Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

[miju]

He's talking about the housing market statistics that Daft released.

Internet traffic has nothing to do with the housing market anyway. Popularity as a vendor doesn't necessarily mean that more buyers are visiting the site. Don't forget the site is also used for renting.

i know he was but in his / her arrogance didnt even bother to check the link otherwise would have known that.

the website statistics were posted as rebutal from the bulls saying that daft.ie is growing in popularity hence the increase in the amount of properties for sale when in fact daft.ie's traffic seems to stay pretty much the same throughout the whole year which debunks the bulls theory reposes the original question

 

[shanegl]

i know he was but in his / her arrogance didnt even bother to check the link otherwise would have known that.

Then there was no need for this:

put quite simply your talking through your This post will be deleted if not edited to remove bad language , i've been a web developer for years and know the internet business inside out THERE IS NO SCIENTIFIC FORMULA FOR GATHERING RAW TRAFFIC STATISTICS they are what they are plain and simple ,

are you deliberatly being vague to try and confuse what your talking about or what

I'd really like this thread to be kept open

the website statistics were posted as rebutal from the bulls saying that daft.ie is growing in popularity hence the increase in the amount of properties for sale when in fact daft.ie's traffic seems to stay pretty much the same throughout the whole year which debunks the bulls theory

As I said, it may increase in popularity as a vendor for various reasons (costs etc) without an increase in interest from buyers.

 

[Guest107]

the website statistics were posted as rebutal from the bulls saying that daft.ie is growing in popularity hence the increase in the amount of properties for sale when in fact daft.ie's traffic seems to stay pretty much the same throughout the whole year which debunks the bulls theory reposes the original question

I spoke extensively about the implications, as I see them, of Daft in this very thread in July but have since undertaken not to comment on them , for a while !!!!!

I will dredge it all up again come November, I promise

 

[miju]

the daft effect?????



actually, had an interesting conversation with a friend i hadn't seen in ages yesterday, the conversation turned towards property as he mentioned he was buying a new place with his missus (he currently owns a place and so does she) , i asked him on his opinion on where prices will go and his reply was "oh they'll drop really soon but not by alot" to which my reply was "in that case would you not consider selling the two properties now and buy back in when they drop???" i was met with a bit of a blank look followed by the reply "sure i'll see how high they go and when they start to drop then i'll sell" at which point i just simply had to change the topic of conversation

meanwhile he's planning to buy another house now with his missus and between them they'll have three mortgages , irrational isn't the word

 

[Guest107]

Yah

2Packs Daft Effect

 

[beattie]

I know of at least 2 apartment blocks in the Dublin 4 area retained by the builder for private use. These are approx. 600 in total. In another area only 1 block of 5 in the development was occupied but all got census forms, this accounts for another 500 alone and that's just from personal experience.

Where is this development in D4, what will happen when the whole area around Jury's gets redeveloped I wonder...

 

[fatmanknows]

............. what will happen when the whole area around Jury's gets redeveloped I wonder...

IMO Sean Dunne's vision of creating a Dublin Knightsbridge or Manhattan is just that...a dream. It ain't goona happen in the next decade.

Never think people who have previous been very successful are infallible. Bigger brains than Mr Dunne have got it spectacularly wrong in every other property market.

 

[liteweight]

put quite simply your talking through your This post will be deleted if not edited to remove bad language , i've been a web developer for years and know the internet business inside out THERE IS NO SCIENTIFIC FORMULA FOR GATHERING RAW TRAFFIC STATISTICS they are what they are plain and simple ,

Charming, may I suggest you check you're own orifices....you'll propbably find you're head up there!!! Who was talking about gathering raw traffic statistics....not me or anyone else on this thread as far as I know. Just you then...not knowing that raw traffic statistics have nothing to do with the housing market. Are you deliberately trying to blur the edges on this issue??

are you deliberatly being vague to try and confuse what your talking about or what

No offence but being a web designer doesn't give you any authority to spout statistics. Of course statistical software packages are out there. One of which is SPSS!!! How do you think the government bodies get their statistical information?? It's considered a science and I have no inclination to teach you the arts of it on this thread!

