Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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This poker game is not about a few Bob the builders losing their jobs and house prices falling by 10% - this involves the health of the irish banking sector.

It is about being possibly the first country in the world to have a property recession without any control over its own interest rates. If banks failed in Japan at 0% interest rates then it possible for them to fail in Ireland.
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Most insightful post yet. I too agree. People must understand that if "the crash" does come - the banks are ultimately the most exposed.

Japanese banks have still not fully recovered from their property bubble being popped 15 years ago.

As you say, add to this that the real interest rate (rate minus inflation) in Japan was negative for a prolonged period in the 90's as a combative measure which failed and I shudder at the prospect of a clapped out Irish banking sector teeming with bad debts and no control over monetary policy.
In short, our interest rates will be significantly higher than those an Irish Central Bank would maintain - the complete opposite to the current (albiet changing) environment - this would be a complete economic disaster and would be unprecedented in modern western economic history. (unless it's already occuring elsewhere in the EMU - I haven't been keeping my economic ear to the ground of property markets in mainland europe of late)
 
There's a lot of speculative debate but not a lot of education and understanding as to what the implications are for what is being speculated.


Personally, I'm sitting on the fence on how things will pan out over the next 12-18 months. I think the autumn will be a good barameter for things to come. If the bulls anticipated demand returns, then watch how the tone of this thread changes as the stories of a resurgence in the market start popping up all over the place.
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sorry - couldn't resist :)
 
miju said:
i emailed and while it's not fair to go into figures and the ins and outs of the reply suffice to say i made a very low offer and the reply has confirmed my belief the market is currently undergoing a massive shift and largely towards negative sentiment

(anyone who wants details PM me)
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People on this thread have lost the run of themselves!!! It should be closed. Everything that can be said on the topic HAS been said. The post above is a step too far.
 
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a step too far how exactly, it was one simple email with an offer much like anyone would make on any property and i got a simple answer in return (a simple enquiry if you will) , it wasn't like i was intending to lead the vendor on for a while so as he'd potentially miss out on a sale or anything
 
liteweight said:
People on this thread have lost the run of themselves!!! It should be closed. Everything that can be said on the topic HAS been said. The post above is a step too far.
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So go somewhere else. Shifts in a market like property take months and years, and the daily commentary here is bound to have a certain amount of redundancy, keeping that in mind. The insightful commentary and unique perspectives keep coming regardless of your opinion on the matter. Heres an internet.
 
liteweight said:
People on this thread have lost the run of themselves!!! It should be closed. Everything that can be said on the topic HAS been said. The post above is a step too far.
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I think we both know that if it is closed, like a hydra, another will spring up in its place. There are a significant minority of people on this site who want to discuss this subject and every time a thread is closed, it takes less than a day for someone to start another one. As has been mentioned in Letting off Steam, it's probable better just to keep one open to keep all the property bears occupied. Anyway, all the same arguments would just start from the beginning again.
 
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miju said:
i emailed and while it's not fair to go into figures and the ins and outs of the reply suffice to say i made a very low offer and the reply has confirmed my belief the market is currently undergoing a massive shift and largely towards negative sentiment

(anyone who wants details PM me)
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If you had no real intent in buying then why would you do such a thing? That in itself is injecting a negative sentiment towards the seller.......
 
ninsaga said:
If you had no real intent in buying then why would you do such a thing? That in itself is injecting a negative sentiment towards the seller.......
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To his defence anyone who has put a low offer on a property to be kept in the loop is guilty of the same offence.

Are we seeing a trend of falling (albeit slowing) prices. That is where i think this thread is interesting. Individual posts taken on their own do not merit too much analysis but taken with others do show what the current market is like.
 
It seems churlish to demand that this thread be shut down. The subject under discussion is the most significant financial issue to arise in Ireland in decades. The housing market dominates our economy and the futures of hundreds of thousands of Irish people. I appreciate that an open frank discussion of contentious topic is disagreeable to a small minority; but I think it would be foolish to stop a debate to protect their censorious sensibilities. :mad:
 
ct_roy said:
Most insightful post yet. I too agree. People must understand that if "the crash" does come - the banks are ultimately the most exposed.

Japanese banks have still not fully recovered from their property bubble being popped 15 years ago.

