Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

[Maine]

Does anyone have information on the average age of property purchasers, it will vary between city and country.

Just trying to understand how much evidence there is that demand has been brought forward in the past 12 months by 100% mortgages etc to younger buyers

IMO this may be a factor that has driven the market as banks have in effect created new customers in 2005 / 2006 that would not in normal conditions been customers until say 2007 or 2008.

 

[dochasach]

well said the watcher , instead of constantly calling for the thread to be locked why not counter the arguments with stats , reports of your own and encourage a good healthy discussion from both sides
that is of course if you can find any

Well said miju. I hope this thread and related threads remain open to share information. I'm not a believer in Ireland's ability to defy the laws of economics forever, but I do believe that we can learn something from watching the slow-motion collapse of property bubbles in other markets:
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We are in a position to use this knowledge to cushion our inevitable downturn. Unfortunately much of the damage has been done:

- The government is addicted to and squandered the enormous stamp duty windfall.

- Our competitiveness is suffering. Businesses are leaving Ireland for places where property (and therefore labor) is more affordable.

- A generation is entering the work force at a time when fallow property earns more than hard-working individuals. The value of work is being lost.

- Businesses and farms are being destroyed for the value of the property that underlies them. Walk through ballsbridge or blackrock and you'll see "to let" signs everywhere. The businesses have left the property, the property lies fallow, 'earning' capital appreciation without contributing anything real to the economy.

- A generation is relying on two or more incomes to support mortgage debt. When both parents and possibly grandparents are working to raise money to buy a house, who is minding the children? And with mortgage terms stretching beyond 35 years, will today's children eventually be saddled with multigenerational loans?

- Sprawling exburbs filled with thousands of shoddy, energy inefficient homes are being built. When "ladder chasers" will buy anything just to get on the first rung, builders have little incentive to build quality housing. These substandard houses will be with us for a long time.
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If the "boom" goes on forever have problems, if the boom collapses we have other problems. These problems won't go away if we stop talking about them.

If this thread is locked, we should create another one to talk about personal and government strategies for getting out of this fine mess we've gotten ourselves into. This will be a challenge as Ireland is no longer able to control base lending rates (e.g. the U.S) or devalue its currency (e.g. China) to reduce the carrying cost of debt, deflate the debt and return to economic competitiveness.[/FONT]

You can still find people in bubble denial in parts of the U.S. where inventory has risen several hundred percent and median price has dropped over the past year. I suspect you'll see the same here even when it becomes obvious to the most daft observer that we're popping.

I'll agree that if there is evidence of a collapse in Ireland, we are in very early stages, but from the bear's corner, just in case anyone missed it:

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The Independent Mortgage Advisors Federation have predicted that the property market bubble will burst next year.

The mortgage brokers group have warned there are warning signs of major slowdown in the market that could lead to a fall in house prices in 2007.[/FONT]

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[shanegl]

..

 

[liteweight]

well said the watcher , instead of constantly calling for the thread to be locked why not counter the arguments with stats , reports of your own and encourage a good healthy discussion from both sides

that is of course if you can find any

I notice you are very fond of taking your stats from Daft.ie. To my certain knowledge, Daft.ie have changed their scientific method of calculation (using different tables, since a few months ago). Therefore any stats quoted on the website cannot be used to make comparisons i.e. this year to last year. Their reports on rental/purchase in Ireland can only be used anecdotally!

You can verify this by emailing Daft.ie or making a simple phonecall. You should not presume that you are quoting an accurate statistic without first verifying the accuracy of your source.

 

[ninsaga]

despite that you can run down to Paddy powers now & olace a bet that daft stats will be 'factually' presented - yet again- during the course of this thread.

 

[miju]

well you notice wrong litweight NOT ONCE have I posted anything from daft , the only thing I have posted in relation to daft is an up to date website traffic analysis report that is a very reliable source from my own previous experience with other sites I run in terms of traffic accuracy.

To my certain knowledge, Daft.ie have changed their scientific method of calculation (using different tables, since a few months ago). Therefore any stats quoted on the website cannot be used to make comparisons i.e. this year to last year. Their reports on rental/purchase in Ireland can only be used anecdotally!

And what do they use these scientific method of calculation to measure may I ask? As daft.ie somehow changed the fundamentals of mathematics and decided to change how they calculate something?

since i never really got involved in the daft.ie argument all i'm gonna say is keep sticking your head in the sand and hope it will all go away , OK denial has never worked before but sure go for it anyway and see what happens

 

[liteweight]

despite that you can run down to Paddy powers now & olace a bet that daft stats will be 'factually' presented - yet again- during the course of this thread.

