Future price of Irish properties

[beattie]

Irish people are opposed to high rise and appartment living as general view.

Do Irish people want to live in an area that might be high rise but near to a Luas/QBC/Metro (if it is ever built admittently) or do they want to commute from the likes of Gorey/Carlow/Athlone. I think the planners have realised the folly of their 'planning strategy' over the past decade and are now granting high rise developments (in Stillorgan/Sandyford anyway).

Also bear in mind that we are attracting 50k immigrants per year and as far as I can tell most of them come from countries where high rise doesn't generate tremors in people

 

[askalot]

For any of your vision to happen population needs to keep increasing and Irish mentatlity of home ownership needs to change. Dublin has to remain as the centre or Irish employment anything else that must happen for your vision? Your opinion of what has to happen is restricted to one vision of the future. Irish people are opposed to high rise and appartment living as general view.

Have you not previously posted numerous, oh so numerous, replies that detail why, in the future, houses will be split into multiple living spaces?

 

[bearishbull]

Proof? As I said property is not zoned by anybody so that is why I doubt the figure as it doesn't make sense.

Where have they knocked down

Again you can tell the furure how do you know what the planners will do.?
Currently Dublin has a height limit and that restricts supply. THe insdustrial sites need to be re-zoned from industrial to residential. The industrail sites I have seen changed are no higher than the original building in th sub-urbs


For any of your vision to happen population needs to keep increasing and Irish mentatlity of home ownership needs to change. Dublin has to remain as the centre or Irish employment anything else that must happen for your vision? Your opinion of what has to happen is restricted to one vision of the future. Irish people are opposed to high rise and appartment living as general view.

the attitude to apartment living is changing,we actually have a very low amount of aprtments in dublin approx 14% of dwellings in dublin are apartments. we have a population density of 1200 per square kilometre in greater dublin but in greater london its 4500 per square kilometre,we have to and are moving towards this higher density. the planners councills and governement have signalled intent to create high rise in dublin,eg the PD's wanna develop around the docks past IFSC and in port,sean dunne is developing jurys site for high rise/high density because of this move to higher density.the politicans know they have to build up in dublin and this is gonna happen over next decade.

 

[Calina]

I have a fair knowledge of city planning guides and EU regulations. I would love to see where and what you are talking about to see if it is even possible under current laws and regulations.

A couple of pages ago you had to be told that planning permission was required for the house splitting which you seem to be so sure will prevent housing price meltdown, so I have to say, I'm not convinced about your knowledge in the area of planning.

You also implied that to increase density, planning regulations might be, oh circumvented. I'm having some problems marrying that with your most recent posts.

Dublin is a mess. Splitting semiDs is not going to fix that mess. Building five and six storey apartment blocks would go a long way towards alleviating it. But it needs to be done in line with public transport and traffic planning.

Currently, there is a shocking disparity between average income and average house prices in Dublin. I don't believe this is sustainable. When the boiling point comes is, of course, currently a mystery to us all. But I will say this, whether it comes or not, infrastructural problems in Dublin will continue to exist and will continue to need addressed at some stage.

 

[Glenbhoy]

I look at this whole sorry mess that is a disaster waiting to happen and I ask myself - 'what can the government do now to avert disaster?' - I can't see any obvious solutions - can anyone else? What should they have done over the past 5/6 years that could have prevented us getting close to 'popping point' ie. when the bubble bursts!

 

[redo]

I look at this whole sorry mess that is a disaster waiting to happen and I ask myself - 'what can the government do now to avert disaster?' - I can't see any obvious solutions - can anyone else? What should they have done over the past 5/6 years that could have prevented us getting close to 'popping point' ie. when the bubble bursts!

Correct, threre is no win-win solution for the Government really. The report presented to the Dept of Environment last week suggested a tax on holiday and second homes which was good idea in theory but probably wouldn't get the Gov reelected.

 

[askalot]

I look at this whole sorry mess that is a disaster waiting to happen and I ask myself - 'what can the government do now to avert disaster?' - I can't see any obvious solutions - can anyone else? What should they have done over the past 5/6 years that could have prevented us getting close to 'popping point' ie. when the bubble bursts!

One of the prime factors in the house price bubble has been interest rates that are too low for our economy. When we handed over responsiblity for setting rates to the ECB we sealed our fate; our economy had not 'converged' with Germany's or France's so we were doomed to live with rates out of whack with the real world as lived in Ireland.

