Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

[JayDub]

Talking about job losses in Dublin at the moment as a leading indicator for future house price falls is irrelevant. We have effectively full employment and unemployment is not anywhere near being a factor yet (which is not to say that it will not in the future).

I disagree. Those 450 jobs are unionized jobs and pay above average wages. Those blue collar workers will find it hard to find similar paying jobs, especially when there is an abundance of non national workers willing to work for minimum wage. The biggest growing sectors in Ireland are banking and construction. I can't see a 40 year old woman whose only experience is packing Fruit and Nut bars, joining those sectors. 450 jobs redundancies announced today, how many thousands more will be announced over the coming months. Dell and Intel spring to mind.

 

[fatmanknows]

http://www.finfacts.com/irelandbusinessnews/publish/article_10007701.shtml

Interview with John Hurley (central bank head) suggesting that there will be no fall in Irish house prices.............................

Hadn't thought of that.

Mr Hurley is talking out of his rear. The cracks are appearing all over the place. The descent is only just beginning (imo). The auctions last year and earlier have had more sales in one day than the total for the season since starting up again last month. There are For Sale signs Galore everywhere. Big Red bricks are going direct to Private Sale - fearful of been humbled in the auction room - Practically everyone you meet is calling it over. Recent interest rises have yet to kick in, more coming down the road. The game is up. Only a few fools left looking to buy at the mo.

 

[Purple]

Has anyone read all 6561 (now 6562) posts on this thread?
If so what did they do with their time before?
Yer all mad, mad I say...
The answer is; no one knows what will happen. That's it!

 

[Marie]

Bingo

Irish house prices up 270% since 1996

http://www.finfacts.com/irelandbusinessnews/publish/article_10006275.shtml

http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=9&si=1574591&issue_id=13766

"More than 17 per cent of the private non-farm workforce are in construction. The total rises to 20 percent when jobs in services related to construction are added. The corresponding proportions for the UK and US are 7 per cent and 5.4 per cent respectively.

There are more than 250,000 directly employed in the Irish construction sector. When an estimated 80,000 in financial and business service jobs that are dependent on the construction sector are added to direct employment, we get a total of 330,000 - just short of 20% of the private workforce according to Central Statistics Office (CSO) figures. .............".

Eminently relevant to what happens next!

 

[liteweight]

Mr Hurley is talking out of his rear. The cracks are appearing all over the place.

He's developing a buider's bum???

 

[zac]

Has anyone read all 6561 (now 6562) posts on this thread?
If so what did they do with their time before?
Yer all mad, mad I say...
The answer is; no one knows what will happen. That's it!

finally someone with a little sense on this forum. purple now you better run.

 

[beattie]

Has anyone read all 6561 (now 6562) posts on this thread?
If so what did they do with their time before?
Yer all mad, mad I say...
The answer is; no one knows what will happen. That's it!

Maybe your right, do you think that sentiment has changed? I know some bulls at work/friends who now think it will level off which is certainly a change in their sentiment and some of them have bought investment properties.

 

[StoppedClock]

http://www.finfacts.com/irelandbusinessnews/publish/article_10007701.shtml

Interview with John Hurley (central bank head) suggesting that there will be no fall in Irish house prices. Although he cautions that infrastructural spending cannot take up the slack for a large drop in private sector construction because the drop in tax revenue would mean that it would not be possible to up spending without breaking the terms of the stability and growth pact.

Hadn't thought of that.

test

 

[Marie]

He's developing a buider's bum???

Alltogether now, to the tune of "Where will the Baby's Dimple Be?"

Bidder's bum or builder's crack
Seems to me it will be a sin
If it's always covered by a safety-pin
Where will the [boom/bust/increase/collapse] be

 

[gearoidmm]

Has anyone read all 6561 (now 6562) posts on this thread?
If so what did they do with their time before?
Yer all mad, mad I say...
The answer is; no one knows what will happen. That's it!

God, if we took that attitude, we'd never talk about anything. Of course we don't really know what's going to happen, it's all opinion. If you had told anyone that the average Dublin house would be worth 400k 10 years ago, you'd have been chucked into Portrane. Equally, I think that the bears on this thread are using it to take out their frustrations about the fact that they are being laughed at for saying that prices will fall.

That said, I have read most of the posts and I feel a little sheepish admitting it. And the whole thing has gotten a little repetitive recently

 

[StoppedClock]

Has anyone read all 6561 (now 6562) posts on this thread?
If so what did they do with their time before?
Yer all mad, mad I say...
The answer is; no one knows what will happen. That's it!

I have... but given reading posts is much quicker than writing them and you have made 10 times as many posts as I have who is the bigger time waster?

 

[Calina]

I have been reading this thread since it started (and it seems like ages ago now). And yes, I would agree, there are a certain number of recurring themes. What has changed quite a bit over the life of the thread is that the contributing personalities are quite different to who was here at the start, and additionally, who populated prior threads on the future direction of the Irish property market. I find that somewhat revealing.

 

[bo se]

"More than 17 per cent of the private non-farm workforce are in construction. The total rises to 20 percent when jobs in services related to construction are added. The corresponding proportions for the UK and US are 7 per cent and 5.4 per cent respectively.

There are more than 250,000 directly employed in the Irish construction sector. When an estimated 80,000 in financial and business service jobs that are dependent on the construction sector are added to direct employment, we get a total of 330,000 - just short of 20% of the private workforce according to Central Statistics Office (CSO) figures. .............".