Exactly and you'll probably find a 'census' man in there too!!

 

[liteweight]

well you notice wrong litweight NOT ONCE have I posted anything from daft , the only thing I have posted in relation to daft is an up to date website traffic analysis report that is a very reliable source from my own previous experience with other sites I run in terms of traffic accuracy.

I did not mean to imply that you had posted from Daft. No site is a reliable source on this information if they have not included the FACT that Daft have changed their scientific method of calculation!! Also Daft i.e can only give information based on their own website!! I suggest you take a harder look at the sites you are using because you obviously know nothing about statistics.

..... is keep sticking your head in the sand and hope it will all go away , OK denial has never worked before but sure go for it anyway and see what happens

Are you in the property business at all? How many investment properties do you own?? One, two, PPR?? If not how can you make such comments? What do you back them up with, if you exclude your questionable statistics?? Good eyesight....the house down the road.... If you were talking to one of the stockbrokers on this site, would you argue against stocks and shares based on such flimsy information.

Everyone knows there has to be a correction in the market, but there is no basis in argument for negative equity. Saying that people are in denial, or burying their head in the sand is a 'playground' tactic to silence the opposition.

 

[liteweight]

And what do they use these scientific method of calculation to measure may I ask? As daft.ie somehow changed the fundamentals of mathematics and decided to change how they calculate something?

This is such a shining example of arrogance and ignorance that it deserved a slot of its own!!!! Go back to school for godsake!

 

[room305]

Exactly and you'll probably find a 'census' man in there too!!

This crops up a lot. Daft statistics are worse than useless. I wouldn't put much faith in them.

However that census figure of 275,000 vacant homes is true.

Anyone holding an investment property for which they expect to receive capital appreciation would do well to remember this.

 

[liteweight]

The average age of a house purchaser last year was 32 years of age. This year to date the average is 34. This is from memory so if OP is interested in accurate information check out the ESRI etc.

 

[liteweight]

This crops up a lot. Daft statistics are worse than useless. I wouldn't put much faith in them.

However that census figure of 275,000 vacant homes is true.

Anyone holding an investment property for which they expect to receive capital appreciation would do well to remember this.

I realise the census figure is accurate but it does not take into account how many of these properties are sale agreed, awaiting services before occupation, or indeed, how many are being retained by the builder for his own use i.e. future rental. In inner city areas, it does not take into account, the fact, that large blocks in strategic locations are 'rented' by companies who sublet to corporate tenants from abroad. These apartment would only be occupied sporadically, e.g. when a businessman need to visit the IFC or Google for example. It is often more cost affective for companies to rent in this way rather than pay large hotel bills.

 

[whizzbang]

I realise the census figure is accurate but it does not take into account how many of these properties are sale agreed, awaiting services before occupation, or indeed, how many are being retained by the builder for his own use i.e. future rental. In inner city areas, it does not take into account, the fact, that large blocks in strategic locations are 'rented' by companies who sublet to corporate tenants from abroad. These apartment would only be occupied sporadically, e.g. when a businessman need to visit the IFC or Google for example. It is often more cost affective for companies to rent in this way rather than pay large hotel bills.

How many would you say fall into these "Legitimately empty" categories?

275,000 is an awful lot of properties.

 

[liteweight]

How many would you say fall into these "Legitimately empty" categories?

275,000 is an awful lot of properties.

Agreed, It's impossible to guess how many throughout the country. From my own perspective (and it's only my own), I know of at least 2 apartment blocks in the Dublin 4 area retained by the builder for private use. These are approx. 600 in total. In another area only 1 block of 5 in the development was occupied but all got census forms, this accounts for another 500 alone and that's just from personal experience. These apartments were occupied after the census date. I know these figures are a long way off 275,000 but it is also why I would not consider the census figures as accurate in terms of occupancy.

 

[ninsaga]

Originally Posted by miju
And what do they use these scientific method of calculation to measure may I ask? As daft.ie somehow changed the fundamentals of mathematics and decided to change how they calculate something?

This is such a shining example of arrogance and ignorance that it deserved a slot of its own!!!! Go back to school for godsake!

