Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

[MadPad]

Too early to say for certain.

My fear is that the government could yet do something stupid that extends the bubble, thereby enhancing the pain of undoing it.

If history is anything to go by, its a certainty that they are trying to come up with a way to extend it... very difficult to see what else they can do they havent already been doing, Section 23, Section 50 etc etc etc

Theres an election coming, and the temptation to meddle with the market must be immense. But the sheer scale of the numbers leaves it very difficult to do anything without committing billions.

Even the stamp duty proposal from McDowell is very badly thought out... i guess he could become known as the guy whose first few weeks leading the PD's saw him bottle out on Bertie and cause a housing crash by giving a nod and a wink to people not to buy until at least before the budget. He's off to a great start...
If we are going to remove stamp duty, then some form of property tax is needed. like the old rates system, it would kill remaining investor appetite.

And anyways, how do you fix the problem without seriously affecting the "paddy lasts" who bought in the last few years? They have votes too...
Maybe the timing of this thing is just right, too late for this government to do anything and too early in the term of the next government to committ billions to it....

 

[miju]

As someone who has been trying to sell in Lucan since August, I finally got a sale agreed last week (fingers crossed it will go through)

I got €16k less than next door to me got at Easter, which meant I could not buy what I initially put my deposit on, but decided to take the money and run, all the same and will do if I get it. I am trying to get the skids put under my buyer (an investor) to sign up.

for all those out there syaing drop is asking prices does not equate to actual drop in sale price i proudly present anecdotal , exhibit a

"The longer you wait to sell - the less you'll get"

throw the buyer sentiment that is currently gathering strength into the recipe of

"the longer i wait to buy the more i could save"

add a dash of salt , allow to cool for a few months and you've a right little recipe for the end of the boom days for property

 

[Open_Window]

Holy Bubble POP Batman, I only go away for a few hours and now thoery & "IMO's" have turned into real "PANIC" and now the Irish times, finally someone in the main stream media is catching on, how long 3-4 months has it taken??

THat Landlords Life is outrageously pretentious & smug. There are other words to describe its rather crass approach but I might be banned from the froum and I wouldn't want that.

I am dearly trying to convinvce people who are in the process of buying to STOP!!! I can't convince them too. I would like to be proven wrong but I know its just not the case. I have never seen so much activity and turnaround in the 3 years I've been watching the property related forums.

THe DAFT report is going to be explosive and will just quicken the run for the door to a DASH!

 

[Duplex]

Time for me to dust down this hackneyed but oh so apposite quote once more.


As famous economist John Kenneth Galbraith writes in his book "A Short History of Financial Euphoria":

"Those who had been riding the upward wave decide now is the time to get out. Those who thought the increase would be forever find their illusion destroyed abruptly, and they, also, respond to the newly revealed reality by selling or trying to sell. And thus the rule, supported by the experience of centuries: the speculative episode always ends not with a whimper but with a bang."

 

[MandaC]

Thanks for posting my quotes re my house price dropping in Lucan!! Anyway, over the last week they appear to have taken another hit, so hopefully I got out in time(not signed off yet)

I have also noticed a distinct change in the attitude of Estate Agents when enquiring about properties to buy. Previously, you would not even get a call back, a friend in work FTB, was treated disgracefully by one of the bigger firms when trying to buy about 16 months ago. Would not take bids over the phone, did not call back, basically sod off, too many buyers too little properties kind of attitude

I have been phoning up about a number of properties to buy and am finding it a totally different scenario at the moment. All the EA's are becoming very attentive - I have been bombarded with calls since registering with one - so perhaps I might make up my €16K at this end.

I have noticed new builds seem to be holding steady (well where I am looking anyway)- however I was reading a thread on Adamstown whereby the new Phase launched last week seemed to be cheaper than the first phase for some properties. I think places like Adamstown will take a serious hit.

 

[Bedsit]

[broken link removed](Irish Examiner)

 

[Duplex]

[broken link removed](Irish Examiner)

Some of these places have pretty sobering vacancy rates.

 

[whathome]

I have noticed new builds seem to be holding steady (well where I am looking anyway)- however I was reading a thread on Adamstown whereby the new Phase launched last week seemed to be cheaper than the first phase for some properties. I think places like Adamstown will take a serious hit.

