? I endured it for about 20mins, bizarre stuff, but not untypical of Trump. The only thing I could take from it is that having survived the Russia-gate debacle and the Ukranian impeachment farce, that possibly, just possibly, he has one or two moves left to make that could rattle the markets somehow. Certainly he did not come across as a man ready to concede defeat.
 
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