Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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bogwarrior said:
Another interesting fact is that the papers headline describes it as a 'housing crash' - for the last 18 months the Australian papers have been talking about 'soft landings' and 'slow growth', so sentiment appears to be changing..
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Here's how I think a soft landing can be achieved for a period in the Irish property market.

The ECB needs to raise rates until house prices in Ireland just start to tip from stagnating to falling. At that point they need to reduce interest rates to reassure investors and buyers.

Now they will have to be very vigilant as we have such regional distortions between Dublin and the rest that the adjustments required for a soft landing in Dublin may crash a region further out.

However if Mr Trichet brings all the economic expertise in the ECB to focus on the issue and is careful in tuning rates it should be achievable.

He will simply have to ignore Eurozone inflation and the resurgent economies of Germany and France.

Thank you in advance Mr. Trichet ! :rolleyes:
 
phoenix_n said:
I am constantly mis-quoted on this :)

I predict localised falls in values by xmas. For example take House A. Asking price 400K. You know and I know that that is its speculative value rather than its true value. Say we agree on 300K. Now that does not reflect a crash in that house price until the majority of people agree with us. And by xmas i believe more people will be in our camp but that does not mean that the price will suddenly be reduced to 300K. Only on final sale will it. So a crash can happen in the market but not be known about until close of sale. (if that makes sense)
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I also predict localised falls by christmas where the asking will be noticeably lower in some areas, never mind the final agreed prices which will be unknown. Noticeable will be 10-20% here and there.

Not 40% though , anywhere, and in fairness I believe I have consistently predicted where I expect to see these falls on a systemic basis and why these areas are at higher risk of a fall than other areas .
 
beattie said:
If investors are starting to get out in Galway this could be an ominous development for prices beyond the Pale.
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In the suburbs of Cork, I'm seeing very little estate agent activity, certainly nothing to suggest that selling season has started.
 
Remix said:
Here's how I think a soft landing can be achieved for a period in the Irish property market.

The ECB needs to raise rates until house prices in Ireland just start to tip from stagnating to falling. At that point they need to reduce interest rates to reassure investors and buyers.

Now they will have to be very vigilant as we have such regional distortions between Dublin and the rest that the adjustments required for a soft landing in Dublin may crash a region further out.

However if Mr Trichet brings all the economic expertise in the ECB to focus on the issue and is careful in tuning rates it should be achievable.

He will simply have to ignore Eurozone inflation and the resurgent economies of Germany and France.

Thank you in advance Mr. Trichet ! :rolleyes:
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Yes Mr Trichet will do everything in his power from stopping the bubble from exploding in the most dynamic economy to ever be seen in Europe. Sure aren't the rest of Europe in thrall with our success.....
 
phoenix_n said:
I predict localised falls in values by xmas. For example take House A. Asking price 400K. You know and I know that that is its speculative value rather than its true value. Say we agree on 300K. Now that does not reflect a crash in that house price until the majority of people agree with us. And by xmas i believe more people will be in our camp but that does not mean that the price will suddenly be reduced to 300K. Only on final sale will it. So a crash can happen in the market but not be known about until close of sale. (if that makes sense)
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Now this is just silly. A crash can occur but nobody will notice until some time later when a crash actually does occur and we do notice.

How about saying that by Christmas buyers will no longer be willing to pay what the people selling are asking for. Eventually the sellers will need to come down in asking price to meet what the market is willing to pay. This will take many months to fully materialise and be reflected in the sale price. However, some people - perhaps under financial pressure or selling in an area with a glut of housing for sale - will be forced to reduce their prices quicker in order to sell.

Forget about all this "true value" nonsense.
 
I read the sydney price falls this morning,Over the last 2-3 years there was talk over hear frpm estate agents,banks etc of a measured housing slowdown-this is the 1st time that I have read statements like 'housing crash' and the facts to back then up ie 40% falls in 2-3 years.

Also the housing crash in sydney is coming from a`lower base than Ireland and house building in Australia is only 145k pa(population 20.5 million)

Irelands' house building projection is 100k this year although population is 20% of Australias'.This is on top of 1.8 million homes per census on a population of only 4.2 million

Ireland will have a worse housing crash than sydney,simple demand and supply will see to that.

The easiest way to analyse any market is to look at supply(housing stock,development land) and demand(demographics,interest rates,affordability,investor return,migration,future earnings growth,employment growth,fiscal policy)
 
macbri said:
I read the sydney price falls this morning,Over the last 2-3 years there was talk over hear frpm estate agents,banks etc of a measured housing slowdown-this is the 1st time that I have read statements like 'housing crash' and the facts to back then up ie 40% falls in 2-3 years.
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I wonder if negative sentiment from other markets such as Australia, US etc. will have an accelerating affect on sentiment here and quicken the pace of the crash.
 
Bedsit said:
I wonder if negative sentiment from other markets such as Australia, US etc. will have an accelerating affect on sentiment here and quicken the pace of the crash.
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I doubt it. Don't forget the Irish market is "different".
 
macbri said:
Ireland will have a worse housing crash than sydney,simple demand and supply will see to that.
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I tend to agree. I was close to buying in 2004 in sydney but was never involved in any real bidding war. Back here earlier this year i got caught up in too many bidding wars to count.

Whilst interest rates rises will put pressure on the sydney market (dont know market outside of nsw) the pure speculative nature of the market here will force the crash earlier.
 
Interest rate rises will have the biggest impact-if Ecb rises rates by another .5% by xmas will definately effect demand.

If not then the crash will be drawn out longer.

