Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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Andy Doof said:
I'd suggest that buying and selling property is and will become like most "businesses" as they evolve.
Witness the last few years...the definition of a no-brainer. Buy anywhere, it'll go up.
Now, much as the business world, retail trade or whatever has tightened up you have to be good to survive.
The This post will be deleted if not edited to remove bad language may fall out of the 1 bed in Balbriggan you bought off the plans. But the guy earlier who's thought through his Carrickmines purchase should be fine.
Again I'll say I don't believe we'll see an overall "crash".
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Who knows Andy_Doof!! You could be laughing at us next year saying i told you so but at the moment the evidence is pointing to the contrary! You havnt come up with any real evidence why it wont be a crash. For anyone to say it is a crash at the moment is premature ( and i dont think anyone here has yet said that it has crashed!) but its also premature to call it a soft landing. Unless sales start picking up in the next couple of months though a sharp correction across the board is the most likely outcome. Would you not agree?
 
They'll also tell you they've a queue of buyers for your place...may or may not be true.
Unsolicited mail like that suggests to me that things are so good for them they don't have to have the usual respect for the client...that rubbish like that actually works!
 
Andy Doof said:
Essentially, you're calling me a liar.
You're ignoring the fact that people can own 2 properties while there are sufficient tenants. No one is saying everyone does or will own multiple properties.
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I imagine this is directed at me. And no, I am not calling you a liar. I am merely pointing out that what you have said is not necessarily everyone else's experience, not to mind the fact that the CSO will pretty much automatically have more credibility than a single anonymous user on the internet.

The problem is many people have been advised by their banks to hold multiple properties which has had an impact on the supply of starter homes. This is a bad thing and has contributed to somewhat irrational prices in the starter home section. You are also ignoring the fact that if everyone does own one or two homes, then the supply of tenants dries up. Not only that, one of the key points on which the "no crash" argument depends is demographics and that involves immigration because the birthrate in this country is also falling. The number of tenants will fall as will the number of potential buyers.

In short, the whole thing is a lot more complex than you would have me believe from what you say. The problem is a lot of people do own more than one property while a lot of people cannot afford to buy any property. And much of that property is lying idle, either because capital appreciation is enough of a profit to make renting a nuisance or, in fact, the property is in the wrong place.
 
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and the spin from sherry fitz.
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Originally Posted by bearishbull
The main estate agents in the Dublin housing market had been expecting the slowdown since earlier in year when, after a bumper spring season, the market seemed to run out of steam, leaving a large stock of property unsold.
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Interesting articles above - it really does seem that The" Corporal Jones' " of the EA world are stepping up to the mark.

This is actually worse than I thought . Even tho Im a definite bear I really expected that it would keep going until summer 2007 thereafter I was expecting all hell to break loose.

Fair dues to all the guys and gals here who called it.
 
I agree completely...what's happening right now could be the soft landing I believe in, or the beginning of the doomsday scenario so many here predict. We will know soon enough though.
I do think I have given reasons though...Interest Rates not going over 5%, immigration, a new breed of people happy to rent for life, discretionary trusts and pensions being further liberalised, Dublin itself having too few homes, people being in for the long haul etc etc
 
Re: Could it happen here................??

Remix said:
Yes, estate agents of Ireland please note - in the US they managed to get sales rebounding (think of all those commisions) by slashing house prices at the fastest rate in 35 years. Get busy !
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The new homes sales increase in the US were based on 'revised' figures.
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Accepted, but I think there will be a whole constituency who will rent for life.
Let's leave the census issue, it's a moot point and you're right about credibility. I just find it so hard to believe 80% of my family don't really exisstatistically speaking! lol
 
Pretty funny Shanegl! Suppose it's a Game Theory type thing...I know my anecdotal evidence is true but everyone else's could be b...ocks! Oh what to do...lol
 
edo said:
Fair dues to all the guys and gals here who called it.
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Vindicated. :)

And if i may make another prediction...........the market will be depressed for another 5 years.

Options:
If you have cash reserves invest in Germany, otherwise accumulate cash and wait 4 years to acquire the ideal property in Ireland.
 
bearishbull said:
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and the spin from sherry fitz.
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I find there's much more fun in debunking bullish articles than reading bearish ones, :D and this is another classic to print off and keep.

It is interesting that he admits that there is a tightening in the bridging loan market - a prelude to a wider crunch perhaps?

He asserts that transactions for the year to date are "on a par with last year"....Hmmm....Maybe, but what about the last three months I wonder?

He seems to admit that the housing boom is over at least. And, from an estate agent this is about as bearish as you are likely to get.....At least for now, until falling transactions lead to desperation and a change of strategy. :)
 
Andy Doof said:
I agree completely...what's happening right now could be the soft landing I believe in, or the beginning of the doomsday scenario so many here predict. We will know soon enough though.
I do think I have given reasons though...Interest Rates not going over 5%, immigration, a new breed of people happy to rent for life, discretionary trusts and pensions being further liberalised, Dublin itself having too few homes, people being in for the long haul etc etc
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You cannot say with any certainty that interest rates will not go over 5% in the same way that no one could have predicted that they would go down as far as two or two and a half.

Most people are not happy to rent for life - they would be if the legislation here protected their long term interests more effectively but it does not.

Regarding the trusts and pensions being further liberalised - this is at this point still only speculation.

As regards your latter two items, 1) sufficient supply is predicated on the place not being deserted and given the large inward migration in the past three or four years this cannot really be relied upon and 2) "long haul" this is still speculation. A lot of people who are in things for the long haul often don't wind up staying there. Like my two previous landlords who sold from under me, for example.
 
Andy Doof.....If you do indeed work as an EA then I'm totally convinced that the market has changed...6 months ago you weren't even calling bidders back and now you're spending the afternoon on a web forum!
Firefly
 
Andy Doof said:
I do think I have given reasons though...Interest Rates not going over 5%,
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Eh? But even 5% interest rates could hammer the market! That's almost double where they started from! Are you saying that rates "only" rising to 5% won't have much affect on the market? How do you think people will suddenly be able to afford monthly repayments of nearly 2x?

You think 5% is OK because it's nothing like the historical highs. But a doubling of interest rates when average mortgages are over 10x average salary is a hell of a bigger rise in costs compared to say rates going up to 10% from 7% when a mortgage was only 2x average wage....
 
Gwynston said:
Eh? But even 5% interest rates could hammer the market! That's almost double where they started from! Are you saying that rates "only" rising to 5% won't have much affect on the market? How do you think people will suddenly be able to afford monthly repayments of nearly 2x?

You think 5% is OK because it's nothing like the historical highs. But a doubling of interest rates when average mortgages are over 10x average salary is a hell of a bigger rise in costs compared to say rates going up to 10% from 7% when a mortgage was only 2x average wage....
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No 4% is double where they started from!!!
 
Arthur Daley said:
This is why momentum is everything. If it sustains enough to cause 20% drops it'll go much further. This thead has been way ahead of the mass media for 3 months now, but now it's in the mass media the predictions of what'll happen next have kinda dried up. I reckon we'll see major responses from the VI's in terms of supply and pushing the credit envelope out even further to a truly reckless stage, before a crash can be called.
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No. Quite a number have here have called a 'crash'. I have.
 
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