If we had kept rates around 5 - 6 percent over the past 8 years we would not be in this mess nor would it have stunted our growth.

 

[Loki]

Have you not previously posted numerous, oh so numerous, replies that detail why, in the future, houses will be split into multiple living spaces?

I stated nothing as FACT and WILL happen. I have only said splitting is a factor not considered.

the attitude to apartment living is changing,we actually have a very low amount of aprtments in dublin approx 14% of dwellings in dublin are apartments. we have a population density of 1200 per square kilometre in greater dublin but in greater london its 4500 per square kilometre,we have to and are moving towards this higher density. the planners councills and governement have signalled intent to create high rise in dublin,eg the PD's wanna develop around the docks past IFSC and in port,sean dunne is developing jurys site for high rise/high density because of this move to higher density.the politicans know they have to build up in dublin and this is gonna happen over next decade.

Again you avoid answering the quaestion asked. WHere and what is zoned? Where are they knocking down property that is getting planning for high rise bar maybe 3-4 developments? Not enough to make the whole city change a factor I agree but not a sudden sweeping change accorss the city. Most appartmnet living in DUblin is rented and has a transient population. Signal intent does not mena the planners are and will do things you stated as definte. WHat is the height of these high density buildings?

A couple of pages ago you had to be told that planning permission was required for the house splitting which you seem to be so sure will prevent housing price meltdown, so I have to say, I'm not convinced about your knowledge in the area of planning.

Look you need planing permission to put in a driveway or make it larger. Dublin city Council have never ever made somebody reverse it in a building estate. There are the rules and how the system works in Ireland. You know the rules I know the system. You want to think you know how it works good for you but what have you ever got built?

Currently, there is a shocking disparity between average income and average house prices in Dublin. I don't believe this is sustainable. When the boiling point comes is, of course, currently a mystery to us all. But I will say this, whether it comes or not, infrastructural problems in Dublin will continue to exist and will continue to need addressed at some stage.

As many people don't really understand the effect of averaging property prices in a market where the most expensive property in the country is located I think using those values is misleading. THe belief that people must own their houses is part of the problem and complaint about wages not matching.

THe problem I have with marrying views is one minute people are saying there will be a crash due to economic pressure world wide. THen they still think Dublin will be getting mass imigration (why are they still coming) people will still build property (for who) and people will change their mentality suddenly to live in appartment( yet everybody is commenting on how baddly built they are).

WE don't know what is going to happen so stop stating your views as fact and discuss the possible out comes and how they interact instead of stating one possibilty and refusing to listen to other possibilities

 

[Neffa]

Why then, did the prices not drop substantially in the UK over the last 18 months? There was no crash - just a stagnation which appears to be reversing itself. Similarly, the Netherlands had a house prices boom at the same time as us but they had a recession in 2002. Again, there was no drop in prices despite what many commentators saw as significant overvaluation. Are we going to see a similar defying of logic here?

Prices have dropped by 15-20% in parts of London and the SE - the asking prices have moved only a little but there is real haggling potential in the market for the first time in years. E.g. Friends tried to buy a 4-bed in Barnes, SW London - asking £980K - EA told them "off the record" that they'd sell for £900K and they eventually got it for £820K. Our house in London was valued twice in a 15 month period and fell about 15% during that time.

Also, the UK - in my opinion - had less distance to fall to achieve some kind of correction - the SE of England had already started to slow down in price growth in 2004 and this has continued into 05-06.

The UK also has (it seems to me) a relatively lower instance of "hold on to your first place, let it out and buy your next place" relative to Ireland.

 

[gearoidmm]

WE don't know what is going to happen so stop stating your views as fact and discuss the possible out comes and how they interact instead of stating one possibilty and refusing to listen to other possibilities

....Unbelievable arrogance without any facts stated.

This thread is all about opinion and speculation. Nobody is claiming to predict the future but they are trying to make a judgement on what they think might happen based on the economic and social climate. There are some who believe prices will fall, some who believe stagnation is possible and others who think they will continue to rise. Your constant heckling and berating of other posters and their opinions is adding nothing to the debate. There are many commentators in the media and real estate industry who belive that the doomsayers anre being overly pessimistic and that this boom will roll on for years. They offer cogent analysis as to why they think this will happen, whether one agree with them or not.