Can somebody on here give me an argument why house prices will not go down in the next 2-3 years backed by some statistics-
It seems to be a very 1 sided discussion at the moment.

Another way of asking the question where is the demand going to come from 4 100k houses this year and why is the Irish housing market 'unique' to normal demand/supply economics?
 
phoenix_n said:
the pure speculative nature of the market here will force the crash earlier.
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Hmm. Not by christmas though.

The only Irish market that peaked last year from what I can see and has been in decline ever since is Letterkenny in Donegal.

4 Bed semi , €139k

Modern 3 Bed apartment in centre of town €165k

Hardly a semi over €200k anywhere

Thats what I see happening in all outer commuter belts by mid-end 2007 . The cities will get their big falls falls later on, about 2008.

In the meantime the print media and the property economists will welcome the 'soft landing' while the smarter ones liquidate and put cash in bank :D
 
macbri said:
Interest rate rises will have the biggest impact-if Ecb rises rates by another .5% by xmas will definately effect demand.

If not then the crash will be drawn out longer.

Can somebody on here give me an argument why house prices will not go down in the next 2-3 years backed by some statistics-
It seems to be a very 1 sided discussion at the moment.

Another way of asking the question where is the demand going to come from 4 100k houses this year and why is the Irish housing market 'unique' to normal demand/supply economics?
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see page 62 of this report. [broken link removed]

We have quite a low number of dwellings per 1,000 of population. Therefore demand is high relative to supply.
 
Bedsit said:
Slowing house prices will help crush inflation

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,16849-2320116,00.html

Another interesting article in this weeks Sunday Times
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It seems according to that article and one from the smh posted earlier that folks in the states (where 'gas' is $3.50 a gallon) and in sydney (approx 0.60 euros a litre for petrol) have copped on that their reliance on their cars must change in the future.

Not so in the land of the shoddy houses many miles from everywhere and the small roads clogged with oversized vehicles driven by idiots

from yesterdays sindo:
WHILE the rest of the western world is turning its back on non-environmentally friendly SUV cars, Ireland's love affair with the gas-guzzlers continues as sales here continue to soar.
Amazingly, some models have almost doubled their sales since last year, bucking all the downward trends around the world. New figures from the Society of the Irish Motor Industry (SIMI) show that sales of SUV or 4x4 cars have continued to rise strongly here, while many other countries report adecline.
Whether doing the school run or playing the ultimate soccer parent, it seems Irish drivers are still very much in love with their monster cars, despite ever-increasing fuel costs and the growing environmental debate.
Comparable figures from the UK, the US and several European countries show areduction in SUV sales inthe first seven months ofthis year.
British figures are down by almost 3 per cent, while across the continent the figure is closer to 8 per cent.
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legend99 said:
see page 62 of this report. [broken link removed]

We have quite a low number of dwellings per 1,000 of population. Therefore demand is high relative to supply.
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Did you not note the implications of that table. Ireland jumped from 1.55m to 1.8m very suddenly once the census enumerators went out.

In other words despite the construction of 100k units in 2005 the housing stock increased by 250k between 2004 and early 2006.

150k housing units were found out there by the Census People , just like that :D

This years 100k will bring us to the Euro average, more or less. We have already passed out the UK as you can see , another country very similar to ours in the ownership stakes.

And its no wonder after that report was published in July that construction firms are now rushing to get rid of property by finishing fast. Their assumptions on the actual size of the housing stock were very very wrong.
 
Bedsit said:
Bernanke, Trichet Have to Sacrifice More Jobs to Curb Inflation

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=adN8w9qgRznU&refer=home

Interesting article on Bloomberg today
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My god, the best method these fellas can come up with to reduce inflation is to arbitrarily fire people?

Michael E. Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York, says that up until the mid- 1990s, an increase of 1.5 percentage points in the unemployment rate was enough to bring inflation down 1 percentage point.
``Now, the same reduction in inflation would take a 4 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate,'' he wrote in a report last month.

I suppose the thinking goes that if people aren't getting paid, they can't afford high priced goods. Genuises.
 
2Pack said:
Did you not note the implications of that table. Ireland jumped from 1.55m to 1.8m very suddenly once the census enumerators went out.

In other words despite the construction of 100k units in 2005 the housing stock increased by 250k between 2004 and early 2006.

150k housing units were found out there by the Census People , just like that :D

This years 100k will bring us to the Euro average, more or less. We have already passed out the UK as you can see , another country very similar to ours in the ownership stakes.

And its no wonder after that report was published in July that construction firms are now rushing to get rid of property by finishing fast. Their assumptions on the actual size of the housing stock were very very wrong.
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Note also the 275,000 vacant dwellings in the country according to that report.
 
legend99 said:
Note also the 275,000 vacant dwellings in the country according to that report.
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We know all about that empties figure of 275k but would like your thoughts on the 'finding' of the 100k-150k extra homes out there .

2Pack World News Headline

Irish Census Enumerators discover that 10% of estimated national housing stock appears out of nowhere......just like that :eek:
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How can 100k-150k inhabitable units simply appear ????

In June 2006 , BEFORE the census figures were released. The Dept of Noel Ahern assumed that there were:

"http://www.environ.ie/DOEI/doeipub.nsf/0/daac160e1d73c27d80256f0f003dbc05/$FILE/Bulletin%2005.pdf (Almost 1.7m Housing Units of Housing Stock in 2005)" page 14 of this pdf .

Within days the CSO said it was 1.8M .

However you do it thats a record years building which simply showed up :eek: . Lord God!
 
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