Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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CelloPoint said:
Refute that. When did I move the goalposts on my predictions?
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Well mainly I think it was Phoenix_n, who agreed with your prediction but then claimed this crash would happen in December while taking months to actually materialise.

CelloPoint said:
Until I see a photograph of a substantial amount of 'for sale' signs outside some generic apartment complex/housing estate, I will hold off on saying stuff like 'the crash has begun'.
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CelloPoint said:
Here are my speculative predictions to come about by December 2006:

* commuterland 1 bed flats - 40%
* commuterland 2+ bed flats - 30%
* inner M50 flats and commuterland houses - 25%
* city centre flats - 20%
* middle class suburbia 2 bed houses and townhouses (no management companies) - 15%
* middle class suburbia 3 and 4 bed semi-Ds (no management companies) - 10%

The above predictions are at a macro level. There will of course be micro-factors associated with particular sales in certain areas (embassy belt, seaside, Ballymun etc.).

Further depreciation to come in 2007 with commuterland being hardest hit - greater than 50% price reduction come summer time and a new government in place.

I stand to be corrected. See you all in December.
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CelloPoint said:
Yes, I've nailed my colours to the mast. Please don't misquote me by saying I predict a 'December crash'
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I apologise if the quotes are taken out of context (I don't think they are though) but to see such serious drops by the end of the year, people selling now would need to be accepting substantially reduced offers. Thus far, this isn't happening.
 
walk2dewater said:
Winter 2007 – ECB joins the Feb in pausing rates citing slowdown in France and Germany and 1.35 exchange to the US$. Bullish sentiment roars back
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Not a chance IMO - it would take a massive cut in interest rates to get it moving again. This market is a like walking dead man :eek:

What saved it in 2002 was the ECB move to VERY low rates and government reversing the Bacon measures. There is nothing to save it next January.

This thread is going in circles - would be great to lock it until Sep 17th - one month from now :)
 
room305 said:
RE: the first quote - I still don't think the crash has begun and nowhere have I stated that it has.

RE: the second quote - Yes, this is my prediction

RE: the third quote - this was in response to:
room305 said:
Ah yes, I had forgotten about the impending December crash.

It won't happen but if it did I would definitely buy back in as it would invalidate everything I thought I knew about how housing market corrections work.

Have you thought about what exactly is going to cause this sudden clammer for the exits?
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I believe there will be a huge slowdown in so-called 'investment' property prices by December, the full effects of the crash coming about in early 2007 when PPRs will be affected as well. You must also bear in mind that reduced asking prices for flats by developers cannot be regarded as a fall in prices. A crash, imo, constitutes a price drop across the board.

room305 said:
I apologise if the quotes are taken out of context (I don't think they are though) but to see such serious drops by the end of the year, people selling now would need to be accepting substantially reduced offers. Thus far, this isn't happening.
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There is shakiness in the market at the moment. I'm not surprised by reports on AAM of people selling to rent and taking slightly below asking price to get rid of their properties. Can I ask you why you would 'definitely buy back in' in the event of a property crash? A property crash to me would signal take my savings and get the hell out of this country for fear of having to be in a miserable country full of miserable people with mill-wheels hanging round their necks.
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walk2dewater said:
I’ll do my bit then to get the thread back on track. “My sentiment towards the Irish property market”, by WTTW:

Summer into Autumn 2006 – sentiment does a bit of a wobble. Constant stream of contradictory data from the US. ECB raises rates to 3.5%, while Fed remains paused. Irish bears jump the gun calling a ‘peak’ and ‘imminent crash’. Random, unconfirmed cases of price drops haunt Irish market. Much gnashing of teeth and wringing of hands on RTE/Irish Times/Sundays etc.

Winter 2007 – ECB joins the Fed in pausing rates at 4% citing slowdown in France and Germany and 1.35 exchange to the US$. Bullish sentiment roars back. Bears “proved wrong again”. Mad scramble to get on the ladder and prices ratchet up like never before. Headlines in papers once again proclaim X% a week price rises. This is it, the very last chance for those wanting to get on the property train.

Spring 2007 - Sentiment goes ultra bullish even though FTBs are effectively priced out. …
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So having indentified such an opportunity would you not be willing to commit to the market.
 
walk2dewater said:
I’ll do my bit then to get the thread back on track. “My sentiment towards the Irish property market”, by WTTW:

Winter 2007 – ECB joins the Feb in pausing rates at 4% ............................once again proclaim X% a week price rises. This is the last chance for those wanting to get on the property train.