As you say, add to this that the real interest rate (rate minus inflation) in Japan was negative for a prolonged period in the 90's as a combative measure which failed and I shudder at the prospect of a clapped out Irish banking sector teeming with bad debts and no control over monetary policy.
In short, our interest rates will be significantly higher than those an Irish Central Bank would maintain - the complete opposite to the current (albiet changing) environment - this would be a complete economic disaster and would be unprecedented in modern western economic history. (unless it's already occuring elsewhere in the EMU - I haven't been keeping my economic ear to the ground of property markets in mainland europe of late)
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Maine said:
Re above see Davys Stockbrokers Starting Points 15 August 2006 which says that New York hedge funds are already short selling a Irish bank on fears of a slowdown in commercial property lending. The hedge funds may be premature depending on yuor view but these are not stupid people.
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Do you have a link to this ?
 
wjc said:
How many international investors or high net worth individuals like Desmond or Magnier do you see investing in apartments and semi-detached houses in commuterland? With yields of 1-2% how would you expect them to. At the end of the day it will all come down to economic fundamentals. The only real wealth generated in the property market in the last few years has been the enormous transfer of money from housebuyers ( mostly borrowed ) to developers and development land owners. The whole thing reminds me of a few of those pyramid schemes in the news earlier in the year. The ones that will be burnt are the last ones in.
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I heard Desmond give a speech at xmas to a few hundred of his employees (of which I was one) - he advised people not to buy property this year as a correction is coming. I was surprised he would choose such a time to say such a thing but was happy that one of the wealthiest men in the country vindicated my decision to sell. One girl who had just bought a house acted like it was the end of the world; like the crash was already upon us and she was stuck holding the baby. Can DD can see into the future? I don't think so but he makes a lot of smart decisions and he was giving advice for free that night.

Money means nothing in Ireland because the banks are giving it away. They are under pressure to post records profits year on year. A lot of people have no idea of the value of a euro and what it means not to have it - I predict a lot of bankrupt people with massive mortgages on properties not worth near the purchase price (happened to a relation of mine in the uk 15 years ago).

As an aside, I know someone who made 30k in the cork pyramid scheme, he had to screw his brother and father for 5k to get it tho. IMO the property market is just a bigger version of this.
 
langball said:
I heard Desmond give a speech at xmas to a few hundred of his employees (of which I was one) - he advised people not to buy property this year as a correction is coming. I was surprised he would choose such a time to say such a thing but was happy that one of the wealthiest men in the country vindicated my decision to sell. One girl who had just bought a house acted like it was the end of the world; like the crash was already upon us and she was stuck holding the baby. Can DD can see into the future? I don't think so but he makes a lot of smart decisions and he was giving advice for free that night.

Money means nothing in Ireland because the banks are giving it away. They are under pressure to post records profits year on year. A lot of people have no idea of the value of a euro and what it means not to have it - I predict a lot of bankrupt people with massive mortgages on properties not worth near the purchase price (happened to a relation of mine in the uk 15 years ago).

As an aside, I know someone who made 30k in the cork pyramid scheme, he had to screw his brother and father for 5k to get it tho. IMO the property market is just a bigger version of this.
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At least the woman had the chance to sell after xmas if she really beleived his prediction. You dont have to be psychic to forsee a correction, theres limits to amount people can borrow and logic tells you when that point is reached prices wont increase , then if you have a speculator/investor element amounting to 40% of properties its clear that much of this speculative element will dry up reducing demand further while supply is still massive, and so it begins.
 
People who think buying an apartment on the stillorgan dualer for 600k is a good idea should have their head examined. They should see what they would get in Richmond outside London or in Manhattan for the same amount of money, i.e. not something with walls made of plasterboard which are thrown up in a few weeks and will be lucky to last 10 years.

I am embarassed by what has happened in this country in the last few years and have even less respect for the politicans than I had previously. Are there any recent examples of a country who became incredibly 'rich' overnight similar to ireland - would other countries that crave wealth allow it to run amok? How did the countries of eastern europe deal with the price increases in recent years?

Mcwilliams wrote about the spanish empire earlier this year - some of his analogies are interesting - he claims they never really recovered from their gold boom in the 16th century [broken link removed]
 
langball said:
I heard Desmond give a speech at xmas to a few hundred of his employees (of which I was one) - he advised people not to buy property this year as a correction is coming.
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Very interesting to hear DD said this. Did he give any indication that it would be large or small in scale?
 
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