Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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I'd buy now...but's that's because I think there's no crash coming.
You gotta make your own call based on your own circumstances.
I think when it's your home the criteria you use are different. Personally, I'd be more cautious with investments but with my own home what I want is what I want-sod the expense!
 
Maine said:
Even trader uppers in recent years are still getting hammered in as the above has been happening. Hence do not fear a crash.
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This only holds if the effects of the crash are limited solely to the housing market. Because of the rush to equity release in recent years, and much of our consumer confidence being underpinned by relatively easy and inexpensive debt, this is not a given. As a result, while I would assume that a crash would directly benefit quite a few people in terms of making house purchases affordable again, the problem - and elephant in the corner - relates to how the wider economy would be affected. I can't really foretell that with any accuracy. My position has always been that we would be better served by a correction sooner rather than later because the bigger the bang, the bigger the collateral damage. However, for now, I am not so confident that the wider economy will escape unscathed. I work in the services sector so I am somewhat nervous about the impact on a fall off in discretionary spending.

That being said, it is less likely to have a long drawn impact on the future of the country than continued untramelled and irrational growth in the property market. See a crash as the lesser of two evils, although not without its costs. If nothing else, it'll be impossible to listen to talk radio in this country as people whinge that "property shouldn't go down".
 
I wasn't advocating non-compliance with the census or the Revenue! I'd love to see registers and regulation for all those areas.
I have a firm belief that the census was flawed, that the information specifically relating to vacant properties has no relation to a debate about the future of the housing market. Frankly, I'm p..sed off that I've given examples where 80% of my immediate family were not included, where 4 properties aren't even on the radar and still people say "oh, you're just talking generalaties"!
 
Calina said:
That being said, it is less likely to have a long drawn impact on the future of the country than continued untramelled and irrational growth in the property market. See a crash as the lesser of two evils, although not without its costs. If nothing else, it'll be impossible to listen to talk radio in this country as people whinge that "property shouldn't go down".
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This is why momentum is everything. If it sustains enough to cause 20% drops it'll go much further. This thead has been way ahead of the mass media for 3 months now, but now it's in the mass media the predictions of what'll happen next have kinda dried up. I reckon we'll see major responses from the VI's in terms of supply and pushing the credit envelope out even further to a truly reckless stage, before a crash can be called.
 
I'd suggest that buying and selling property is and will become like most "businesses" as they evolve.
Witness the last few years...the definition of a no-brainer. Buy anywhere, it'll go up.
Now, much as the business world, retail trade or whatever has tightened up you have to be good to survive.
The This post will be deleted if not edited to remove bad language may fall out of the 1 bed in Balbriggan you bought off the plans. But the guy earlier who's thought through his Carrickmines purchase should be fine.
Again I'll say I don't believe we'll see an overall "crash".
 
Andy Doof said:
I wasn't advocating non-compliance with the census or the Revenue! I'd love to see registers and regulation for all those areas.
I have a firm belief that the census was flawed, that the information specifically relating to vacant properties has no relation to a debate about the future of the housing market. Frankly, I'm p..sed off that I've given examples where 80% of my immediate family were not included, where 4 properties aren't even on the radar and still people say "oh, you're just talking generalaties"!
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The problem is that the CSO provides figures regarding vacancies and we know who they are, whereas from you the figures are only anecdotal. In terms of value, I'd choose the CSO over you ever single day and that's before we come to the fact that at least two other contributors including myself have pointed out that our experience contrasts greatly to yours. As a result, I'm unwilling to take your belief that the census was so totally flawed as an article of faith.

That does not, however, change the fact that flawed or not, the results from the census are expected to be the basis for planning going forward. Non-completion of the census will almost definitely have a negative impact on those who did not complete, along with those who did provided you believe that this is a widespread problem. Given the modus operandi of the census collectors, I have serious doubts that in fact, it is that flawed. It cannot possibly be perfect, but given a line between being a mess and being perfect, I would say that I believe it was closer to perfect than being totally off the wall.

In any case, even if the figure of 275K is overstated, it is still fair to say that even if it is out by 10 or 15 per cent, it is still a shocking quantity of accommodation not accounted for.

It does, to my mind, indicate that the current party of property investment being a win-all situation for some sections of society while other sections of society are effectively locked out buying property near where they work cannot possibly continue. It is mathematically impossible for everyone to own two properties and make money on it. Only some people can win, only some people have, and unfortunately, people are going to lose.

Some people - not necessarily you - seem to take it as an article of faith that once property goes up, it cannot possibly go down at all. Unfortunately, nobody has been able to provide any rational reasons as to why that might be. The problem is affordability and it's running out, along with its friend easy credit.
 
