Well, everyone I know got a census form and we all filled them out. If I apply the same level of proof to my experience as you do to yours, I can only assume that in fact, the CSO does know what it's doing.
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Well, everyone I know got a census form and we all filled them out. If I apply the same level of proof to my experience as you do to yours, I can only assume that in fact, the CSO does know what it's doing.
There will always be demand for houses in Dublin - that's undeniable. But will there be enough demand to sustain the double-digit annual growth we've seen for the past decade?
Property as an investment currently makes no sense - the rental yields are not there. Fact. Therefore any investors coming into the market now are looking for Capital Appreciation.
Even assuming the best-case scenario being painted by the VIs (3-5% growth, soft landing etc etc) the Cap Appreciation return doesn't even beat available Deposit Accounts. Why bother subsidising your tenant when you can put the money to better use in a risk-free deposit a/c @ 5%?
So the only rational reason for investing now is if you expect the party to continue. It would appear from the increased inventories (and corresponding rising rents/queues for flats) that a lot of these investors think the party is over.
Property as an investment currently makes no sense - the rental yields are not there. Fact. Therefore any investors coming into the market now are looking for Capital Appreciation.
Even assuming the best-case scenario being painted by the VIs (3-5% growth, soft landing etc etc) the Cap Appreciation return doesn't even beat available Deposit Accounts. Why bother subsidising your tenant when you can put the money to better use in a risk-free deposit a/c @ 5%?
So the only rational reason for investing now is if you expect the party to continue. It would appear from the increased inventories (and corresponding rising rents/queues for flats) that a lot of these investors think the party is over.
Andy is partaking in the debate.
Hmmm and Co, please desist from name calling and accusations that posters are trolls.
G
Guest111
Guest
I wasn't calling people here "self-styled experts" by the way...none of us know what's really going to happen. You can only look at the evidence, look at your circumstances and make a call. Mine is don't sell and if the right place comes along go ahead and buy it
That's the thing about facts & statistics - you can always pick a set or a time range to suit your argument.
G
Guest111
Guest
I think we'd all agree there's no chance of continued double digit growth...but stagnation or small growth in preferable locations gets my Taurian vote!
M
maxlovecok
Guest
It's definitely peaked. I'm here in the office and there's nothing happening. It's investors, people trading up, people emigrating. The panic hasn't set in yet but there's definitley an urgency in the market.
Don't send Henry down or my cover will be blown.
G
Guest111
Guest
Well then if my CSO experience was a joke,and yours was perfect then the reality is somewhere in the middle...i.e. still terrible
howstrange
Registered User
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http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=9&si=1636317&issue_id=14226
"Following inquiries among neighbours, postmen and women and apartment block management companies, the vast majority of those dwellings - some 275,000 - were identified as being vacant. [FONT=Verdana, Arial] In a further 30,000 cases, there was nobody at home when census officials called on various occasions."
Here the difference is specified between the individual not been at home and nobody actually living there! [/FONT]
Where is your office?
I'd still like to know there thw 225,000 empty properties are - I've no doubt they're there but I suspect they aren't the best located ones!
The old adage of location, location, location will continue to apply even in a crash.
I could envisage a soft landing in average middle-class city suburbs and major towns being balanced by an armageddon in commuter belt towns that are lacking in public transport & services.
G
Guest111
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Sorry, I meant if you have a second property don't dump it.
And if you see another suitable one, go for it
And if you see another suitable one, go for it
G
Guest111
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I think this 225,000 figure is dodgy to say the least...I've given my own personal examples.
What about those who think Census=Revenue and give it a wide berth.
They're out there, Bertie had to promise the info wouldn't be used against people.
What about those who think Census=Revenue and give it a wide berth.
They're out there, Bertie had to promise the info wouldn't be used against people.
M
MadPad
Guest
Put it a little closer to perfect... I was out of the country before the census... guy dropped the form in on the morning and remarked that he had called 4 times, knew the house wasnt empty as he had spoken to the neighbours... He called again at least twice to pick it up as i was away again....
but then I'm in on the northside, it was probably a different experience in the shantytowns of Dublin 4 or 6
Public sentiment can turn quickly. For instance, last year Florida was all the rage this year its soooo 2005. But Florida hasn't changed, mortgage rates are still quite low, in fact prices are lower making it an even more attractive location. So where have the heaving throngs gone?
howstrange
Registered User
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Where are you getting 225000 from?? It says 275000 on the article. Also I already mentioned the distinction between being vacant and nobody at home.
. Whats your reasons for saying the figures are dodgy?? And dont just scream stuff off the top of your head, maybe come up with detailed explanations for once!!If people are afraid of Revenue, my assumption is that they have reason to fear Revenue. If, however, they are up to date on their tax liabilities, then I don't understand why they would give it a wide berth.
Information derived from the Census is used for planning purposes into the future. If, in fact, you are correct, and people deliberately avoid correctly filling out the census form, it is probably no wonder that 1) the road network is inadequate 2) the public transport network is inadequate 3) the provision of schools places is inadequate and 4) the provision of medical services is inadequate.
People who have contributed to this by refusing to fill in the census form are in fact, working against themselves. Arguments such as yours above are what would make me feel a bit more enthusiastic about a little more bureaucracy in terms of registering where people are living on a local authority basis such as they do in most European countries apart from the UK. We might then have a better chance of adequate planning into the future and may perhaps avoid a future housing bubble.
In short, we are damaged by people refusing to fill out the census and for that they should be censured. Excuses such as being afraid of the revenue should be followed up by the revenue checking out who owns every single house from which a census form was not returned. People who do not pay their taxes should be pariahs.
In the meantime, of course, that changes little. On average, for the past five years, property has been seen as a get rich quickly scheme. Now there are some doubts as to its efficacy. One has to wonder why.
I'm interested to see, additionally that you don't apply the same level of concern about the three to four month old mortgage figures from PTSB/ESRI (which are part VI) as you do to the CSO which does not have a vested interest in the census figures. It just counts.
You suggest to buy more property in the current market. Would you wait six months if you thought prices might be cheaper before deciding to buy?
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