Future price of Irish properties

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Loki said:
ivuernis

The point I was making is peopledesires are only a sign of their desires not good or bad. You are dead right in saying an investor is equally useless to use just becasue of their desires. The points of fact are all that should be used. Speculation on these facts is fine as speculation.

You said that just because somebody wants something does not make it good. Sometimes it does though... I would argue that people wanting affordable property is a good thing. People wanting property prices to rise is not a good thing though.

Granted, for the former to be satisfied NOW would require current property owners to lose money... this is the bind we find ourselves in 21st Century Ireland.

 
keth said:
.

As for the doom mungerers. either buy up or shut up please, and let the rest of us who had the courage and wherewithall to buy either way back in the late 1990's or more recently, to enjoy our fruits.

this is a debate thread ,if you have a problem with opinions that you dont share you shouldnt be here and definietly not telling people to shut up.

"enjoy your fruits" ? you are sitting on a paper profit and if you sell to move evey other property has gone up similarly in value, the only people who benefit from rampant house price increase are investors/those with more than one property or those selling their homes and moving to a cheaper country and the banks/estate agents/mortgage industry. so enjoy your fruits which will rot in time.
 
keth said:
Do these same people really think that as soon as the ballon starts leaking (even with the SSIA's coming on stream, and a strong economy abounding) that everyone will run screaming begging that their house be bought at a fraction of the cost paid for it.

If any type of downturn occurs, most people will hang onto what they have and wait for the next inexorable rise as is the longtime nature of natural inflation. The doom mungerers scenario of property ripe for the picking is naive to say the least and a fitting vision for anyone who's never held down a mortgage or anytype of responsibility.

Simply judging from the 2 closest boom property markets to us, UK and Holland, prices only stopped rising when they were unaffordable to new buyers. This is market forces at work. You're absolutely right that people will always try and hold onto their property no matter what. In both the UK and Holland there was an immediate fall in consumer spending once house prices reaching their peak as people could only afford either to hold their house or spend as before: keeping house always comes out on top.

In that scenario prices only fall when people holding onto their property are forced into selling. The worry is that the current Irish market is quite exposed in this respect because of the amount of people employed directly or indirectly through the housing sector itself, and due to the fact that we're are at the start of an increasing interest rate cycle over which we have no control. The people who were waiting to buy will be similarly effected and so unable to purchase. Freefall.
 
ivuernis said:
You said that just because somebody wants something does not make it good. Sometimes it does though... I would argue that people wanting affordable property is a good thing. People wanting property prices to rise is not a good thing though.

Granted, for the former to be satisfied NOW would require current property owners to lose money... this is the bind we find ourselves in 21st Century Ireland.

The qualification for it being good was that somebody wants it. Not a valid qualification just opinion dressed up. FIne to state your opinion but that is waht it is not fact. FOr exampl you think it is a good thing if prices drop but you are saying "People wanting property prices to rise is not a good thing though. " as fact state it as opinion.
 
Re: Bearish Bull - BullS**T

keth said:
Bearishbull,

Paper profits???

You are talking bull! I've bought and sold sveral times on paper profit and my current property is anything but paper. Obviously you are still living in your bedroom.
im not talking about you im talking about all the people you are talking about enjoying their fruits. im sure the most recent purchase you made was higher than your first purchase and had increased at similar rate to the first purchase did.
 
keth said:
I'm surprised no one has a placard naming the day the world ends. It's ironic, but most people waiting for the collapse are those without a roof of their own above their heads. These are the doom mungerers and professors of the bubble bursting.

Do these same people really think that as soon as the ballon starts leaking (even with the SSIA's coming on stream, and a strong economy abounding) that everyone will run screaming begging that their house be bought at a fraction of the cost paid for it.

If any type of downturn occurs, most people will hang onto what they have and wait for the next inexorable rise as is the longtime nature of natural inflation. The doom mungerers scenario of property ripe for the picking is naive to say the least and a fitting vision for anyone who's never held down a mortgage or anytype of responsibility.

As for the doom mungerers. either buy up or shut up please, and let the rest of us who had the courage and wherewithall to buy either way back in the late 1990's or more recently, to enjoy our fruits.

Again I OBJECT to anyone with a view, or god forbid a desire, that prices will fall from current levels, being put down and talked about as being nasty individuals. I obviously break your small-minded, stereotype. I have a roof over my head in Dublin, I rent it. I own other 'roofs over my head' in Canada and Honduras, and throughout my life I've owned several other 'roofs over my head'.

