Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

[MadPad]

I'm a bit confused by this - there has been no indicators that the supply of new housing is reducing, so where does this fit in?

Prior to the dot com boom collapsing, there were leading indicators like reduced movement of freight (online commerce hadnt caught on near enough to justify the valuations, and was even slowing)
This is a leading indicator that the developers are slowing construction, as they need to buy these before building!

i.e. new developments that were being planned must be being postponed....presumably because they cant sell what they already have built and cant afford to pay to build another set or they dont see themselves being able to sell if they build in the near future...

The only other conclusion is cheaper imports, and that wasn't even hinted at in the article.

 

[JayDub]

There will never be enough houses in Dublin itself so demand will always be there.

Ireland has a huge non-national population, made up mostly of single male eastern euopean construction works. If construction slows down, where do you see these guys looking for work, most of those I have come across don't speak English. Thats a lot of vacated properties.

 

[CelloPoint]

Salaries and interest rates are the only big factors.

Market prices are not a big factor?

There will never be enough houses in Dublin itself so demand will always be there.

Is that a fact?

even an ECB base rate of 5% is not doomsday...the market will just slow in accordance with each increase. It's not they're 3.25% today and 5 tomorrow (like the bad old days)

Mmm. Well let's say you got your mortgage at 2.75% one year, and three years later rates are at 5% - what, a 90% increase in interest repayments? Let's bear in mind that 3 years is a very short time in terms of a 35/40 year mortgage... And with the ECB talking about "normalising" interest rates, we have to say that 2.75% rates were "abnormal". So mortgagees are just going to have to tighten their belts.

 

[Guest111]

OK, I don't believe there will be a crash because...

1) Interest rates will not go higher than 5%...out of our control and just not pallatable in Germany.
2) There is not an over-supply housing...Supply is only meeting demand now.
3) Pension legislation is being further liberalised...it's getting easier for people to buy investment property tax-free. This is and will further fuel demand.
4) Salaries are not under attack, if anything they are rising. They can sustain debt at its present level and have in the main been stress tested anyway.
5) As I've said before there winever be enough property in Dublin...demand will always be there. And when I say Dublin I mean say Dalkey to Rathfarnham to Clondalkin to Malahide...not beyond.
6) And despite what you may think, most people are taking a long term view anyway. The quick buck merchants are a tiny minority.

 

[conor_mc]

Salaries and interest rates are the only big factors. There will never be enough houses in Dublin itself so demand will always be there.
even an ECB base rate of 5% is not doomsday...the market will just slow in accordance with each increase. It's not they're 3.25% today and 5 tomorrow (like the bad old days)

Rubbish - you derided our anecdotes and personal opinions, yet you haven't provided one single iota of evidence to support a soft landing into the future.

The only hard statistical evidence I've seen you use is the ESRI figures which merely tell us that a crash hasn't happened yet. Nothing you've mentioned supports your argument that a soft landing is almost a certainty.

 

[Duplex]

Salaries and interest rates are the only big factors. There will never be enough houses in Dublin itself so demand will always be there.
even an ECB base rate of 5% is not doomsday...the market will just slow in accordance with each increase. It's not they're 3.25% today and 5 tomorrow (like the bad old days)

Similar arguments were made by bankers and realtors in Florida twelve months ago. They were wrong.

 

[Guest111]

They are all our opinions and conjecture.
All I'm saying is the most up to date data we have doesn't support your view.
And a forum like this with self styled experts advising people to hold off buying property can help bring about the Doomsday so many people obviously crave.

 

[whizzbang]

2) There is not an over-supply housing...Supply is only meeting demand now.

do we have any details on supply? How much is FTB? How much is trader uppers and how much is investors? FTP and trader uppers will always be with us to some degree, but investor demand is the risk, that could literally dissappear overnight. If it did dissappear then supply would be well over demand I believe.

 

[Guest111]

The continued liberalisation of pensions will stoke this up I believe

And our stream of immigrants coming from a rental culture will live in them...

 

[Remix]

There will always be demand for houses in Dublin - yes but the question is will that demand be of sufficient speculative fervor to keep prices at
current levels. Personally I doubt it very much.

