Future price of Irish properties

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the economy in the uk is still quite strong and there a large amount of first time buyers waiting to enter the market(first time buyers fell to a 30 year low in uk last year as they are priced out) so price falls may be cushioned by them .the average age of a FTB in uk is early 30's ,i'd say its a lot younger here .
 
keth said:
Everyone here is talking about the almost immediate future of the house prices/value etc. The larger future (10 years plus, not the next 2-5 years) will see house prices rise, even if they do stagnate, even dip in the near interim.

We may or may not be in the midst of speculative inflation, but real inflation will prevail as it always has and will ultimately raise the price of property over the longer term. Someone correct me, but inflation by it's very definition can only go up in the long term.

There are those that believe everyone will suddenly run screming and sell if the value of their house doesn't perform. Property for 99% of people are not shares in the market.

Personally, I think we are starting to suffer from a little paranoia given the interest rate rise.

Keth.

Sadly, and I don't mean to be personal, but it's usually the sad loser trotsky-ites who havn't a penny to buy a house who ring their hands at the thoughts of a market collapse, as if they'll have the rich pickings when the time comes for everyone else to sell.
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At little bit of sense at last (please don't flame me Loki, it's only an opinion)
 
keth said:
Everyone here is talking about the almost immediate future of the house prices/value etc. The larger future (10 years plus, not the next 2-5 years) will see house prices rise, even if they do stagnate, even dip in the near interim.
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I would be less optimisitic about the longer-term future (10+ years) than the near-term. We may ride it out for another while in the near-term but I think the big problems lie further down the line. We'll pay tomorrow for our profligacy today.


keth said:
Sadly, and I don't mean to be personal, but it's usually the sad loser trotsky-ites who havn't a penny to buy a house who ring their hands at the thoughts of a market collapse, as if they'll have the rich pickings when the time comes for everyone else to sell.
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Would you blame them in today's market?
 
Everyone here is talking about the almost immediate future of the house prices/value etc. The larger future (10 years plus, not the next 2-5 years) will see house prices rise, even if they do stagnate, even dip in the near interim.

We may or may not be in the midst of speculative inflation, but real inflation will prevail as it always has and will ultimately raise the price of property over the longer term. Someone correct me, but inflation by it's very definition can only go up in the long term.

There are those that believe everyone will suddenly run screming and sell if the value of their house doesn't perform. Property for 99% of people are not shares in the market.

Personally, I think we are starting to suffer from a little paranoia given the interest rate rise.

Keth.
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There is nothing inevitable about inflation although it is the more likely scenario

[broken link removed])

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/riley041504.html

That said, I tend to agree with you
 
keth said:
Sadly, and I don't mean to be personal, but it's usually the sad loser trotsky-ites who havn't a penny to buy a house who ring their hands at the thoughts of a market collapse, as if they'll have the rich pickings when the time comes for everyone else to sell.
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So now we can add "sad trotsky-ites who havent a penny" to the list of put downs to those who see lower house prices as a good thing. The "sad trotsky-ites", "begrudgers", the "doom-mongers" who want to see low cost housing, are feared by those who want to keep house prices high.

The 'sad trotsky-ites' are mainly our young people, who today are supposed to pay x3 the price of what a home cost not 9yrs ago.

Let me repeat lower house prices ARE A GOOD THING. Ask any 24yr old.

Fumble in the greasy til, indeed.
 
Why have houseprices fallen for nearly fifteen years in Germany and Japan. Why because of deflation, the Germans and Japanese are witnessing the impact of a new global economy where highly qualified workers in the world’s most populous nations get paid 10% of the going rate in the west. The Americans, Brits and Irish have decided to forgo future consumption for current(non productive)asset inflation, it’s a choice.

By the way I still house prices in Ireland rising by at least 20% this year so more economically beneficial inflation.
 
walk2dewater said:
Let me repeat lower house prices ARE A GOOD THING. Ask any 24yr old.