I quite happily own no property and to suggest that becuase someone doesnt own a property cant offer an educated opinion is pure ridiculous , in fact in the context of this thread it would be people like me who could perhaps have their finger more on the pulse of sentiment

I don't recall saying that 'people who do not own property' can't offer an educated opinion. My post was in reference to you, making sweeping generalisations without anything to back them up. When you give the impression that these generalisations are backed by statistics then that's another matter!

rather than the jimmy and mary down the road who think they're property tycoons because they're subsidising a tenant in the hope of capital appreciation

Another generalisation. How do you purport to know how many of your 'johnnys and marys are out there?

alot of people ARE burying their heads in the sand with regards to property

How do you know?? You've accused me of this and it couldn't be further from the truth!

as a matter of fact i'm not trying to silence any opposition whatsoever in fact i welcome it otherwise this thread would get boring and not make for a very good debate

Glad to hear it.

ps: you should really stop barking up the wrong tree about statistics or at least understand what the statistics are because i've not posted any other than the website traffic ones

Well perhaps if you had stated that you only posted website traffic, the more enlightened could have passed on their knowledge to you with regard to statistics and their accuracy [/quote]

 

[Maine]

Well said miju. [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]If this thread is locked, we should create another one to talk about personal and government strategies for getting out of this fine mess we've gotten ourselves into. This will be a challenge as Ireland is no longer able to control base lending rates (e.g. the U.S) or devalue its currency (e.g. China) to reduce the carrying cost of debt, deflate the debt and return to economic competitiveness.[/FONT]

Ireland can regain control over all the above - leave the euro but that debate wont be on the table until 2010 or 2011. A key reason for this debate will be that Ireland will need to run big budget deficits of 6% to 8% post 2010 like Japan did which will be forbidden by rules. Ireland entered the euro with our economy in a different cycle to the continent - we should have waited a few years. Not being in the Euro has not harmed the UK.

BOI's 35 yr 100% mortgage reflects trying to get to new younger customers in mid 20s and keep demand ramped up. Like alcopops from the drinks industry except there are limits imposed there by govt. These products push slowdown well into 2007 but mean that demand further out in a slowdown 2009 / 2010 will be reduced.

 

[Guest107]

...and what do you conclude from that?

I said "(quietly)" , thats my conclusion. If you recall the orignal post you queried.

It seems that BoI (quietly) launched the 100% 35 year mortgage this week.

Were I to state the same without a conclusion I would thought I would have said

"BoI launched the 100% 35 year mortgage this week."

I Hope This Helps.

 

[Guest107]

A key reason for this debate will be that Ireland will need to run big budget deficits of 6% to 8% post 2010 like Japan did which will be forbidden by rules.

We are not Italy and will be allowed to run a 6-8% deficit for 3-4 years which is all thats required as the banks take the hit quickly . We will still stop before we hit 60% of GDP unlike the almost bankrupt Italians.

The important thing is to get it over with fast, within 3 years or max 4. Propping it up as it deflates with fiscal sticky plaster is pointless.

BOI's 35 yr 100% mortgage reflects trying to get to new younger customers in mid 20s and keep demand ramped up. Like alcopops from the drinks industry except there are limits imposed there by govt.

LOL , kiddie mortgages to get them young eh.

It really Shows how few properly bankable propositions there are out there .

Next up the lifetime mortgage and the mortgage that will be paid off by the as yet unborn.....thats how far the Japanese went before it went splat in the early 1990s

 

[tententwenty]

Charming, may I suggest you check you're own orifices....you'll propbably find you're head up there!!!

Settle down liteweight. Yes, we all know that Daft stats aren't worth a toss, but theres no need to get personal. Yourself, ninsaga, and steel are the bulls of this thread from what I can see so far, presumambly due to being somewhat exposed yourselves. Your opinions are more than welcome, but it would be better to back them up with actual reasons rather than just shouting for the thread to be closed (which isn't going to happen, since you know the owners of AAM are loving the hit count-why would they kill the golden goose?).

