Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

Status
Not open for further replies.
Fergal said:
I mean that when I purchase new property, I put in about 40% capital and get a 60% mortgage. Then rental income covers the montly mortgage payments. I have been doing this for years. However previously I had to stomp up only 20% capital with 80% mortgage.

I don't understand posters who talk about tentants subsidising landlords. If tentants income had always covered the entire purchase, I would own the entire country by now. It is never easy to buy property.
Click to expand...

Then you are completely missing the point of the problem as it exists in the current market. People are not doing this. They are buying property but not at a rate where their rental income covers their mortgage repayments. Just because you do it differently does not mean that everyone is so sensible. The fact that it has changed that you have to put in 40% instead of 20% should be telling you this. There are people whose rental income does not even cover the interest part of their mortgage repayment, and there are people whose rental income doesn't cover their IO mortgage.

Do you think that this is healthy? You probably would reply by saying "well they should put more into the capital side when they are acquiring property" but a lot of would be investors are not actually able to do this. With them out of the market then it is entirely feasible to suggest that property prices would be a little lower and additionally, the supply profile of Irish property would be somewhat different. According to recent figures which have been linked ad infinitum on this site, up to 40% of last year's output was acquired by investors and this in a market of falling or static rents.
 
2Pack said:
This will be an ultra top end development in an ultra top end part of D4. A gated high security community where those who coined it during the boom and had the cop to bank the cash will feel safe .
Click to expand...
I can only imagine the 'sophisticated' advertising campaing lures they would use to flog that.

This has to be the best one yet, I cant get over it: http://www.dundrumpoint.ie/dp_brochure.pdf

Theres this stuff which sounds like nobody I know;
Your lifestyle is not off-the-peg, so why should the design of your home be generic? Cooking an elaborate dinner one evening, ordering in Chinese the next. At the gym in the morning, relaxing with a bottle of wine at night. As comfortable in cocktail wear as you are in your favourite jeans, the heart of living well lies in the details: the unassuming elegance of excellent design, stylish appliances that work hard for you, windows which glide open, flooring and finishes that welcome you home, a space that fits the way you like to live.
Click to expand...
They have a quote from former political prisoner and poet ezra pound (who wrote a book about the sham that is the US federal reserve)

" A REAL BUILDING IS ONE ON WHICH THE EYE CAN LIGHT AND STAY LIT." - Ezra Pound
Click to expand...
what sort of country is this that we live in? has it changed that much that people are so devoid of any interests except property and consumerism? that is whats known as conspicuous consumption

maybe I secretly want a concierge and to shop in harvey nicks ;) - doubt it tho
 
LMAO Langball !

I'm all for good living and celebration but I think it's the fact that the aspirations and delusions wealth are based on
massive borrowing, disappearing fundementals and a transient property bubble that makes this sort of verbage so funny in Ireland.
 
lots and lots of cute chickies in cocktail dresses , do Dundrumeroids not work for a living ???
 
To think they cut down perfectly healthy trees, minding their own business to produce this tat.
 
Duplex - I have never flipped a house. Since the majority of the rental income is used to pay off mortgages, in the short term I am not really in it for the rental income. When I stop investing in new houses, the rental income will start to significantly exceed the mortgage repayments. The rental yield tends to follow interest rates so when yield was high, so too were the repayments.

walk2dewater - You seem to have great skill in investing in non-property related activities. And if you can get your capital to work more effectively in shares or gold or futures then well done and I wish you every success. Who knows, I may be your landlord. I think it is unfair to describe me as a 'sap'. I know property and have been specialising in this market for many years before the boom. Booms may come and go but the houses will still be standing and will provide rental income.

Calina - investors who flip houses are clearly exposed to a sudden loss. If very many investors are doing this then I would agree that the market is unhealthy. My main argument here is that while it has been relatively easy to build up a portfolio until now, the correction has made it less easy. Hence I see forecasts here of a drop of 40% by Christmas as very speculative. If it did happen then I would of course be able to more easily expand my business.

I'm afraid to say that in many (though by no means all) of the bears here seem to be more obsessed with the pending crash than any bull about the future. Just look at how many posts you can see in one day from the same people. Are these people supposed to be working? This is why people with more balanced (less extreme if you prefer) views are glad that the doomsayers are confined only to this thread.

Another observation is that many of the bears assume that the investors are severely lacking in intelligence. One comment from an earlier poster was that I was .lucky'. But I have always factored in effects of sudden drops of up to 30% in value and never leverage beyond that. To assume that you know more that the majority is generally risky and may cause you to miss out on opportunities.
 
A substantial number of landlords in past 3 years are looking not at yields but at capital appreciation.

