Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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Gwynston said:
Is everyone so sure the government want to try to do something to extend the property boom?

Are they even aware that that a slowdown is happening?
If so, do they care? Sure, it's just the "correction" before the "soft landing" leading to "more sustainable, modest growth ongoing". It will all sort itself out...

On the other hand, iff they actually have the balls to admit the existence of a bubble, would they be stupid enough to actually do something to sustain it?
Surely a plan to handle the deflation would be better than trying to prop up ailing prices?
In whose interest is it to keep it going - are there really that many property bull voters that they need to keep "sweet"?

So many questions.....
Up to now, I haven't seen any good reason that the government should do something drastic in the budget to keep house prices rising. All McDowell's stampy duty suggestion was for was to help FTBs get on the ladder.
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They may not do it directly - but indirectly by putting more money into people's pockets. Cancels out the effects of rising interest rates..

Don't think they would dare remove stamp duty at the moment
1. It would annoy to many people who have bought in the last few years
2. It would seriously upset the coffers.

They may do something about it if the market heads south coz it may stimulate the market mean that people who bought in the past will be happy if it stops a markets falling.... IF

Who knows - speculation only. I wonder how the coffers have been effected by a stalled market from july onwards!?
 
room305 said:
As for the "Business & Technology Park" - there is absolutely nothing. Not a single company. On the opposite side of the road there is a large furniture place but the park has nothing. To compound the folly, the Institute of Technology has built an incubation unit that was supposed to feed smaller companies into the larger companies located in this park. The County Enterprise Board has built a similar unit which has a few small companies as far as I know. Lots of offices but very few companies.
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We shouldn't be too hard on Carlow for at least trying to engender some entrepreneurship, the fault lies with the population with our why would anyone be arsed to work to make money these days, property is yer only man attitude.

Maybe the redundancy money from a rash of layoffs in Braun, Lapple and the Sugar Factory will prompt some entrepreneurship among the general populace ...
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This might very well prove to be true, perhaps they could refit some of the new warehousing into funky New York style apartments?
 
comanche said:
They may not do it directly - but indirectly by putting more money into people's pockets. Cancels out the effects of rising interest rates..
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No doubt this will be accepted gratefully by all but I doubt it will reflate the housing bubble again. Sentiment has changed or is in the process of. The money will be pumped elsewhere and prices will keep falling.

In the U.S., if the Fed dropped rates to 1% again, I'd bet it wouldn't stop house prices falling.
 
Good news from the Galway Advertiser, Tony Kavanagh of Sherry Fitz Kavanagh says it's all grand, now is a good time to buy prices will moderate but won't drop.
The doomsayers have got it wrong again as they have repeatably for the last 10 years.
As to why it's all fine he says with GNP up over 9% in the first two quarters of 06 all the immigrants and interest rates leveling off we'll have a vibrant market in the new year.

I guess he hasn't noticed those falling asking prices around Galway then.
 
Originally Posted by room305 http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showthread.php?p=300202#post300202
As for the "Business & Technology Park" - there is absolutely nothing. Not a single company. On the opposite side of the road there is a large furniture place but the park has nothing. To compound the folly, the Institute of Technology has built an incubation unit that was supposed to feed smaller companies into the larger companies located in this park. The County Enterprise Board has built a similar unit which has a few small companies as far as I know. Lots of offices but very few companies.
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Thanks for clearing that for me - I wasn't really sure exactly where the Decentralised Gov Dept was located - I jst remember hearing that they paid approx 2 million for the site that was valued at around 500.000 - That was the moment I knew we had well and truly lost it in this little country of ours.

Lordly I forgot about Lapple - Man its been a bad year for Carlow - with the exception of beating Wicklow in Football. In a way its kind of symbolic of the country at large - building housing and retail outlets as far as the eye can see - industry , manufacturing and exports - becoming a ghosttown.

This might very well prove to be true, perhaps they could refit some of the new warehousing into funky New York style apartments?
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Maybe - somehow the address of of "Dublin Road - Carlow" doesnt quite have the same funky appeal as say "Greenwich Village" "Tribeca" or "The Battery" in New York or the Embarcadero in San Francisco!!!!
 
phoenix_n said:
The irish property boom, ladies and gentlemen, is over.
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Now that the property boom is over and we are proved right we will all be able to look foward to a winter of dinner parties, cocktail receptions and charity balls where the Bulls laud our wisdom and ask for our opinion on the new economy while they publicly chastise themselves for being so enthralled with property in the first place (but secretly claiming to each other they knew it was a sham all along).

I can picture whole ballrooms sitting in rapt silece as we explain yields and how to calculate % incereases AND decreases and how to fill the voids in their CVs where they were sitting around living off MEW.

Those most badly burned and most heavly endebted will humbly seek us out and berate themselves for not listening to our advice and entreat us to forgive them their foolishness.

Oh I am alomost dizzy with anticipation, the next six months will be a whirlwind, dust of your black ties our hour of glory is upon us.
 
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Now that the property boom is over and we are proved right we will all be able to look foward to a winter of dinner parties, cocktail receptions and charity balls where the bears laud our wisdom and ask for our opinion on the new economy while they publicly chastise themselves for being so enthralled with property in the first place (but secretly claiming to each other they knew it was a sham all along
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Yo SC - dont ya mean the Property "Bulls"???? the Bears have known all along!
 