If there are no reasons, then we know you're just panicking.

I mean ninsaga said there that there was no reason for capital depreciation. Back it up or pack it up.

 

[fatmanknows]

Settle down liteweight. Yes, we all know that Daft stats aren't worth a toss, but theres no need to get personal. Yourself, ninsaga, and steel are the bulls of this thread from what I can see so far, presumambly due to being somewhat exposed yourselves. Your opinions are more than welcome, but it would be better to back them up with actual reasons rather than just shouting for the thread to be closed (which isn't going to happen, since you know the owners of AAM are loving the hit count-why would they kill the golden goose?).

If there are no reasons, then we know you're just panicking.

I mean ninsaga said there that there was no reason for capital depreciation. Back it up or pack it up.

Hear hear, twentytwenty

 

[Jeanne]

There have been some silly stats put forward which I have challanged ie.... the 'the house down the road from me hasn't sold for 5 weeks so that means that the bottom is falling out of the market' -type threads

On a few occasions I have noted on this thread that a house near me in Dublin 14 has been on the market since May. This is a fact and very relevant to the topic at hand. It does not necessarily mean the bottom is falling out of the market but, to my mind, it does indicdate that there is a cooling in the property market that is not just seasonal. It's unusual for a house in this area to be on the market for 3.5 months without some movement. I don't believe you are correct in dismissing this type of information. We are all observing the market at this time and any change is worth noting.

 

[ninsaga]

There has always been property that did not move or was slow to move...always has been always will be.....not to peoples taste, needs interior work, failed engineers report etc etc. This is also the slower season. How many properties have you seen that have scarcely been in an auctioneers window before it has been snapped up.......all since May I might ask.

ninsaga

 

[thewatcher]

BOI's 35 yr 100% mortgage reflects trying to get to new younger customers in mid 20s and keep demand ramped up. Like alcopops from the drinks industry except there are limits imposed there by govt. These products push slowdown well into 2007 but mean that demand further out in a slowdown 2009 / 2010 will be reduced.

The difference between a 30year 300,000 and a 35year 300,000 mortgage is basically E100 a month or E25 a week (less than any night out),this is simply the banks preying on the young and naive of the country.
The difference in interest that a bank makes between a 30 and 35 year mortgage is huge,the difference to the "customer" or "party to be sucked dry" is miniscule.
For any ftb's out there if you are going to buy,forego the 1 night out to the cinema a week and tell your "friendly" mortgage broker/bank manager to stick his 35yr mortgage.

 

[liteweight]

Settle down liteweight. Yes, we all know that Daft stats aren't worth a toss, but theres no need to get personal. Yourself, ninsaga, and steel are the bulls of this thread from what I can see so far, presumambly due to being somewhat exposed yourselves. Your opinions are more than welcome, but it would be better to back them up with actual reasons rather than just shouting for the thread to be closed (which isn't going to happen, since you know the owners of AAM are loving the hit count-why would they kill the golden goose?).

If there are no reasons, then we know you're just panicking.

I mean ninsaga said there that there was no reason for capital depreciation. Back it up or pack it up.

Consider me settled. However, I wonder why you didn't make any comment to Miju when he/she told me I was talking through my This post will be deleted if not edited to remove bad language!!!!!!!!!! My post was in repy. You make a lot of assumptions, who said I was bullish about the market? I haven't made up my mind yet and like to look at both viewpoints. I know I am certainly not as bearish as most on this thread nor am I over exposed in the property market. So you can forget the panic chestnut.

I have asked for this thread to be closed, once, and that was after Miju contacted a vendor/site, feigning interest in a property, just so that he/she could report back here. I found it childish and unethical then, and I still do.

As to the owners of AAM 'loving the hit count', I would hope that this would not be their priority and that the moderators would take a more ethical stance.

If ninsanga said there was no reason for capital depreciation, I would have to read the post before commenting. As for 'back it up or pack it up', I have yet to see any hard and fast statisical analysis by the bears on this site. Not surprising, it can't be done in a context, or indeed a forum such as this.