Your idea of debate seems to revolve around calling everyone else fabricators and fools and it makes it very hard not to get caught up in a slinging match. I appreciate hearing the opposing view and I agree with some of you points but it would be nice if it you could answer some of the questions others have posed (Duplex for example) rather than resorting to the catch all 'no-one is stating facts'.

 

[gearoidmm]

Prices have dropped by 15-20% in parts of London and the SE - the asking prices have moved only a little but there is real haggling potential in the market for the first time in years. E.g. Friends tried to buy a 4-bed in Barnes, SW London - asking £980K - EA told them "off the record" that they'd sell for £900K and they eventually got it for £820K. Our house in London was valued twice in a 15 month period and fell about 15% during that time.

This has not been reflected in the official figures (including asking prices and prices on completion). In fact, the last 2 months there has been a significant rise in prices in the SE. There is no evidence of panic selling and in fact there are a lot fewer houses on sale in the London area than there were a year ago as people wait for prices to rise again.

I wonder is this stagnation a possible model for what will happen here rather than a crash?

 

[kane3000]

Why oh why would anyone in their right mind buy a 4-bed semi for €3m ??

You could have a castle in the countryside with enough left over for a helicopter to fly you to the city - what is going on???

-----Irish Independent 16-03-06----------------------------------------

€3m price tag on 4-bed city semi a sign of boom times

WITH a price tag that is expected to jump above €3m at auction today this modest family semi detached home (left) is likely to prove beyond the grasp of most young newly-weds.
But given that near neighbours include top chef Patrick Guilbaud and the Argentinian Embassy, auctioneers Lisney are expecting no shortage of interest in this Dublin property.
Number 13 Ailesbury Drive, Donnybrook was built in the early 1950s and when the bidding starts today the advised minimum value for the four bedroom, 2020 sq feet house, with a 92-foot rear garden, will be €2.5m.
But such prices are intended merely to get matters off the ground and industry observers expect it to eventually sell for a considerably higher price.
It is all far removed from the property market of the mid 1990s. In 1995 the highest price reached at auction in the first half of that year was less than £700,000 for a six-bedroom, semi-detached, three-storey house at 51 Ailesbury Road.
Anyone doubting how zany property prices have become should read the latest auction results.
Just last week another semi-detached home in nearby Sandymount had an advised minimum guide of €5m. But at auction the Edwardian home in Park Avenue sold for €9m, a far cry from the £54,695 paid for it in 1974.
That property was not unique as another home in Dublin also sold last week for over €5m. A four-bedroom detached house in Glenageary sold for €6.4m

 

[Howitzer]

This has not been reflected in the official figures (including asking prices and prices on completion). In fact, the last 2 months there has been a significant rise in prices in the SE. There is no evidence of panic selling and in fact there are a lot fewer houses on sale in the London area than there were a year ago as people wait for prices to rise again.

I wonder is this stagnation a possible model for what will happen here rather than a crash?

Interest rates. Interest rates. Interest rates.

At the first sign of weekness in the UK housing market, which was feeding into consumer spending, or the lack thereof, interest rates were descreased. The Irish house boom 'appears' to be reaching a peak at a time when the ECB has just started a cycle of raising rates, and won't stop cos a few investors/ftb's in Ireland are losing their shirts.

 

[gearoidmm]

Interest rates. Interest rates. Interest rates.

At the first sign of weekness in the UK housing market, which was feeding into consumer spending, or the lack thereof, interest rates were descreased. The Irish house boom 'appears' to be reaching a peak at a time when the ECB has just started a cycle of raising rates, and won't stop cos a few investors/ftb's in Ireland are losing their shirts.

They were decreased, yes, but only by 0.25% and they were still 2% higher than they were a couple of years earlier. 0.25% didn't really put all that much more money into people's pockets although I suppose it did ease people's fears about continuing rate rises. Commentators in the UK had (like the irish equivalents) been talking about the crash that would come when interest rates rose and FTBs were priced out of the market. FTBs are to a great extent now out and interest rates are higher but no crash.

There doesn't seem to be all that much analysis out there to explain this.

 

[walk2dewater]

This thread is all about opinion and speculation. Nobody is claiming to predict the future but they are trying to make a judgement on what they think might happen based on the economic and social climate. There are somewho belive prices will fall, some who believe stagnation is possible and others who think they will continue to rise. Your constant heckling and berating of other posters and their opinions is adding nothing to the debate. There are many commentators in the media and real estate industry who belive that the doomsayers anre being overly pessimistic and that this boom will roll on for years. They offer cogent analysis as to why they think this will happen, whether one agree with them or not.

