Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

Status
Not open for further replies.
ninsaga said:
Jeez..lookat all the fun I missed whilst having a cuppa tea :)



NO - an offer was made ...lets stick to the facts please....(see folloowing quote)



OK then why did you not state that to begin with...you post implied that as a result of offering lower then the bottom is falling out of the market


My my, how noble of you...although I'm sure miju is big enough to think & act for him/herself

ninsaga
Click to expand...

Hey, that's not fair. You didn't have a 'go' at me!? I've read and re-read your post above and I'm definitely not quoted. :( Feeling very rejected...

Off to have a cup of tea myself :D

By the way, the asking price for the house nearby me is 900,000. I'll be keeping an eye on that.
 
Eurofan said:
I've found this thread interesting from the start but is there any chance those involved can just call it quits on the bickering about who said what (or just take it to pm?)

It's really clogging up what is a fascinating thread and will continue to be such as the market develops into Winter.

Please?
Click to expand...

Have no problem with that as long as clear facts are being presented... if you'll not, many of my posts have challenged 'facts' which in the end account for nothing

20/20 cut the crap..... regarding this trolling stuff... I've been an active member of this forum for a few years (whilst it was on EZboard).... I have no intention of getting shut off..... you call it trolling.. I call it making light of a situation.

anyways ...on with the fun....
 
Eurofan said:
I've found this thread interesting from the start but is there any chance those involved can just call it quits on the bickering about who said what (or just take it to pm?)
Click to expand...

im most definitely in agreement with this
 
Statistics are fine but need interpretation. The prediction that 10 out of every 100 mortgagees might default (i.e. be unable to continue to meet repayments) and possibly be repossessed does not tap the broader unravelling. Perhaps we need more than conventional statistics for the unravelling which occurs when bubbles burst - I suggest cladistics (chaos) theory fits the circumstances as it models for how small incremental changes across the spectrum build into different eventualities. Does anyone here know if the cladistics model is being used? Applying those forecasts would give a good sense of possible outcomes and equip individuals to avoid the worst effects of a 'crash'.

Wollie said:
(snipped) The report has some useful comments on the housing market.

As part of the assessment of the strength of financial institutions, it looked at the impact of what it called a "range of large but plausible hypothetical shocks". One of the "plausible" shocks examined in the report was a 40% decline in house prices, which takes effect from the beginning of Q3 2006.

(snipped)
Despite all these warnings, the report seems to give Irish financial institutions a reasonably clean bill of health in terms of their ability to survive a collapse in house prices. From my reading of the report, it seems that institutions would be able to withstand a 55% fall in house prices combined with a 10% default ratio.
Click to expand...
 
Chaos theory....sure it's a mess but I'm sure there's a pattern in there somewhere??:confused: :D

I doubt very much if anyone is using cladistics but perhaps they should! Any biologists out there?
 
Last edited:
whathome said:
The market weakened further this week - an agent in Swords told me that they have twice the number of properties for sale this year compared to last. She said that in the last two weeks they had more cancellations than sales!
Click to expand...

That is where the first real price reductions will happen. Those who are in chains will need to sell their properties and with interest replaced by fear the number of potential buyers will have dryed up. Those that bought >3 years will be able to 'afford' to sell at reduced prices. Those that find it hard to imagine a crash have to realise that a house can be sold at 100K less and still realise a profit for the owner.

Wollie said:
I've been reading a report from the IMF, which is an updated assessment of the country's financial system. The report has some useful comments on the housing market.

As part of the assessment of the strength of financial institutions, it looked at the impact of what it called a "range of large but plausible hypothetical shocks". One of the "plausible" shocks examined in the report was a 40% decline in house prices, which takes effect from the beginning of Q3 2006.
Click to expand...

Looks like my predicted xmas crash (localised and only 'true values' ) was not so outlandish afterall. :)
 
2Pack said:
Elegantly put Jeanne

I noted that this weeks Galway Advertiser (main Galway outlet) is chocka with Doughiska properties for the first time ever. I have my beady eye on this area as it is particularly bloated with post 911 specuvesting .

The pattern may be viewed on their website , all the EAs seem to have Ballybrit Heights and/or Túr Uisce type property to offload.

Keep an eye on the PDF edition

[broken link removed]

I am now calling Galway City. The specuvestors have started to dump.
Click to expand...

If investors are starting to get out in Galway this could be an ominous development for prices beyond the Pale. I have noticed in Waterford that there is far more 'For Sale' signs up than one year ago. I recently passed one new development where there was quite a few of them already put back up for sale. I always thought that prices beyond the Pale would fall before they started to go South in Dublin.
 
beattie said:
If investors are starting to get out in Galway this could be an ominous development for prices beyond the Pale.
Click to expand...
Note that this is simply stage one of the correction, a noticeable increase in inventory for sale in areas developed post 2002 , dumped by specuvestors who believe the capital appreciation gravy train is ending.
beattie said:
I always thought that prices beyond the Pale would fall before they started to go South in Dublin.
Click to expand...
Agreed although I consider 'Dublin' to be Greystones to Drogheda and out west to Kildare and Kinnnegad and Navan. Inside that circle will be the last bastion....eg 30 miles out.

Outside that circle is the back of Ballivor....which is doomed.
 