 

[liteweight]

Thats 1000 of them. Irrespective of why they are empty they are inhabitable and empty and they overhang the market. Ultimately they will be sold or rented and will help to swamp either of those markets.

They were accurate in April 2006 . 17% of the national housing stock empty is a scandal TBH.

Perhaps I didn't make it clear that these apartments are now occupied, either rented or owner occupied. The reason they were empty, in one instance, was that the builder was awaiting the ESB connection. In effect, these will not swamp the market as they were sold two years ago.

There are places like Carrick on Shannon with swathes and swathes of tax designation empties in them. Wander around some Monday night and see the amount with not lights on.

Places like Enniscrone and Bundoran in the winter ...or indeed in April are full of Seaside Resort scheme empties as well.

Even once you take out the Rural Renewal empties and Seaside Resort empties you are still looking at 250,000 empties nationwide or 15%

I'm sure a lot of these will remain empty. Don't get me wrong, I don't dispute the fact that a lot of property stands empty, even more in the winter months. Large amounts of these were bought to avail of the tax incentives that go with them. I know of at least one investor in this position who is not worried as he only bought it for the 'relief'.

Some places are destroyed by market (not tax) driven holiday homing such as Roundstone in Connemara or Lahinch in Clare or Dunfanaghy in Donegal where much of the property is fallow most of the year.

Completely agree. I was glad to see Donegal county council taking the initiative and banning further building of holiday homes. It was beginning to remind me of the pre Celtic Tiger days, when small towns in the country were deserted because of lack of money. now the opposite is true.

 

[liteweight]

The difference between a 30year 300,000 and a 35year 300,000 mortgage is basically E100 a month or E25 a week (less than any night out),this is simply the banks preying on the young and naive of the country.
The difference in interest that a bank makes between a 30 and 35 year mortgage is huge,the difference to the "customer" or "party to be sucked dry" is miniscule.
For any ftb's out there if you are going to buy,forego the 1 night out to the cinema a week and tell your "friendly" mortgage broker/bank manager to stick his 35yr mortgage.

I think the trap some FTBs fall into is that they imagine they will not be in the property for 35 years and so they take the cheaper route on repayments. I suspect a lot might find that they end up in this property for at least 5 years and they've paid a hefty amount of interest by that time anyway. I agree that they'd be better off to tighten the belt and go for 30 years.

 

[tententwenty]

Consider me settled. However, I wonder why you didn't make any comment to Miju when he/she told me I was talking through my This post will be deleted if not edited to remove bad language!!!!!!!!!! My post was in repy. You make a lot of assumptions, who said I was bullish about the market? I haven't made up my mind yet and like to look at both viewpoints. I know I am certainly not as bearish as most on this thread nor am I over exposed in the property market. So you can forget the panic chestnut.

So he said it first, that makes it okay? We'll have to take your word for it that you aren't exposed on the property market...

I have asked for this thread to be closed, once, and that was after Miju contacted a vendor/site, feigning interest in a property, just so that he/she could report back here. I found it childish and unethical then, and I still do.

Investigative journalists and researchers do that kind of thing all the time. Its neither childish nor unethical, its honest to god front line research, and I say fair play to Miju for doing it.

As to the owners of AAM 'loving the hit count', I would hope that this would not be their priority and that the moderators would take a more ethical stance.

So your definition of "ethics" involves censoring the hundreds of people posting valid opinions and viewpoints on this thread? This is a discussion site about financial affairs, which makes this discussion bang in AAM's remit. Getting more traffic to that end is entirely their priority. If you don't like that, feel free to start your own discussion site.

If ninsanga said there was no reason for capital depreciation, I would have to read the post before commenting. As for 'back it up or pack it up', I have yet to see any hard and fast statisical analysis by the bears on this site. Not surprising, it can't be done in a context, or indeed a forum such as this.

If thats the case then you haven't read much of the thread, nor even that post from Ninsaga which I all but directly quoted. I have seen lists of excellent reasons for bearish sentiments, all of them factual, throughout this and other threads. I have neither the time nor the inclination to repeat them yet again for you.