...going back to my earlier posts...people will only see what they want to see & for someone to pose a stupid question regarding daft.ie somehow changed the fundamentals of mathematics and decided to change how they calculate something ...certainly sums it all up (no pun intended)

 

[miju]

I did not mean to imply that you had posted from Daft. No site is a reliable source on this information if they have not included the FACT that Daft have changed their scientific method of calculation!! Also Daft i.e can only give information based on their own website!! I suggest you take a harder look at the sites you are using because you obviously know nothing about statistics.

put quite simply your talking through your This post will be deleted if not edited to remove bad language , i've been a web developer for years and know the internet business inside out THERE IS NO SCIENTIFIC FORMULA FOR GATHERING RAW TRAFFIC STATISTICS they are what they are plain and simple ,

are you deliberatly being vague to try and confuse what your talking about or what

Are you in the property business at all? How many investment properties do you own?? One, two, PPR?? If not how can you make such comments? What do you back them up with, if you exclude your questionable statistics??
Everyone knows there has to be a correction in the market, but there is no basis in argument for negative equity.

I quite happily own no property and to suggest that becuase someone doesnt own a property cant offer an educated opinion is pure ridiculous , in fact in the context of this thread it would be people like me who could perhaps have their finger more on the pulse of sentiment rather than the jimmy and mary down the road who think they're property tycoons because they're subsidising a tenant in the hope of capital appreciation

Good eyesight....the house down the road.... If you were talking to one of the stockbrokers on this site, would you argue against stocks and shares based on such flimsy information.

........

Saying that people are in denial, or burying their head in the sand is a 'playground' tactic to silence the opposition.

no becuase i know absolutely nothing about stocks i can however recognise theres a major shift happening and alot of people ARE burying their heads in the sand with regards to property

as a matter of fact i'm not trying to silence any opposition whatsoever in fact i welcome it otherwise this thread would get boring and not make for a very good debate

ps: you should really stop barking up the wrong tree about statistics or at least understand what the statistics are because i've not posted any other than the website traffic ones

This is such a shining example of arrogance and ignorance that it deserved a slot of its own!!!! Go back to school for godsake!

so you cant answer the question then i presume , the reason i asked is because i've the funniest feeling your talking about different statistics than the ones I was which really makes you the arrogant / ignorant person and not me , perhaps pay better attention in future

 

[Guest107]

It seems that BoI (quietly) launched the 100% 35 year mortgage this week.

 

[ninsaga]

It seems that BoI (quietly) launched the 100% 35 year mortgage this week.

...and what do you conclude from that?

 

[shanegl]

put quite simply your talking through your This post will be deleted if not edited to remove bad language , i've been a web developer for years and know the internet business inside out THERE IS NO SCIENTIFIC FORMULA FOR GATHERING RAW TRAFFIC STATISTICS they are what they are plain and simple ,

He's talking about the housing market statistics that Daft released.

Internet traffic has nothing to do with the housing market anyway. Popularity as a vendor doesn't necessarily mean that more buyers are visiting the site. Don't forget the site is also used for renting.

I suggest getting back on topic if you want to keep the thread open.

Interesting product launch from BOI. This seems to be the last squeeze of affordability.

 

[Guest107]

Agreed, It's impossible to guess how many throughout the country. From my own perspective (and it's only my own), I know of at least 2 apartment blocks in the Dublin 4 area retained by the builder for private use. These are approx. 600 in total. In another area only 1 block of 5 in the development was occupied but all got census forms, this accounts for another 500 alone and that's just from personal experience.

Thats 1000 of them. Irrespective of why they are empty they are inhabitable and empty and they overhang the market. Ultimately they will be sold or rented and will help to swamp either of those markets.

These apartments were occupied after the census date. I know these figures are a long way off 275,000 but it is also why I would not consider the census figures as accurate in terms of occupancy.

They were accurate in April 2006 . 17% of the national housing stock empty is a scandal TBH.

There are places like Carrick on Shannon with swathes and swathes of tax designation empties in them. Wander around some Monday night and see the amount with not lights on.

Places like Enniscrone and Bundoran in the winter ...or indeed in April are full of Seaside Resort scheme empties as well.

Even once you take out the Rural Renewal empties and Seaside Resort empties you are still looking at 250,000 empties nationwide or 15%

Some places are destroyed by market (not tax) driven holiday homing such as Roundstone in Connemara or Lahinch in Clare or Dunfanaghy in Donegal where much of the property is fallow most of the year.

Nevertheless I will wager that there are 150000 properties empty in areas where there is all year round demand.

By any normal measure of demand thats three years worth of building that will not be done as the properties are finally brought onto the market for disposal in the absence of paper capital gains.