Even after the technology bubble burst, there was still some demand for technology shares. But it was nothing like the heady days leading up
to the crash.

 

[hmmm]

I think Andy is just trolling the bears...

 

[conor_mc]

OK, I don't believe there will be a crash because...

1) Interest rates will not go higher than 5%...out of our control and just not pallatable in Germany.

Why not? Germans are notorious savers, not borrowers. As long as their economy grows and remains strong, they'll tolerate much higher interest rates if it maintains "price stability". Granted, historically German rates have hovered around the 4-5% range.

2) There is not an over-supply housing...Supply is only meeting demand now.

Then why the 225,000 vacant houses?

3) Pension legislation is being further liberalised...it's getting easier for people to buy investment property tax-free. This is and will further fuel demand.

Pure speculation on your part. Just like any other fad, property will have its moment in the limelight.

4) Salaries are not under attack, if anything they are rising. They can sustain debt at its present level and have in the main been stress tested anyway.

Mortgage debt is stress-tested. Credit cards, personal loans, CU loans aren't. We're rapidly sliding down OECD competitiveness tables, so salaries are coming under attack.

5) As I've said before there winever be enough property in Dublin...demand will always be there. And when I say Dublin I mean say Dalkey to Rathfarnham to Clondalkin to Malahide...not beyond.

When will you get this, not everybody wants to live in Dublin. I'd guess that most people value proximity to family and friends more than a trophy address!

6) And despite what you may think, most people are taking a long term view anyway. The quick buck merchants are a tiny minority.

Really? Then the current build-up in inventory couldn't be the thousands of "quick-buck merchants" trying to lock in their profits. IT must be the loonies that are willing to move "in the mouth of Christmas" - but who'd do that, eh?

 

[whathome]

They are all our opinions and conjecture

And the award for "Best Bull" on the housing sentiment thread for 2006 goes to......

Andy Doof!

Even though I disagree with just about every point that you have tried to put forward here, at least you're making the effort
Verging on trolling but better than nothing!

 

[room305]

And a forum like this with self styled experts advising people to hold off buying property can help bring about the Doomsday so many people obviously crave.

Things must be pretty precarious in the housing market if a few bears on an Internet forum can cause the market to crash.

Historically bubbles only end one way.

 

[Duplex]

Andy Doof OK, I don't believe there will be a crash because...

1) Interest rates will not go higher than 5%...out of our control and just not pallatable in Germany. Interest rates are not fixed by reference to palatability.

2) There is not an over-supply housing...Supply is only meeting demand now. 15% of the housing stock is empty, the supply of homes for sale is rising, investors made up 30-40% of the market until recently this 'investment' demand was driven by prospects of capital growth.

3) Pension legislation is being further liberalised...it's getting easier for people to buy investment property tax-free. This is and will further fuel demand. Pension investors are conservative

4) Salaries are not under attack, if anything they are rising. They can sustain debt at its present level and have in the main been stress tested anyway. Salaries are not rising in the productive sector of the economy.

5) As I've said before there winever be enough property in Dublin...demand will always be there. And when I say Dublin I mean say Dalkey to Rathfarnham to Clondalkin to Malahide...not beyond.
Who knows? ( where did you get this information)

6) And despite what you may think, most people are taking a long term view anyway. The quick buck merchants are a tiny minority. (Source?)

 

[nacho_libre]

OK, I don't believe there will be a crash because...

1) Interest rates will not go higher than 5%...out of our control and just not pallatable in Germany.
2) There is not an over-supply housing...Supply is only meeting demand now.
3) Pension legislation is being further liberalised...it's getting easier for people to buy investment property tax-free. This is and will further fuel demand.
4) Salaries are not under attack, if anything they are rising. They can sustain debt at its present level and have in the main been stress tested anyway.
5) As I've said before there winever be enough property in Dublin...demand will always be there. And when I say Dublin I mean say Dalkey to Rathfarnham to Clondalkin to Malahide...not beyond.
6) And despite what you may think, most people are taking a long term view anyway. The quick buck merchants are a tiny minority.

