Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

[langball]

Very interesting to hear DD said this. Did he give any indication that it would be large or small in scale?

No. I think his exact words were "I did'nt get where I am by being a pessimist but I will give you one piece of advice for next year .. dont buy property in Ireland because there is a correction due" (we were then treated to an apalling comedy improv of his choosing )

 

[househunter7]

the whole set up of the property market is wrong now. It cannot sustain itself. it is horrible now to think that the average working man in his mid 20s when he should be ready to leave his parents home cannot afford to buy a house on his own, like many men on average wages in the 70s and 80s were still capable of buying a house without relying on a wifes salary.

How is there still so many people plunging their money into average 3 bed houses for over €400,000 even now? is this not a total waste, or can they not see it?

 

[liteweight]

It seems churlish to demand that this thread be shut down. The subject under discussion is the most significant financial issue to arise in Ireland in decades. The housing market dominates our economy and the futures of hundreds of thousands of Irish people. I appreciate that an open frank discussion of contentious topic is disagreeable to a small minority; but I think it would be foolish to stop a debate to protect their censorious sensibilities.

I agree that the property market is a most significant financial issue. However, I do not consider people contacting vendors and putting in a false bid as contributing to an 'open', 'frank' debate. Especially when the purpose is simply to report back on AAM with regard to a perceived fall in property prices!!

I am neither churlish nor censorious but I do object to unethical behaviour! Perhaps you should re-read the posts that came before mine!!

 

[miju]

you mean as opposed to when gazumping happens liteweight?

what i did wasn't unethical at all , what vendors / RA's do with gazumping now that's unethical , shoe , other foot etc , etc

it really does work both ways and again as i said before i didn't string the vendor along , it was a simple email enquiry and when the reply came i sent a politely worded email back saying no thanks

 

[Fergal]

Corrections are large changes that address fundamental changes in a market place. They can be up as well as down.

Prices have undergone a correction for the last 10 years. Previously a landlord could buy property and expect his tentants to pay off the mortgage. The correction now means that the landlord also needs to come up with substantial capital (say 40% of the purchase price) in order for rental income to pay the mortgage. So it's not as easy as it used to be to build up your property portfolio.

Unless interest rates rise above 7% and/or unemployment takes a very big hit, the correction will remain in place.

Remember that the term of your 35yr mortgage can be reduced after several years have gone by.

Houses are only expensive the day you buy one.

 

[miju]

so let me get this logic right fergal , the market is currently undergoing a correction but in terms of price rising further / not falling becuase landlords need to subsidise their tenants so the landloard cant build up his property portfolio as easy???????????????? please explain your reasoning behind that little gem (we'll ignore the silly cliche about reducing mortgage )

meanwhile back in reality....................

 

[Bedsit]

Dunne expands portfolio with Hume House swap (11/08/06)

"Property developer Seán Dunne has significantly increased the footprint of his portfolio in Ballsbridge with a deal to acquire the Hume House office block adjoining the Jurys Hotel complex on Pembroke Road."

([broken link removed])

I just wonder as to what makes this guy so bullish on Irish property. He is a big property developer and must have insights into the market, and has spent nearly 400 million in amassing a landbank in Ballsbridge. What does he know that the rest of us have missed?

 

[StoppedClock]

No. I think his exact words were "I did'nt get where I am by being a pessimist but I will give you one piece of advice for next year .. dont buy property in Ireland because there is a correction due" (we were then treated to an apalling comedy improv of his choosing )

At least we know where the smart money isn't going...

 

[Fergal]

so let me get this logic right fergal , the market is currently undergoing a correction but in terms of price rising further / not falling becuase landlords need to subsidise their tenants so the landloard cant build up his property portfolio as easy???????????????? please explain your reasoning behind that little gem (we'll ignore the silly cliche about reducing mortgage )

meanwhile back in reality....................

I inject enough capital so that the tentants rental income covers the mortgage. Have done so for years. Previously it was easy to expand the business. It is less easy now and so I think the correction is nearing an end.

I hear people complaining about 35yr mortgages for small houses. Stepping up repayments to reduce the term is hardly a cliche.

 

[miju]

I inject enough capital so that the tentants rental income covers the mortgage. Have done so for years. Previously it was easy to expand the business. It is less easy now and so I think the correction is nearing an end.

suppose i may as well be blunt here

your not making any sense what so ever , could you perhaps not talk in riddles and spell out exactly what your waffling about

 

[StoppedClock]

suppose i may as well be blunt here

your not making any sense what so ever , could you perhaps not talk in riddles and spell out exactly what your waffling about

I agree, no disrespect Fergal but I cannot follow you at all.

 

[ninsaga]

No. I think his exact words were "I did'nt get where I am by being a pessimist but I will give you one piece of advice for next year .. dont buy property in Ireland because there is a correction due" (we were then treated to an apalling comedy improv of his choosing )

Similar to the stock market dynamics then....