Wollie said:
Despite all these warnings, the report seems to give Irish financial institutions a reasonably clean bill of health in terms of their ability to survive a collapse in house prices. From my reading of the report, it seems that institutions would be able to withstand a 55% fall in house prices combined with a 10% default ratio.
Click to expand...


read the IMF 2006 summary page ONLY on iceland as a benchmark for above - having read you would think iceland has nothing too big to worry about - maybe a few small problems.........

However Icelands interest rate just hit 13.5% and per its CB will go higher....inflation is 8.6% and forecast by its CB to hit 11%

One conclusion would be that IMF views tend to be a little sanitised.
 
phoenix_n said:
That is where the first real price reductions will happen. Those who are in chains will need to sell their properties and with interest replaced by fear the number of potential buyers will have dryed up. Those that bought >3 years will be able to 'afford' to sell at reduced prices. Those that find it hard to imagine a crash have to realise that a house can be sold at 100K less and still realise a profit for the owner.
Click to expand...

You'll find those specuvestors will not quickly accept such price reductions. They will take their houses off the market, do up the kitchen, try a new REA etc. before the new reality sets in and they realise they will have to come down in price to attract buyers.

phoenix_n said:
Looks like my predicted xmas crash (localised and only 'true values' ) was not so outlandish afterall. :)
Click to expand...

What's "true value"? The value is what the market will pay for it. Like politics, all real estate is local so during a crash some areas will be worse affected than others. I doubt this will happen before Christmas. Summer of next year is more likely, especially if the SSIA-fuelled price jumps don't actually materialise.
 
Todays Sydney Morning Herald reveals some
anecdotal evidence about local property prices. The properties that are showing the major decreases are in the commuter belt well outside the city centre....think meath for an Irish refererence.
Another interesting fact is that the papers headline describes it as a 'housing crash' - for the last 18 months the Australian papers have been talking about 'soft landings' and 'slow growth', so sentiment appears to be changing.
Another article for todays paper had the prime minister blaming the state goverments (mostly Labour - his opposition) for the 'housing crash' - the blame game has begun in earnest.
 
bogwarrior said:
Another interesting fact is that the papers headline describes it as a 'housing crash' - for the last 18 months the Australian papers have been talking about 'soft landings' and 'slow growth', so sentiment appears to be changing.
Click to expand...

Its also most interesting that this area is about 50km out of Sydney or 30miles .

Thats about Ballivor is it not or is that Trim , never mind the back of Ballivor??!
 
bogwarrior said:
Todays Sydney Morning Herald reveals some
anecdotal evidence about local property prices. The properties that are showing the major decreases are in the commuter belt well outside the city centre....think meath for an Irish refererence.
Another interesting fact is that the papers headline describes it as a 'housing crash' - for the last 18 months the Australian papers have been talking about 'soft landings' and 'slow growth', so sentiment appears to be changing.
Another article for todays paper had the prime minister blaming the state goverments (mostly Labour - his opposition) for the 'housing crash' - the blame game has begun in earnest.
Click to expand...

From the article "The Herald checked 16 properties in south-western and western suburbs listed at the weekend and found 60 per cent had prices or had attracted offers at a discount to their last sale price."

That is where this thread is of benefit as it has also recorded slow sales and asking prices been reduced.

(p.s. 2pack can we stop this whole Ballivor stuff.....please!)
 
Fewer FTB's in the coming years. As I mentioned before, the last few years has seen a drop in college points because of the looming dip in demographics. A big drop in birth rate in the 80's will result in far fewer FTB's coming through over the next few years.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2006/0821/cao.html

Fewer First Time Buyers equals less demand at a time of huge supply. This could make the crash even more severe.
 
phoenix_n said:
(p.s. 2pack can we stop this whole Ballivor stuff.....please!)
Click to expand...

No. Phoenix and you should not ask me to neither :p

You have a theory that price falls will be general , 40% by christmas kind of stuff.

I have a different theory, namely that outer commuter bands will get it first . I invented the Back of Ballivor as a nominal mid outer (not outer outer) Dublin commuter band area and am very focused on what happens there and thereabouts first. I called it my 2band theory at the time. Bar a strong riposte from a Mullingarianer I have not been challenged with any consistent rigour on that theory so it stands. I would additionally say that the 3 years started about April 06.

I am also minded that these falls will take 3 years to play out, did you notice that many of these Oz properties were being shown relative to 2003 which is consistent with a slower downturn than the 4 month one you have posited.

Finally the examples given in Australia are distress or repo sales .

We kind of agree with each other but not on timing. That Australian article confirms my general theory on banding and that on timing in the one fell swoop so as you can well imagine I am withdrawing NOTHING at this time :D

Do you still expect a 40% fall by end 2006 then because I most certainly do not ??
 
2Pack said:
Do you still expect a 40% fall by end 2006 then because I most certainly do not ??
Click to expand...

I am constantly mis-quoted on this :)

I predict localised falls in values by xmas. For example take House A. Asking price 400K. You know and I know that that is its speculative value rather than its true value. Say we agree on 300K. Now that does not reflect a crash in that house price until the majority of people agree with us. And by xmas i believe more people will be in our camp but that does not mean that the price will suddenly be reduced to 300K. Only on final sale will it. So a crash can happen in the market but not be known about until close of sale. (if that makes sense)

For example at the moment we are experiencing a soft landing (last trickle of buyers) and a reduction in prices but its not being recorded in the media because of the lead time it takes for houses to sell.

BTW rents are beginning to fall as well. Note the variation in prices.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top