I also heard that recent buyers in Adamstown were shocked to hear that there are a number of halting sites planned for the development. They were upset because the halting site info didn't appear in the brochure and the agent never told them!!!

The agent probably didn't tell them about falling asking prices in Lucan either.

 

[Gwynston]

If history is anything to go by, its a certainty that they are trying to come up with a way to extend [the bubble]

Is everyone so sure the government want to try to do something to extend the property boom?

Are they even aware that that a slowdown is happening?
If so, do they care? Sure, it's just the "correction" before the "soft landing" leading to "more sustainable, modest growth ongoing". It will all sort itself out...

On the other hand, iff they actually have the balls to admit the existence of a bubble, would they be stupid enough to actually do something to sustain it?
Surely a plan to handle the deflation would be better than trying to prop up ailing prices?
In whose interest is it to keep it going - are there really that many property bull voters that they need to keep "sweet"?

So many questions.....
Up to now, I haven't seen any good reason that the government should do something drastic in the budget to keep house prices rising. All McDowell's stampy duty suggestion was for was to help FTBs get on the ladder.

 

[MadPad]

[broken link removed](Irish Examiner)

In the parts of the US I travel to, there are "retail parks" every few miles. with the usual shops, electronics, sports, fast food, furnishing, etc
Im always confused as to how these actually make money, most shops are open really long hours and seem to have as many staff as customers in there most times i visit, which is outside of work hours.. the mall's proper seem to be reasonably busy, if not busy by irish standards....

In ireland the trend is increasing but the shops are jammed no matter how many open... it seems we have an insatiable appetite for consumer goods.

 

[conor_mc]

Is everyone so sure the government want to try to do something to extend the property boom?

Are they even aware that that a slowdown is happening?
If so, do they care? Sure, it's just the "correction" before the "soft landing" leading to "more sustainable, modest growth ongoing". It will all sort itself out...

On the other hand, iff they actually have the balls to admit the existence of a bubble, would they be stupid enough to actually do something to sustain it?
Surely a plan to handle the deflation would be better than trying to prop up ailing prices?
In whose interest is it to keep it going - are there really that many property bull voters that they need to keep "sweet"?

So many questions.....
Up to now, I haven't seen any good reason that the government should do something drastic in the budget to keep house prices rising. All McDowell's stampy duty suggestion was for was to help FTBs get on the ladder.

I'm not convinced they'd do anything deliberately to prop up the bubble. I'm worried they'd do something stupid that would result in a propping up of the bubble!

Seriously, they'd do anything for a soundbite, never mind the wider consequences for the country.

 

[Borderlord]

IMO I think the budget cant come soon enough for the vested interests as it looks like a lot of damage will be done between now and then judging by the article in today Irish Times as panic selling takes hold

 

[Arthur Daley]

I think this might be a real possibility but do people think that once the "prices only go up" spell is broken by all the bearish reports (and evidnce on the ground) that they can put the genie back in the bottle?

Yes I reckon that since 97/98 once there was a bit of momentum to falling prices (and the IT being on board a few months after buying myhome is a big turnaround) then the whole job jot could collapse. We've had falls in 2001, but they weren't enough to bring reality to the market. It could be like watching a chimney stack if the trends continue. Once she goes it gathers it's own momentum just like it did on the way up.

 

[edo]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bedsit
[broken link removed](Irish Examiner)


Some of these places have pretty sobering vacancy rates.

Too Right - Just outside Carlow Town - on the Dublin Road - There is a new "Technology Park" being built - the only tenants so far as I can see on the occasions I pass thru - I stand to be corrected on this - Room305? - are interior decor retail outlets and the like and I think a another building that the Gov paid over 3 times the going rate for a year or 2 ago as part of the Decentralisation fiasco and as yet has anybody moved in ?

- High technology me This post will be deleted if not edited to remove bad language - well maybe the beds and sofas on sale might be - but it is hardly the organic small tech companies that the planners had in mind! -

now if the DIY and Retail sector goes south - what will be left on these sites , which are dotted in the most bizarre locations around the country - I can see a late 70's early 80's moonscape appearing again of vacant units and roads and utilities half built and abandoned going nowhere

 

[MadPad]

Is everyone so sure the government want to try to do something to extend the property boom?
....
Are they even aware that that a slowdown is happening?
If so, do they care? Sure, it's just the "correction" before the "soft landing" leading to "more sustainable, modest growth ongoing". It will all sort itself out...
....

agree with almost everything you say ....