Fumble in the greasy til, indeed.
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And a 24year old looking to buy a house is so objective. It is quite apparent that what people want means nothing other than that. It doesn't make it good. Let me give an example more cheaper drugs ARE A GODD THING ask a 24 year old junkie.
A really lame argument
 
general consumer inflation is near inevitable and a little of this is good for and economy but for assets like houses theres no guarantee,house prices in germany japan etc are lower now than they have been on previous 2 decades.
i too would be more worried about house prices in 10+ years time as our economy is quite vunerable ,we import everything for consumption (cars clothes food etc) and produce little outside of the multinational sector and invest far too little in r&d.
when many of the multinationals leave for better value locations and the construction part of GDP slows or decreases and interest rates are much higher and graduate service jobs move to asia/eastern europe we're fecked! really though,whats gonna drive irish economy in 10+ years time? the construction sector and related mortgage/finance sector are driving a lot of growth, talk of a knowledge based economy is a pipe dream we are hoping for but the nordic countries have achieved.we lack industriousness and rely on foreign multinationals consumer spending and house building to power our economy,this is not sustainable and many informed economists are saying so. unemployment ,interest rates, and gdp growth can only get worse from now on and this will impact economy/ property market.

p.s on news today it said inflation rose to 3.3 percent in ireland,europe uk and america have inflation of 2% so we are becoming even less competitive.
 
I believe Ben Dunne made some comments on the whole subject today, I didn't hear him myself- did anyone catch it?
 
Might I add that I have no objection to the predatory nature of the banking and construction industry in Ireland. These sectors are seeking to maximise their returns, as they should; we live in a capitalist system which has proven to be the most efficient and beneficial method of employing both natural and human resources. What I object to is the presumption of a fairytale happy ending for Ireland given global and domestic circumstances. Please credit some people with a modicum of intelligence and accept that we understand how capitalism works.

Their are sheep to be sheared, so shear them, but don’t start on the bears.
 
Carpenter said:
I believe Ben Dunne made some comments on the whole subject today, I didn't hear him myself- did anyone catch it?
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No, but someone told me he was on the News-at-One on RTE. I guess you'll be able to hear it on the website once it's updated with today's show when it's over.

[broken link removed]
 
Loki said:
And a 24year old looking to buy a house is so objective. It is quite apparent that what people want means nothing other than that. It doesn't make it good. Let me give an example more cheaper drugs ARE A GODD THING ask a 24 year old junkie.
A really lame argument
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That's a really lame comparison Loki. Is a property-speculator with sufficient asset-backed liquidity who's pricing same 24-year old out of the market any more objective?

Affordable housing would benefit almost everyone unlike the current situation which is breaking the financial backs of a large proportion of the young workforce in this country.

 
bearishbull said:
general consumer inflation is near inevitable and a little of this is good for and economy but for assets like houses theres no guarantee,house prices in germany japan etc are lower now than they have been on previous 2 decades.
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I think the people in th former East Germany might disagree there. Isn't Japan recovering from a huge massive crash?
Both have had massive political turmoil I think it is very suspect using them as example.
 
Loki said:
I think the people in th former East Germany might disagree there. Isn't Japan recovering from a huge massive crash?
Both have had massive political turmoil I think it is very suspect using them as example.
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What huge turmoil did Japan suffer?
 
tiger said:
Found this short summary with the help of google.
http://www.stock-market-crash.net/nikkei.htm

Basically speculation on property & the stockmarket lead to a crash in 1991 which resulted in the Nikkei losing over 75% of its value and property values falling for 14 straight years
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So what you're suggesting is that speculation in property was one of the direct causes of the crash in Japan, not a result of said crash?
 
So does this mean people agree that using Germany and Japaneese prices to show prices stay down is a bad example.

ivuernis

The point I was making is peopledesires are only a sign of their desires not good or bad. You are dead right in saying an investor is equally useless to use just becasue of their desires. The points of fact are all that should be used. Speculation on these facts is fine as speculation.
 
Carpenter said:
I believe Ben Dunne made some comments on the whole subject today, I didn't hear him myself- did anyone catch it?
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Here's the link (requires Real Player)

[broken link removed]

It's at the end of the segment, he basically says current property prices are unsustainable and a lot of people don't think they could ever drop. He was talking in relation to people who lost money when the invested in some of Patrick Gallagher's failed ventures.

 
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