I feel sadness for whats happening in this country today. Yes, a sharp correction in prices scr*ws recent buyers, putting them in neg equity, but it benefits our children and their children who havent bought yet. The vast majority of homeowners will by-and-large be unaffected when this mania unwinds. Life will go on, they will live in their homes, the associated recession will pass, the key difference is house prices will be substantially lower

Give me on straight answer here: Tell me why are high property prices a good thing? Who benefits from houses costing x3 what they did 9yrs ago? Why should we as a society aspire to high and ever-spiralling-beyond-incomes prices for property?


WTTW
 
keth said:
I guess by Trotski-ite I mean those who are almost 'unwilling' to take the chance that most other hard working people have. These same people are adamant about their stance almost believing that a low cost house is their right. Did we forget that we're living in a free market (almost) and that the persuit of dreams via money and profit is permitted, neigh, encouraged

How many people out there have made massive amounts of money on their house or houses. And why shouldn't they? More power to them, and to those that havn't, that is a pity, but come on?

We are not living in a communist society where all are equal weather we like it or not. Everyone has the right to speculate, appreciate and recooperate.

If you feel so strongly, join the socialist party.

Keth.

You're right, we live in a free market, and right now, people who own houses are benefitting. But I'd be surprised if many people would be hollering about how wonderful a free market is if the number of buyers dried up into nothing. Remember, you can only cash in your chips if someone wants to buy them.
 
Keth, I don't know where to start man, that's alot of vitriol you've been throwing around.

If you think the typical property bear in Ireland some kind of student hippie type then you are falling into a stereotype yourself, that of someone who has something nice but is paranoid that 'the proles' are out to get them & take what they have.

Also, if you think the concern re:the property market is solely about house prices or affordability you are sorely mistaken. Some people like myself, who hope to further establish & expand businesses, see a massive opportunity going a begging at the moment.

Instead of a strong economy here we're building a paper tiger by fooling ourselves into thinking we're producing real things in our economy. We're not, we're playing around with WWII-level cheap monopoly money on credit and somehow convincing ourselves that the economy is driving forward.

It's not that "cheap houses" are good for the economy, it's that when people have a 'reasonable' amount of money left in their pockets after paying their mortgage - then there's a better chance of that person ploughing some of that cash into a new business, thus helping the economy in the long run. The guy who is commuting four hours to work to live in ballyno-where and struggling to make ends meet and is exhausted all the time is never going to establish anything.

The reason why property bears cant just 'pay up or shut up' is that alot of us see a direct correlation between an inflated asset bubble [if you are honest with yourself - it's inflated - no one in their right minds could value a house in a frankly dangerous area of dublin (we all know the areas I mean) at a quarter of a million euros, yet this happens) and a tanked economy.
 
keth said:
I guess by Trotski-ite I mean those who are almost 'unwilling' to take the chance that most other hard working people have. These same people are adamant about their stance almost believing that a low cost house is their right. Did we forget that we're living in a free market (almost) and that the persuit of dreams via money and profit is permitted, neigh, encouraged

How many people out there have made massive amounts of money on their house or houses. And why shouldn't they? More power to them, and to those that havn't, that is a pity, but come on?

We are not living in a communist society where all are equal weather we like it or not. Everyone has the right to speculate, appreciate and recooperate.

If you feel so strongly, join the socialist party.

Keth.

Wow - strong stuff!

I think you've got the wrong end of the stick here, certainly for my own position. I own property in Ireland and in the UK which are rented out but were bought a long time ago so that the income comfortably covers the costs. I also have investments in the form of equities sitting to draw on if I wish to buy a property in Ireland and have a large mortgage approved to do so. I don't begrudge anyone who has made money from property - I have done so myself handsomely from our UK property already and fair play to yourself and others who have done so too, possibly on a greater scale than myself.

I lived through a property crash in the UK and saw the before and after effects. My view is that Ireland is close to the tipping point of the property market so that there may (see Loki, I did not say will :D ) a correction and that would present more attractive buying opportunities in 1-3 years time. So I am renting in a very nice area, biding my time, trying to improve my cash position so that I am in the best possible situation. I am speculating, but from a different perspective from yourself

Some other observations on the fact that comments have been made that "I'll ride out any downturn" - while it is true that in the UK most people simply held tight and did not sell, there were forced sales in the form of repossessions across the market (FTB's, top-end of the market, BTL etc.), people died, got divorced, were made redundant, had more kids etc. etc. - point is - not everyone can stay in the same house for many years as their circumstances change and they have to move. Properties always come onto the market even when the market is weak due to these factors, and the market was further surpressed in London because people were terrified it would fall further.