1) Are you Nostradamous?....5% is very possible. We're talking 35 years here remember.

2) Supply is only meeting demand now, but as we speak there are 10's of thousands of units being worked on for completion around the country.

3) Investment?? I'm sure even you will agree, the time for investment in property
is not now, or the forseeable future.

4) Salaries in the private sector are barely keeping up with inflation. Not even in
some cases.

5) The price of property is already taking a hit in Dublin.

6) Agreed....most people are taking the long term view so why would they choose
to buy a property now?

 

[Afuera]

OK, I don't believe there will be a crash because...

1) Interest rates will not go higher than 5%...out of our control and just not pallatable in Germany.

Plenty of retirees in Germany would disagree with you on this one!

2) There is not an over-supply housing...Supply is only meeting demand now.

Are we not forgetting about the recent census?

3) Pension legislation is being further liberalised...it's getting easier for people to buy investment property tax-free. This is and will further fuel demand.

The market for property investments can't exceed the size of the market for rentals. Further liberalisation of pensions to allow these types of investments can hardly be seen as a good thing since we already have oversupply. Since you're an investor yourself, I find it strange that you'd think that this is a good thing for the market!

4) Salaries are not under attack, if anything they are rising. They can sustain debt at its present level and have in the main been stress tested anyway.

What world are you living in? You don't need to go too far to find people that have been through periods of pay freezes or are actually getting paid less that they were 5 years ago.

5) As I've said before there winever be enough property in Dublin...demand will always be there. And when I say Dublin I mean say Dalkey to Rathfarnham to Clondalkin to Malahide...not beyond.

There's an awful lot of transcient workers in Ireland right now. Where do you reckon they'll go when Germany starts to boom again?

6) And despite what you may think, most people are taking a long term view anyway. The quick buck merchants are a tiny minority.

The long term trend has actually shown that property barely beats inflation. The last 10 years or so has been the exception.

 

[Calina]

OK, I don't believe there will be a crash because...

1) Interest rates will not go higher than 5%...out of our control and just not pallatable in Germany.
2) There is not an over-supply housing...Supply is only meeting demand now.
3) Pension legislation is being further liberalised...it's getting easier for people to buy investment property tax-free. This is and will further fuel demand.
4) Salaries are not under attack, if anything they are rising. They can sustain debt at its present level and have in the main been stress tested anyway.
5) As I've said before there winever be enough property in Dublin...demand will always be there. And when I say Dublin I mean say Dalkey to Rathfarnham to Clondalkin to Malahide...not beyond.
6) And despite what you may think, most people are taking a long term view anyway. The quick buck merchants are a tiny minority.

Interest rates higher than 5% are quite palatable to countries which are not heavily endebted. Such countries include Germany.

There is a 15% vacancy rate in the country which suggests that at the very least, supply is more than adequate for housing needs, if not for speculation needs.

Liberalisation in pensions relates mainly to investment products, not property AFAIK at the moment.

Salaries are rising below the rate of inflation which means they are falling in real terms unless you are a) getting promoted which can't happen for anyone b) working in the public service which isn't the case for everyone.

There is plenty of property in Dublin. The problem with much of it is that it has been designed with a quick buck in mind rather than the utilitarian nature of housing. Bricks to make money rather than to live in in other words. That being said, there is plenty of vacancy in Dublin as well so I'd hold on the "lack of property in Dublin" front.

In other words, I don't agree with anything you've said. As for the quick buck merchants, an awful lot of the houses that I'm looking at lately have been built within the last three years - that doesn't sound very long term to me, if you don't mind.

 

[Sarsfield]

Then why the 225,000 vacant houses?

Any idea as to the distribution of these properties? Are they evenly spread across the country or are they comprised exclusively of holiday homes in Leitrim & West Clare?

 

[Guest111]

I'm reeling after that...
Remember even the old drunk holding the "End is Nigh" sign will be right some day.
And please don't quote the census...what a complete joke that was!
Again, I know it's anecdotal but in my circle I could name a lot of people not included at all