Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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bearishbull said:
The market peaked in June and had been in decline since - but sellers have panicked. There's no telling them to wait."
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As they rushed to buy in a panic, why would they not do likewise when it comes to selling up? This exposes the myth of the carefully managed soft landing.
 
bearishbull said:
The market peaked in June and had been in decline since - but sellers have panicked. There's no telling them to wait."
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Have to admit I didn't think the market (and sentiment ) would turn so quickly though a market built solely on sentiment was always susceptible I suppose
 
bearishbull said:
Extract from Irish Times today.

It's amusing , this rush to sell by the owners of second-hand houses. Given the market is overloaded, some sellers are having to drop their prices, to achieve a sale. Of course, they may not reveal the discount to their neighbours, thereby perpetuating the fiction that higher prices are being achieved.

The neighbours are not fooled, but are in denial, because they are in a panic. The result, as one estate put it to me this week, is a wholesale rush to dispose of second-hand houses, in spite of a glut on the market. It's hard, too, to have sympathy for the laggards who are making fools of themselves by rushing to sell when the market has peaked.

Now, it's probably too late to realise the massive profits of recent years. It was put to me graphically by one estate agent: "In the past three months, I sold three identical houses in the same street. The prices were - €1.5m, €1.4.m, €1.1m - in that declining order per month. The market peaked in June and had been in decline since - but sellers have panicked. There's no telling them to wait."
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That is dynamite - one to cut out and keep for the scrap book. The tide is turning now but the speed has certainly taken me by surprise.
 
bearishbull said:
Extract from Irish Times today.

It's amusing , this rush to sell by the owners of second-hand houses. Given the market is overloaded, some sellers are having to drop their prices, to achieve a sale. Of course, they may not reveal the discount to their neighbours, thereby perpetuating the fiction that higher prices are being achieved.

The neighbours are not fooled, but are in denial, because they are in a panic. The result, as one estate put it to me this week, is a wholesale rush to dispose of second-hand houses, in spite of a glut on the market. It's hard, too, to have sympathy for the laggards who are making fools of themselves by rushing to sell when the market has peaked.

Now, it's probably too late to realise the massive profits of recent years. It was put to me graphically by one estate agent: "In the past three months, I sold three identical houses in the same street. The prices were - €1.5m, €1.4.m, €1.1m - in that declining order per month. The market peaked in June and had been in decline since - but sellers have panicked. There's no telling them to wait."
Click to expand...


Any link to this?

PS Get some sleep ;)
 
This article in the independent this morning indicates immigration is slowing down and growth in the construction sector is finished.
 
plaudit said:
€1.5m to €1.1m, thats a drop of almost 40%:eek:
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But not surprising given that rental yields on these places were 2% or less; the fundamentals didn't support the valuations. As a poster on this thread so aptly put it these properties were 'instruments of capital appreciation' and when prices stop going up they fail in that role.
 
conor_mc said:
In a speculative bubble, supply isn't so much the issue, over-demand is. As in demand for instruments of capital appreciation, not demand for homes.

If undersupply was the issue, then house price growth wouldn't be speculative by definition.... it'd be a genuine price rise due to lack of supply (think 1996-2001).

Even if we were perfectly supplied for genuine home occupation, demand for speculative instruments of capital appreciation warps the supply/demand curve. Remove that element of demand (i.e. lack of further cap. apprec.) and in theory you get a return to fundamental values.... not accounting for sentiment/herd mentality.

Incidentally, I think we are oversupplied. We'll see what shakes out of the tree once capital appreciation begins to disappear.
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Post of the thread
 
bearishbull said:
Extract from Irish Times today.

It's amusing , this rush to sell by the owners of second-hand houses. Given the market is overloaded, some sellers are having to drop their prices, to achieve a sale. Of course, they may not reveal the discount to their neighbours, thereby perpetuating the fiction that higher prices are being achieved.

The neighbours are not fooled, but are in denial, because they are in a panic. The result, as one estate put it to me this week, is a wholesale rush to dispose of second-hand houses, in spite of a glut on the market. It's hard, too, to have sympathy for the laggards who are making fools of themselves by rushing to sell when the market has peaked.

Now, it's probably too late to realise the massive profits of recent years. It was put to me graphically by one estate agent: "In the past three months, I sold three identical houses in the same street. The prices were - €1.5m, €1.4.m, €1.1m - in that declining order per month. The market peaked in June and had been in decline since - but sellers have panicked. There's no telling them to wait."
Click to expand...

This is going to be hugely damaging to sentiment. The Irish Times is the most respected broadsheet in Ireland; this will not go unnoticed. I think we can expect another report or press release very soon by vested interests in the property market for damage control on this.

I wonder will anyone be able to get an interview with BoI's economist [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Dan McLaughlin to see if this article ties in with his vision of a "soft landing"?[/FONT]
 
Duplex said:
But not surprising given that rental yields on these places were 2% or less; the fundamentals didn't support the valuations. As a poster on this thread so aptly put it these properties were 'instruments of capital appreciation' and when prices stop going up they fail in that role.
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Why thank you Duplex, I do believe that phrase was first coined by myself. ;)
 
A lot of people were trying to make money while the party lasted - knowing that it couldn't last - but still thinking the bubble had enough momentum to carry them along.

The "I-could-be-Paddy-Last" fear lurking in the back of their minds now moves to the fore and the rush to the exit begins.

The problem now, of course, is that the exit has become very narrow !
 
Remix said:
A lot of people were trying to make money while the party lasted - knowing that it couldn't last - but still thinking the bubble had enough momentum to carry them along.

The "I-could-be-Paddy-Last" fear lurking in the back of their minds now moves to the fore and the rush to the exit begins.

The problem now, of course, is that the exit has become very narrow !
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Have you ever tried to get out through the letterbox ? I have, and can vouch that it really hurts.
 
Link to that Irish Times Article this morning (subscription required):
[broken link removed]
 
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