In Ireland, the situation may be exacerbated by the fact that BTL seems to be higher than in the UK (therefore the economy is more sensitive to property income) and also a lot of the tax take is associated with housing (employment, stamp duty, VAT etc.). So any downturn would produce a multiplier effect in the economy which would in turn hit house prices hard. If you believe that, then wait and see when you can buy. If you don't, go ahead and buy if you think you're getting good value.

Or ask yourself this - if the price of houses in Ireland is very high by international standards AND the house you own is growing faster than your household income when interest rates are rising, does that not strike you as a bit unsustainable?

You pays your money, you takes your choice :)
 
soma said:
Keth, I don't know where to start man, that's alot of vitriol you've been throwing around.

If you think the typical property bear in Ireland some kind of student hippie type then you are falling into a stereotype yourself, that of someone who has something nice but is paranoid that 'the proles' are out to get them & take what they have.

Also, if you think the concern re:the property market is solely about house prices or affordability you are sorely mistaken. Some people like myself, who hope to further establish & expand businesses, see a massive opportunity going a begging at the moment.

Instead of a strong economy here we're building a paper tiger by fooling ourselves into thinking we're producing real things in our economy. We're not, we're playing around with WWII-level cheap monopoly money on credit and somehow convincing ourselves that the economy is driving forward.

It's not that "cheap houses" are good for the economy, it's that when people have a 'reasonable' amount of money left in their pockets after paying their mortgage - then there's a better chance of that person ploughing some of that cash into a new business, thus helping the economy in the long run. The guy who is commuting four hours to work to live in ballyno-where and struggling to make ends meet and is exhausted all the time is never going to establish anything.

The reason why property bears cant just 'pay up or shut up' is that alot of us see a direct correlation between an inflated asset bubble [if you are honest with yourself - it's inflated - no one in their right minds could value a house in a frankly dangerous area of dublin (we all know the areas I mean) at a quarter of a million euros, yet this happens) and a tanked economy.

I couldn't have said it better myself !
 


It's a [broken link removed] in one of the most desirable areas in Dublin, but still at [broken link removed] (plus another €0.34m for stamp duty alone!) at the end of the day it is still a just a 4-bed semi-d with a converted garage.



 
ivuernis said:


It's a [broken link removed] in one of the most desirable areas in Dublin, but still at [broken link removed] (plus another €0.34m for stamp duty alone!) at the end of the day it is still a just a 4-bed semi-d with a converted garage.




yeah thats mad. i cant see how that area can be that much better than similar areas close to the city ,its financial madness from an investment point of view,i hope the buyers get the extra few million they paid back in increased satisfaction/feelings of prestige! this purchase really epitomises the emotional over th rational,people obviously feel they will get a massively increased sense of worth and social standing by buying such properties,but eventually they will realise that prestige materialism etc are all fickle unimportant concepts in the greater scheme of things or maybe they wont and will find hapiness in the hands of consumerism!
 
Well, it's probably worth at least a million to have Patrick Gilbaud as a neighbour, right? :)

This was hyped up in the Indo and other places too. But what if Patrick decides to cash in and move on? :)
 
A little perspective; 12 bedroom mansion in Orange County New York.

Orange County New York, €4,500,000
Stately "Georgian" mansion perched on 3 acres with lake frontage to Tuxedo Lake. Incredible estate built in 1920 for John Harris of Smith, Barney, Harris Co. boasts all the original detail of the period. Beautiful moldings, 13 firep laces, grand scale rooms. Historic District, private gated community, 2,000 acres with 3 private lakes only 38 miles to NYC. Additional 3.1 lake front lot also available MLS # 386343.
</SPAN>




http://www.weichert.com/search/realestate/PropertyListing.aspx?P=5568666&countyid=34514
 
Duplex said:

Hey, Duplex, you know this board doesn't like international comparisons - Ireland is different, after all ;)

How about this six bed period house in the heart of Notting Hill in London for the same amount?

http://www.findaproperty.com/agent.aspx?agentid=1410&opt=prop&pid=008293&photo=2#photo
 
Throw my hat in here....

I've put my money where my mouth is and sold my two investment properties 2 & 4 months ago... after paying back mortgage and Cap Gains, I had doubled my initial investment in three years. Ok, so I possibly may lose out on further gains over the next couple of years, or I may not... I don't care. Fact is I'm done, I've made my money and now I'm investing elsewhere. There's no need to bring it right down to the wire.

And for the record.... I hope there isn't a downturn...
 
Laurie said:
Hey, Neffa, you know some people on this board can't do currency conversions!l ;)

Since when is €2,500,000 = £2,650,000?
If you'd clicked the other link you'd have noticed the property in fact sold for €3.75 million, well over the guide of €2.5 million.

So it's roughly bang on. I know which property i'd prefer :)
 
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