Assuming that the CNN & Fox & NY Times are correct then yes, any State will do.
November 3, 2020: Consolidated General Election.
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Duke of Marmalade
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Trump into 6 on Betfair. That is the throw of a dice or more aptly Russian Roulette with a 6 chamber revolver. Too early for easing up on the rosaries.
Surely, it's all over now? The Trump era is over! Insofar as his run as President goes anyway, I'm sure he will make a lot of noise for a considerable amount of time.
The Betfair price of 1.13 is surely the best guaranteed return (barring civil war) anywhere? Im certainly taking a piece of it, do some repairs to my losses overall in this market.
The Betfair price of 1.13 is surely the best guaranteed return (barring civil war) anywhere? Im certainly taking a piece of it, do some repairs to my losses overall in this market.
... given your self admitted betting history - I might have to close out my Biden bet This is my final call on this. I was positively optimistic that after Trump got elected that what would emerge in this US election would be that the great American people would bring about some fundamental or radical change to the politics of the old.
I started out early, three years ago, with a bet on Elizabeth Warren as having an outside chance at 12/1, thinking that despite HC's loss, that women are coming into the ascendency of American politics.
Then Gabbard, she was my ray of hope @80/1 and her odds did come in to about 25/1 at one point, but she got stitched up by DNC rule changes. I was convinced then that HC was planning a late surprise entrance so I covered that option at long odds of 60/1.
Then it was Michael Yangs turn, then it was Bernie's turn, but when they went bust it was starting to look desperate.
And indeed, a great hope arrived on the Twitter rumour mill around June this year that Jesse 'The Body' Ventura was going to make a late entrance for the Greens. What harm a €3 bet @ 1,000/1 ? His odds did temporarily move into 990/1.
So I have resigned myself to a reality that I just do not understand American politics. Two old white men is the best they conjure up. It really is a sad sorry state of affairs, similar to my betting options.
I am utterly unenthused by Biden and I cannot bring myself to back Trump
So final call is - Harris €2@ 1,000/1.
Yes, even my last minute declaration for Biden was met with a reversal of market prices, albeit temporary, in favour of Trump.
Hazzard warning all round!
Duke of Marmalade
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Betfair has Nevada at 1.07 (93%). I think we can bag that, but I share your nervous pessimism. This is agony, rather like a very long drawn out Russian Roulette play.
Duke of Marmalade
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Biden 1.08 (92%). I'm starting to relax, maybe have a good night's sleep tonight.
Ceist Beag
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Georgia and Pennsylvania are incredibly close. Whilst it provides great excitement for us over here, it's really sad that the US is so fragmented right now. Given there is already talk of Donald Jr for 2024, I see very little hope that things will improve much over the next term.
In a race this tight, I'm surprised there hasn't been a little more thought give to the impact of other 3rd party candidates on polling and on the results. In Florida for example, 115k people (about 1%) voted Green, Libertanian and other parties. I do wonder if they are included in pollsters canvasing or are they excluded and are people presented with just 2 choices?. Since these are often people (greens as an example) who would not vote for Trump, did that inflate Biden in the polls by 1-2%?
In most other states the % of 3rd party vote is higher, 1.5% in Arizona for example and in a race this tight, that is crucial
I can't help but wonder also if Trump will go quietly into the night or would his ego see him start his own party outside of the Republican party?
In most other states the % of 3rd party vote is higher, 1.5% in Arizona for example and in a race this tight, that is crucial
I can't help but wonder also if Trump will go quietly into the night or would his ego see him start his own party outside of the Republican party?
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It is incredible that the religious conservatism within the Latino community shifts so many of them into the Trump camp.
I don't think we fully grasp how big an issue abortion is in the US. It is probably a bigger issue than gun control and certainly bigger than same sex marriage and LGBTQ rights.
I don't think we fully grasp how big an issue abortion is in the US. It is probably a bigger issue than gun control and certainly bigger than same sex marriage and LGBTQ rights.
Duke of Marmalade
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Saw an interview with a Latino in Miami. She was Cuban and she said she knew what it was like to live under Communism, that’s why she voted Trump. The idea that the Democratic Party is communist is farcical,
If you had a dollar for every time a Democrat called a Republican a fascist incorrectly you'd be very wealthy.
Florida in general and Miami in particular, have that Cuban dynamic. They are strongly Republican.
It's that I'm talking about; the Archbishop of St. Louis having a letter read from every pulpit in his diocese basically telling people that they aren't proper Catholics if they don't vote for Trump.
It's that I'm talking about; the Archbishop of St. Louis having a letter read from every pulpit in his diocese basically telling people that they aren't proper Catholics if they don't vote for Trump.
You've be just as rich if you got the dollar for every time a Republican called a Democrat a communist incorrectly.
Cubans and Venezuelans in Florida have a distrust of Democrats - streches back to JFK. It's almost like the old FF / FG cultural divide here from the 70's
I'd say it goes far deeper than the the FF/FG thing.
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