Extract from article in todays Irish times. Property editor calls it as it is. Also in todays property section the managing director of sherry fitzgerald says "Don't Panic, Don't Panic" in a large article.

MarketAnalysis: Interest rate rises, uncertainty over stamp duty and buoyant supply have combined to create a pronounced slowdown in the market, writes Orna Mulcahy, Property Editor
The Dublin housing market has had a phenomenal 10-year run but, inevitably, the party had to end.
That's what's happening now, as house prices have stopped rising and, in some cases, are falling back to their level of 12 months ago, wiping out the gains made early this year

The main estate agents in the Dublin housing market had been expecting the slowdown since earlier in year when, after a bumper spring season, the market seemed to run out of steam, leaving a large stock of property unsold.
However, it wasn't until a greater than expected supply hit the market in September - coinciding with a succession of interest rate hikes - that the public realised that the market was in trouble.

The new homes sector, which has been even more vibrant in recent years - and probably the fastest growing in Europe - is also showing signs of fatigue with supply this year expected to hit an all time high of 93,000 units (about 12,000 more than last year).
However, new homes agents used to selling out over a weekend are now having to send their staff back week-after-week to wrap up their sales campaigns.
Though estate agents may not want to admit a correction is taking place in terms of prices, homeowners who believed that their property could earn them a fortune have had to think again.

By any European standards, house prices in Dublin are still at a formidable level, having outstripped salary increases many times over. That will have to change. Economic forecasters are talking about growth rates of 3-5 per cent in 2007, but even these modest predictions may be on the optimistic side, particuarly in the middle section of the market.
A lot now depends on the budget and business could be brisk in December, once Minister Cowen has decided what concessions, if any, he's prepared to make to housebuyers

[broken link removed]
full article
 
maxlovecok said:
You're right. It will start with estate agents, then the mortgage people, the banks, the builders, their suppliers and so on.
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I assumed it would start with the builders, then their suppliers, the estate agents then the mortgage people and finally the banks. Please explain your chain of lay-offs.
 
Re: Could it happen here................??

Stags Head said:
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Yes, estate agents of Ireland please note - in the US they managed to get sales rebounding (think of all those commisions) by slashing house prices at the fastest rate in 35 years. Get busy !
 
Essentially, you're calling me a liar.
You're ignoring the fact that people can own 2 properties while there are sufficient tenants. No one is saying everyone does or will own multiple properties.
 
Andy Doof said:
They are all our opinions and conjecture.
All I'm saying is the most up to date data we have doesn't support your view.
And a forum like this with self styled experts advising people to hold off buying property can help bring about the Doomsday so many people obviously crave.
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Andy Doof said:
I wasn't calling people here "self-styled experts" by the way...none of us know what's really going to happen. You can only look at the evidence, look at your circumstances and make a call. Mine is don't sell and if the right place comes along go ahead and buy it
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:confused:
 
Re: Could it happen here................??

Remix said:
Yes, estate agents of Ireland please note
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I don't think it's the EAs as much as the sellers. EAs want large volumes more than large prices (technically, yes they want both). The EAs would happily slash prices to gain more sales, but they know they won't get the sellers if they don't put an attractive price on the property (and the seller won't/may not agree to sell at a lower(/more accurate???) price).
 
bearishbull said:
The main estate agents in the Dublin housing market had been expecting the slowdown since earlier in year when, after a bumper spring season, the market seemed to run out of steam, leaving a large stock of property unsold.
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That was nice that they share this with us all now..........:rolleyes:
 
It begins, a piece of Junk Mail was just dropped into my letter box from Remax, I'd love to scan it and post it online, it sounds of desperation.

"My duty is to you the inquirer, so please feel free to contact me with absolutely any query you may have regarding your property or any land or property in the surrounding areas. Or simply just for a no obligation friendly and professional chat."

It goes on...

"You may of course not be considering selling at this time, but should you or any of your family and friends need property advice now or in the future I would be delighted to assist you."

Its gotten to the stage now that the estate agents are sending unaddressed junk mail.
 
JayDub said:
I assumed it would start with the builders, then their suppliers, the estate agents then the mortgage people and finally the banks. Please explain your chain of lay-offs.
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Can we not pay the builders to dig a big hole first.
Then line up the estate agents, the mortgage people, the banks, add in the developers and politicians and the lawyers.
and then ....

:D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D
 
JayDub said:
Its gotten to the stage now that the estate agents are sending unaddressed junk mail.
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Now?
We've been getting this for over the last year. The local EAs have master keys for communal apartment doors to access the letter boxes to assist with the canvasing!
 
Right, so when anyone says we're going to have a soft landing they have an agenda.
And those who predict a crash are the moral keepers of sanity in this world.
Give me a break, nobody has the foggiest what is going to happen.
 
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