Eminently relevant to what happens next!

Such comparisons are often made by Irish property bears (including some high profile and presumably highly paid pundits) who rarely make the link to demographics. For example it is estimated that the Irish population grew by 2.5% in year to April 2006; while the EU population has been growing at about 0.25% per annum in recent years according to a recent analyis by NCB. So at least in year to April (during which growth was admiteedly a little faster than in preceeeding years) Irish population grew at 10 times recent trend growth for Europe. Why then is it surprising, or inappropriate that a higher proportion of our workforce is involved in building homes. And if you consider our infrastructure deficit surely we need to employ more resources than our neighbourrs in building roads etc?

Similar arguments are often made w.r.t. credit growth again without consideration of demographics.

 

[beattie]

Why then is it surprising, or inappropriate that a higher proportion of our workforce is involved in building homes.

As has been pointed out ad nausem by many posters before there are 275k empty houses in the country, do we really need to build ~100k units per year. Agree with your point that we have to improve our road infrastructure but most of the motorway work will be finished by 2010.

 

[walk2dewater]

Has anyone read all 6561 (now 6562) posts on this thread?
If so what did they do with their time before?
Yer all mad, mad I say...
The answer is; no one knows what will happen. That's it!

Purple, I like your byline--> yes life is "90%" how you react to what happens. That's why I'm spending almost all my investing research energy in two areas:
1. shorting candidates among Irish property relates shares
2. long additions to my pharma/health/biotech holdings

For entertainment (sad!) I pop over here occasionally (ok daily). In my mind the "bubble" debate is over, but theres something about this thread....

 

[redo]

Sentiment roll call

Name : REDO
Age : 34
Marital Status : MARRIED
Owner / Renter : OWNER
Advice : Investors sell, Trade upers buy, FTB hold

Age : 34 (35 tommorow)
Marital Status : MARRIED
Owner / Renter : OWNER
Advice : Investors sell, Trade upers buy, FTB hold

 

[MandaC]

As someone who has been trying to sell in Lucan since August, I finally got a sale agreed last week (fingers crossed it will go through)

I got €16k less than next door to me got at Easter, which meant I could not buy what I initially put my deposit on, but decided to take the money and run, all the same and will do if I get it. I am trying to get the skids put under my buyer (an investor) to sign up.

Since last week even, property prices in the Estate seemed to have dropped by another €10K (which means if I loose this sale, I could be down up to €26k on what sold since Easter) or wont be able to sell at all.

People are panicing in the area and once one drops to go (as two have done this week), they all will. €26K on a house in the €350-€360K bracket is a lot of money. Especially when I am trying to buy somewhere else that has not taken such a hit.

I have spoken to 2 EA's in the area this week(one my own who sold for me and another Lucan based EA who showed me a property in Kildare that I am considering buying). Both said the market is an absolute disaster. One actually said there are certain areas which he would have to consider not taking on a property due to oversupply.

My sister has also been trying to sell in Clondalkin. She did not find it as difficult as me to sell, as hers was cheaper to begin with, but still had a slight price drop, nearer to €5k on sales prices in Spring.

I understand Clonee is also suffering the same fate as Lucan at the moment. In some ways the areas are quite similar.

I am hoping to trade up, not necessarily to a bigger house, but just to a nicer area. Will not buy in an area with so many houses again.

I know there were a few people on the boards looking to sell out of Lucan? Anyone else had any success?

 

[Abbeykiller]

bo se, I don't buy the demographics argument. The reason the population is bulging at the moment is that a booming construction sector is feeding itself. When the construction sector slow down takes hold, these lads will all head to London to the Kings Cross channel tunnel & East End Olympic projects. The immigrants that continue to pour in to this country will be 10 to a 2 bed flat cheap labour who can't sustain our ridiculous property prices.
It's all about the fundamentals - average house price against the affordability of the average worker. This will return to its 'natural' level and well done to all those who made a buck from the boom but like all parties, it can't last.

 

[Sidewinder]

When the construction sector slow down takes hold, these lads will all head to London to the Kings Cross channel tunnel & East End Olympic projects. The immigrants that continue to pour in to this country will be 10 to a 2 bed flat cheap labour who can't sustain our ridiculous property prices.

Not a chance. The global economic migrant grapevine is one of the fastest-reacting "markets" there is. The minute our economy starts to go belly-up, the Poles and Latvians etc. will a) immediately stop arriving on these shores and b) half the ones already here will be planning their exit strategies.

You'll see immigration suddenly reversing into emigration again within a few months, not a continued flow of immigration into a dying economy.

 

[bearishbull]

Extract from Irish Times today.

It's amusing , this rush to sell by the owners of second-hand houses. Given the market is overloaded, some sellers are having to drop their prices, to achieve a sale. Of course, they may not reveal the discount to their neighbours, thereby perpetuating the fiction that higher prices are being achieved.

The neighbours are not fooled, but are in denial, because they are in a panic. The result, as one estate put it to me this week, is a wholesale rush to dispose of second-hand houses, in spite of a glut on the market. It's hard, too, to have sympathy for the laggards who are making fools of themselves by rushing to sell when the market has peaked.

Now, it's probably too late to realise the massive profits of recent years. It was put to me graphically by one estate agent: "In the past three months, I sold three identical houses in the same street. The prices were - €1.5m, €1.4.m, €1.1m - in that declining order per month. The market peaked in June and had been in decline since - but sellers have panicked. There's no telling them to wait."