I think they must be well aware of a slowdown. after all they are in regular contact with the great & the good who peddle these developments. Before the .com bust, there were warning signs such as a reduction in freight movement that analysts picked up on, admittedly too late to change anything, but some called it right.. it showed that growth in the new economy wasn't all it was supposed to be... Wonder is theres anything similar for house building, cement orders/whatever.


As for McDowell's & stampy duty. he is either a genuis who is trying to defalte the bubble all on his own or an idiot whose mouth engages before his brain.

 

[MandaC]

Thats true about the halting sites in Adamstown. People who have bought in the first phase (the castle) are trying to justify that the falling prices in the Paddocks by saying that the castle are better finished, less density, etc.

Its very difficult to get people to accept that there is a drop in the market at all. I only know because I have seen it first hand. Its more evident in the places like Lucan, Clonee, etc because there are too many sprawling souless housing estates where there are a glut of 3 beds of all types - too expensive for FTB but with no trade up potential. That was certainly the experience with mine.

I am hoping to buy somewhere nice and small for myself and to hell with the property market after that- I was going to stretch myself to a mortgage of €230+, but given the situation with interest rates etc, and the general economy, I am going to try to limit that to €170 max (maybe even less if I can) and have a life too!

 

[StoppedClock]

In the parts of the US I travel to, there are "retail parks" every few miles. with the usual shops, electronics, sports, fast food, furnishing, etc
Im always confused as to how these actually make money, most shops are open really long hours and seem to have as many staff as customers in there most times i visit, which is outside of work hours.. the mall's proper seem to be reasonably busy, if not busy by irish standards....

In ireland the trend is increasing but the shops are jammed no matter how many open... it seems we have an insatiable appetite for consumer goods.

From what I hear in Dundrum there are plenty of people swarming around the shops but not doing much buying. As retail leases come to an end they are not being renewed by the tennents (smoothie bar and fast food joints aside). The anchor tennents (HOF and HN) don't pay rent just % of profit. Given that no one has ever bought anything in HOF full price (everything always reduced) I'd say their profits are slim. So far the "Fashion Street" which originally was to have Gucci, Prada, Bvlgari & Chanel shops (as opposed to departments in a larger store) is totally empty although I have heard rumors that Fred's Fasion maybe lured there from under the Luas bridge at the crossroads at Taney Road .

The final nail in the coffin is that car parking prices were slashed and then a 3 hours for 1 rate was brought in, even with that they are only at 60% capacity.

 

[StoppedClock]

As for McDowell's & stampy duty. he is either a genuis who is trying to defalte the bubble all on his own or an idiot whose mouth engages before his brain.

I think he might be both.

 

[room305]

Too Right - Just outside Carlow Town - on the Dublin Road - There is a new "Technology Park" being built - the only tenants so far as I can see on the occasions I pass thru - I stand to be corrected on this - Room305? - are interior decor retail outlets and the like and I think a another building that the Gov paid over 3 times the going rate for a year or 2 ago as part of the Decentralisation fiasco and as yet has anybody moved in ?

Decentralisation seems to be on schedule for Carlow. They have a site, building is going ahead and staff will be moved to temporary offices prior to completion.

As for the "Business & Technology Park" - there is absolutely nothing. Not a single company. On the opposite side of the road there is a large furniture place but the park has nothing. To compound the folly, the Institute of Technology has built an incubation unit that was supposed to feed smaller companies into the larger companies located in this park. The County Enterprise Board has built a similar unit which has a few small companies as far as I know. Lots of offices but very few companies.

Maybe the redundancy money from a rash of layoffs in Braun, Lapple and the Sugar Factory will prompt some entrepreneurship among the general populace ...

 

[phoenix_n]

Was watching this one....must have gone sale agreed but back on market

Was 480 now [broken link removed]

Whilst i had predicted the crash will be in the publics mind by xmas i am beginning to think that this thread has brought the knowledge into the public domain much sooner.

The irish property boom, ladies and gentlemen, is over.