I happened to be in New York when the Nasdaq went past 5000 and everyone was piling in. It then dropped all the way down to c 1600 and is today below 2200. When sentiment turns on speculative assets then its gets very illiquid.

We also have low cash savings which means if people cannot remortgage and they temporarily fall on hard times even for a few months its going to be difficult to pay the mortgages and the bills.
 
Duplex said:
As this thread is about public sentiment towards the housing market, I thought it might be interesting to see what Google Trends might reveal. It seems that the search for the term 'property' has fallen over the past twelve months in Ireland.



http://www.google.com/trends?q=property&ctab=1&geo=IE&date=all
Click to expand...

Check out the trends for "Daft" - may explain the increase in properties for sale that people love posting about here. Its just a more popular site.

http://www.google.com/trends?q=daft&ctab=1&geo=IE&date=all
 
Fergal said:
Duplex - I have never flipped a house. Since the majority of the rental income is used to pay off mortgages, in the short term I am not really in it for the rental income. When I stop investing in new houses, the rental income will start to significantly exceed the mortgage repayments. The rental yield tends to follow interest rates so when yield was high, so too were the repayments.
Click to expand...

Rental yields tend to follow capital values, rents follow real incomes growth. You have weighed up the risks and seem happy with the results so good luck.
 
SteelBlue05 said:
Check out the trends for "Daft" - may explain the increase in properties for sale that people love posting about here. Its just a more popular site.

http://www.google.com/trends?q=daft&ctab=1&geo=IE&date=all
Click to expand...


Check out 'Spanish Property', fine example of the cyclical nature of speculative markets.

http://www.google.com/trends?q=spanish+property&ctab=1&geo=all&date=all

Or the waning interest in Floridian property;

http://www.google.com/trends?q=spanish+property,+florida+property&ctab=1&geo=all&date=all
 
Worth noting that the Google trends data is backed up with actual market evidence in relation to the Spanish market.

[broken link removed]

Sentiment I guess.
 
Maine
Davy's put the Irish savings rate at 15% which is much higher than US UK, Spain, Aus etc and should act as a cushion as IR rise.
 
searching for irish property would probably have been better , and this trend doesnt track websites it tracks search terms , if you ask me if someone knows the site daft.ie they aint really gonna google it are they that would be pretty damn ehh well daft :)

interesting thing to note with that google trend is that pretty much all the search terms for irish property have actually come from ireland (hmmmmmmmmmmmm)


http://www.google.com/trends?q=irish+property&ctab=1&geo=all&date=allhttp://www.google.com/trends?q=irish+property&ctab=1&geo=IE&date=all
 
miju said:
searching for irish property would probably have been better , and this trend doesnt track websites it tracks search terms , if you ask me if someone knows the site daft.ie they aint really gonna google it are they that would be pretty damn ehh well daft :)

[/quote]

Yes thats the point, searching for daft would indicate new users who just heard about site but didnt know the address. So more search terms for google would suggest a gain in popularity, a gain in popularity would suggest more ads on daft and therefore the figures quoted about daft need to taken in context of a site that is simply more popular.
Click to expand...
 
phoenix_n said:
Check out German Property.

http://www.google.com/trends?q=german+property&ctab=1&geo=all&date=all
Click to expand...

That is insane. Yes a 5 room apartment in berlin is reasonable by Irish standards but like someone here said; it is only of value if you actually want to live there. Even then jobs do not pay that much; that goes some way to explain why rent is so low and why you can get a good meal for 3 euros in many parts of eastern berlin.

If people think it is another 'goldrush' waiting to happen all over again they might find themselves sadly mistaken. It reminds me of the movie where people are scrambling to find the trees that make the big W with the treasure buried underneath!

An american investor recently bought the entire apartment block where a friend of mine lives. That's 40 apartments for 1.2 million euros. I was told that Americans are buying lots of this sort of thing in berlin. Seems like a good idea if you are losing faith in the dollar.

Germany is heavily regulated (no surprises there) and as every amateur investor in ireland should know, tenants have more rights, rent is controlled etc. From having lived there for 2 years I know that when things need to be fixed it can cost quite a lot of money e.g. heating, locks etc. Yes a management company will take care of this for you but as with all services in germany you get efficiency but you pay for it. I would be wary about the hassle and low returns on investment, albeit a small amount.

This realistic article might deter some from dipping their toe in the speculative german waters
[broken link removed]
 
langball said:
That is insane. Yes a 5 room apartment in berlin is reasonable by Irish standards but like someone here said; it is only of value if you actually want to live there.
Click to expand...

Yields on german property are around 6% to 7%. In fact they suggest you dont buy if they are not at least this. Now compare that to yields in Ireland and I know where the insanity lies.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top