StoppedClock said:
Now that the property boom is over and we are proved right we will all be able to look foward to a winter of dinner parties, cocktail receptions and charity balls where the bears laud our wisdom and ask for our opinion on the new economy while they publicly chastise themselves for being so enthralled with property in the first place (but secretly claiming to each other they knew it was a sham all along).

I can picture whole ballrooms sitting in rapt silece as we explain yields and how to calculate % incereases AND decreases and how to fill the voids in their CVs where they were sitting around living off MEW.

Those most badly burned and most heavly endebted will humbly seek us out and berate themselves for not listening to our advice and entreat us to forgive them their foolishness.

Oh I am alomost dizzy with anticipation, the next six months will be a whirlwind, dust of your black ties our hour of glory is upon us.
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I don't want to rain on your parade or anything like that but didn't someone mention a deadcat bounce for May? YOu may want to wait for the barbecue season for maximum effect....
 
slump in property prices will be great for the country, great for the displaced workers.

ppl work harder and longer for less when their need increase.

ppl become more creative, imaginative and their enterperunship spirit rises.

increase our competitiveness, lowers wages greatly in construction, things will be done quicker and faster, builders will call back early instead of never....


things will return to fundamentals, investment in earning assets (as opposed to appreciating assets) will grow....as money is still very very cheap
(technically free at moment)

inflation in consumer products will drop, mechanics will earn a bit more, and depreciating fixed asset salesmen will suffer in the way that they so much deserve to.

agree...or am i way of the point!
 
conor_mc said:
I think we're all pretty darn good at patting each other on the back here, I wonder will the bulls feel the same this time next year?
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My post was v. tongue in cheek, I was playing on the strength of phoenix_n’s conviction. In reality now that my peers have actually started to take notice of what I have been saying I have had to tone it down as I really would hate anyone to STR on my account and regret it later. The truth is no one knows what could happen. If prices went up 10% per annum for another 5 years they would still only be as ludicrous as they are now (given that ludicrous pricing is non-linear), I’d say we have a few twists and turns yet in this story which goes partway to explaining my addiction to the thread.
 
Hi BT,

How about sticking to the topic? Discuss the general economy in one of the other threads. This thread is about "Current public sentiment towards the housing market".

aj
 
ajapale said:
Hi BT,

How about sticking to the topic? Discuss the general economy in one of the other threads. This thread is about "Current public sentiment towards the housing market".

aj
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sorry but i see this as related,

hence references to cheaper labour -> cheaper houses.
developers owing loand @ higher rates -> quicker turnaround on development land to recoup, make some profit as opposed to massive -> cheaper houses @ better quality.

ppl working harder -> esp in construction -> better for all, and helpful in 10-12yr window to public housing....

ie: prices will crash, then stagnate, finally picking pack up after about 10-12 yr.
after all, where can all the builders emigrate to now??..so will have to, more than likely stay and work alot harder etc.
 
Calina said:
I don't want to rain on your parade or anything like that but didn't someone mention a deadcat bounce for May? YOu may want to wait for the barbecue season for maximum effect....
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poormouth said:
Definition of Blowoff taken from

Is it possible that we saw the blowoff in the Irish housing market early in 2006 or is it too early to say yet?
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http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showpost.php?p=198875&postcount=41

Dead Cat Bounce and Blowoff are good terms. I commented in the above post about Head and Shoulders Pattern in Technical Analysis of a market.



Notes:
The "head-and-shoulders" pattern is believed to be one of the most reliable trend-reversal patterns.
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The market levelled off in 2004, picking up again in 2005 through to its peak in early 2006 (this year). I'd say you could get you bounce in May (or maybe September) alright. Of course Technical Analysis is great at looking at past markets but isn't so good at predicting the future (nothing really is).

Great that what I thought in April about the then current situation appears to have been true. ;)
 
Eh hem!

If prices are falling and looks like fast, also gaining much momentum, by Budget day the case for "Stamp Duty" changes will be negated by massive down turn in house prices.

The topic will be a "Lame-Duck" Politically & in reality too.

If the Government are stupid enough to go near the housing market at this stage and they do change stamp duty not having read the market, it will only add to the downward pressures on prices!

One of the many intertwinning catch-22s you'll trip over in the run to the door....

Personally I don't think they will go near it.
 
Savvy said:
Never heard the expression 'Reduced reserve'. Does this mean they'll start accepting offers at 1.1m but expect to sell it for more?
Old Price: 1.2m
[broken link removed]
New Price: 1.1m
http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=114686
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Anything but "falling"...

Spoke to a guy recently who is in the process of moving (bearish but figures his current PPR will fall more than his hoped for new one - he has done the math) decied he would wring a few extra € off his EA commision by making them squirm while valuing his property.

Whatever AMV they gave him he assured them that a smaller property on a lower floor in worse condition had gone for 15% more in the Spring and demanded to know were prices falling, he was assured they were correcting, readjusting or becoming more realistic but they most definitely were not falling, and anyway these are only asking prices.
So he said if it is only an AMV would his place definitely go for above this? They said definitely but in the current conditions it may go for just above the AMV... or AMV... or maybe slightly lower BUT... it would only go for lower to stir up interest?? :confused:.

Starting to get confused himself he then sought clarity by asking if the price his house eventually sells for is less than the AMV + 15% (from Spring) would this mean prices were falling? ...the EA said no.

Bananas.
 
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