- have many saying that the stock in question is overvalued
- have the analysts give a neutral, hold down grade position
- market gets shaky
- stockholders flee the market
- share value decreases to bargain basement pricing
- market movers buy in & then 'talk up' the share

..... see it from time to time on Bloomberg where some analysts come in a slate a particular company........then market is driven on emotion

 

[walk2dewater]

suppose i may as well be blunt here

your not making any sense what so ever , could you perhaps not talk in riddles and spell out exactly what your waffling about

Miju, Fergal "bought in the 80s", does that explain it?

 

[StoppedClock]

Similar to the stock market dynamics then....

- have many saying that the stock in question is overvalued
- have the analysts give a neutral, hold down grade position
- market gets shaky
- stockholders flee the market
- share value decreases to bargain basement pricing
- market movers buy in & then 'talk up' the share

..... see it from time to time on Bloomberg where some analysts come in a slate a particular company........then market is driven on emotion

I don't think a pronouncement at a company do would have much of an effect on Irish sentiment as a whole (it is certainly no bloomberg), if that was the goal I would assume he could use his profile to get much broader coverage. Sounds to me like a quiet word to hie employees

 

[langball]

Similar to the stock market dynamics then....

- have many saying that the stock in question is overvalued
- have the analysts give a neutral, hold down grade position
- market gets shaky
- stockholders flee the market
- share value decreases to bargain basement pricing
- market movers buy in & then 'talk up' the share

..... see it from time to time on Bloomberg where some analysts come in a slate a particular company........then market is driven on emotion

I see what you are saying but who knows what the guy will do next. I think he was looking at an oil refinery in canada a few months ago according to the sbpost. He got rid of London City airport at a massive profit so the only property I know of that he has is his house on Ailesbury road, his house in Gibraltar and his sandy lane hotel in barbados ... I doubt he will be getting in on the buy to let market any time soon. With nearly 2 billion in the bank he wont need the hassle

 

[Fergal]

I mean that when I purchase new property, I put in about 40% capital and get a 60% mortgage. Then rental income covers the montly mortgage payments. I have been doing this for years. However previously I had to stomp up only 20% capital with 80% mortgage.

I don't understand posters who talk about tentants subsidising landlords. If tentants income had always covered the entire purchase, I would own the entire country by now. It is never easy to buy property.

 

[Guest107]

He is a big property developer and must have insights into the market, and has spent nearly 400 million in amassing a landbank in Ballsbridge. What does he know that the rest of us have missed?

This will be an ultra top end development in an ultra top end part of D4. A gated high security community where those who coined it during the boom and had the cop to bank the cash will feel safe .

Going Forward......like

 

[Duplex]

I mean that when I purchase new property, I put in about 40% capital and get a 60% mortgage. Then rental income covers the montly mortgage payments. I have been doing this for years. However previously I had to stomp up only 20% capital with 80% mortgage.

I don't understand posters who talk about tentants subsidising landlords. If tentants income had always covered the entire purchase, I would own the entire country by now. It is never easy to buy property.

Are you buying with just rental yield in mind Fergal?

Do you remember when rental yields on residential property were in excess of 10%?

 

[walk2dewater]

I mean that when I purchase new property, I put in about 40% capital and get a 60% mortgage. Then rental income covers the montly mortgage payments. I have been doing this for years. However previously I had to stomp up only 20% capital with 80% mortgage.

I don't understand posters who talk about tentants subsidising landlords. If tentants income had always covered the entire purchase, I would own the entire country by now. It is never easy to buy property.

Here’s why ALL of todays landlords are effectively subsidising tenants:

Besides members of the outdoor society people need to live somewhere, right? Essentially, there's two choices, rent or buy.

Ireland at the moment is full of very very nice people. One of these nice people a few years ago bought the property I live in. Ive got a deal with him to let me live in it for a fraction of what a mortgage would cost me. Isnt that nice of him?

Now you might say well Im paying his mortgage arnt I? Well yes of course I am. And you might say well wouldn’t you be better off buying the place yourself then? Well I’m a little short of the current asking price, buts lets say I did have the extra couple hundred grand. So I plonk down the full asking price and I get what, negative 1 or 2% net real return on my money? No thanks, Im up north of 50% in real terms the last 18mths investing in other things.

See Fergal, my landlord is a sap. Even if he owns the place outright, he is still a sap for losing money every day on his capital. If were him I'd sell and put the money to better use. But he wants to subsidise me. Fine by me!! Meanwhile I get to live for peanuts in his fine property, while my money is off doing very very productive things.

 

[StoppedClock]

This will be an ultra top end development in an ultra top end part of D4. A gated high security community where those who coined it during the boom and had the cop to bank the cash will feel safe .

Going Forward......like

So he has spent 400m ammassing landbank in Ballsbridge (does this include the 130m estimate of value of swap?)

Sorry posted in error, still finishing this one off