Your idea of debate seems to revolve around calling everyone else fabricators and fools and it makes it very hard not to get caught up in a slinging match. I appreciate hearing the opposing view and I agree with some of you points but it would be nice if it you could answer some of the questions others have posed (Duplex for example) rather than resorting to the catch all 'no-one is stating facts'.

I returned to Ireland over 2 yrs ago. When I arrived I decided not to buy a property and rent instead. The economics simply didnt 'add up' in my view. When asked "why dont I buy?", I presented my case for this, and I was almost universally disagreed with. When I defended my view, and presented my analysis of the situation, I was branded a "doom-monger", a "begrudger", a "pessimist" and found myself on the receiving end of a lot of venom. I quickly learned to keep my mouth shut. It seems to me that there is an profound vested interest on the part of many people to keep prices rising, and any other perspective is shouted down with a lot of anger. This is a nasty and insidious aspect of life here, one that has been exposed by this speculative frenzy in property.

WTTW

 

[Loki]

This thread is all about opinion and speculation. Nobody is claiming to predict the future but they are trying to make a judgement on what they think might happen based on the economic and social climate. etc...

THey aren't speculating they are stating that things will happen with certainty. My point is people are not speculating they are stating it as fact.

Your idea of debate seems to revolve around calling everyone else fabricators and fools and it makes it very hard not to get caught up in a slinging match. I appreciate hearing the opposing view and I agree with some of you points but it would be nice if it you could answer some of the questions others have posed (Duplex for example) rather than resorting to the catch all 'no-one is stating facts'.

I ask for people to provide details of FACTS they state. THey are calling me a fool. Asking me questions I have not answered? I think you will find there are a ton of questions I have asked that people stating facts never answered. THe whole use of the term property bubble is a classic of people not knowing the difference between fact and speculation.

 

[Howitzer]

There doesn't seem to be all that much analysis out there to explain this.

Good vibes?

I think that the amount of new builds in the UK last year was only about 150,000. About twice the number here for a population 12 times the size. I don't have the source to hand but I'm sure I can dig it out.

And interest rates in the UK didn't actually increase by much (1.25% bottomed out at 3.5% July 03, rose to 4.75% Sept 04 according to a wee graph on bbc.co.uk). Also the economy there is still very strong and wasn't affected by the slowdown as construction didn't account for much of the economies total output (unlike here).

 

[Neffa]

They were decreased, yes, but only by 0.25% and they were still 2% higher than they were a couple of years earlier. 0.25% didn't really put all that much more money into people's pockets although I suppose it did ease people's fears about continuing rate rises. Commentators in the UK had (like the irish equivalents) been talking about the crash that would come when interest rates rose and FTBs were priced out of the market. FTBs are to a great extent now out and interest rates are higher but no crash.

There doesn't seem to be all that much analysis out there to explain this.

I'm not sure the interest rate changes in the UK really affected things that much. I really think a lot of the gentle slowdown rather than crash in the UK is down to the affordability factor. Earlier on in this thread I showed there is a marked difference between the ratio of house prices/earnings in the UK and in Ireland. So when the "correction" started to happen in the UK, there is less inflation in the market and less pressure for prices to fall. Remember, you can buy a nice 4-bed period house in London with a decent garden, near transport links and decent schools for about £650K (€1m). It is much higher than that in Dublin.

And in response to Loki's point earlier, I do think that the 50K annual immigrants forever stuff you hear in the press will eventually start to taper off because the cost of living will become too high and people will go to the next hot spot instead. I work in a large US multinational here and we are bringing quite a few staff at all levels from abroad into Ireland and the huge cost of property is proving quite an issue in getting people here who plan to settle as opposed to rent for a few years and leave again.

 

[gearoidmm]

Good vibes?

And interest rates in the UK didn't actually increase by much (1.25% bottomed out at 3.5% July 03, rose to 4.75% Sept 04 according to a wee graph on bbc.co.uk.

Sorry, should have checked my figures more carefully. I thought they had gone lower. I stand corrected.

 

[Howitzer]

So a jump of 50% in rates (3.5 - 4.75) stopped the market.

The equivelent here would be to bring rates to 3% which is forecast for this year, possibly 3.5%. I'm gonna wait till May and see what the ECB says then, if rates go up then, well, goodnight.