Spring 2007 - Sentiment goes ultra bullish ..........
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Hear what you say WTTW and very much like your posting style. However I strongly think otherwise about whether there's any more breadth left in the market. The market is exhausted and IMO has already had it's final run - peaked late April with a few of the big red bricks achieving unintelligble amounts. We'll have two more rate rises before year end and more in the 1st quarter of new year. (For those on IO or long term martgages a further 1% increase could amount to a staggering increase of 25% on their current heavy monthly commitment.) The market is 'punched out' and will not sustain itself with the coming rate rises and shed loads of supply yet to come on stream.
 
ninsaga said:
...so how does that translate into what MOST people are doing?
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Well - when you're active in the market it is easy to spot.

- Many properties with no bids or bids way below asking
- Buyers pulling out of deals
- Falling asking prices
- EA's calling me wondering if I would consider making a bid below the asking price
- Going to viewings, nobody else there!
- So many properties coming on that suit us that we can't view them all

The only properties I've seen go sale agreed in the past few weeks have been below or at asking price. Vendors usually expect to achieve above asking.
 
fatmanknows said:
Hear what you say WTTW and very much like your posting style. However I strongly think otherwise about whether there's any more breadth left in the market. The market is exhausted and IMO has already had it's final run - peaked late April with a few of the big red bricks achieving unintelligble amounts.... The market is 'punched out' and will not sustain itself with the coming rate rises and shed loads of supply yet to come on stream.
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You may be right regarding the "big red bricks". I know nothing about the market for them. However I think the market does indeed have another 9 months or so to run at the bottom end. There are still enough desperate FTBs and "canny investors" willing to spend €350k - €500k for their "dream starter home" or simply not to "miss out", or for that "sensible investment". This will keep the show on the road for a bit longer - though it will be a more nervous show.
 
A trend worth watching is the development of new Residential Mortgage Backed Securities (RMBS) markets in emerging economies. Russia, India, China, Korea, Egypt etc. are at the early stages of developing RMBS's possibly providing competition for funds in established markets in Europe and the US.

This report is on the RMBS in Saudi.

http://www.menafn.com/qn_news_story_s.asp?StoryId=1093120725
 
whathome said:
PTSB/ESRI comment from the Independent in February:
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whathome said:
"Permanent TSB's figures are based on mortgages, as are those from the Dept of the Environment. The time-lag on these figures could be as long as a year, particularly in the case of new houses and apartments. This happens when the price is agreed before construction, but the mortgage is not drawn down for some time afterwards. "
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I know I've asked about this one before but if the above is indeed true
how come the last PTSB/ESRI reported the average house price at about
roughly €300k whereas the recent BoI report which reported the average
house price at about roughly €400k.

The BoI report was also based on Dept of the Environment figures. If both
reports are based on Dept of the Environment figures how come they
came to figures which are so far apart for average house price -

€300k v €400k ?
 
CelloPoint said:
I believe there will be a huge slowdown in so-called 'investment' property prices by December, the full effects of the crash coming about in early 2007 when PPRs will be affected as well. You must also bear in mind that reduced asking prices for flats by developers cannot be regarded as a fall in prices. A crash, imo, constitutes a price drop across the board.
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Perhaps you could clarify your prediction. These price drops by December. Are you talking about a percentage drop from the seller's expected sale price, a percentage drop from the current market value, or an annualised loss?

I still fail to see how your prediction doesn't constitute a crash.

CelloPoint said:
There is shakiness in the market at the moment. I'm not surprised by reports on AAM of people selling to rent and taking slightly below asking price to get rid of their properties. Can I ask you why you would 'definitely buy back in' in the event of a property crash? A property crash to me would signal take my savings and get the hell out of this country for fear of having to be in a miserable country full of miserable people with mill-wheels hanging round their necks.
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Someone accepting slightly below the asking price means nothing. I bought two years ago during the gold rush for slightly below the asking price. The two scariest things about property as an investment IMO, are the illiquidity of the market (so you cannot limit your loss the way can with investments in a liquid market) and the requirement for leverage. If we see a massive correction by Christmas it means the market is more liquid than I thought. There were fundamentals underpinning the boom in prices but these were vastly overshot, manifesting into the bubble we now see. This happens quite often in markets but is not as much of a problem if the market can correct.

I am bullish on the long term prospects of gold. The fact that the price has crashed relative to its May peak hasn't changed that for me. My fear for the property market would be that the 'stickyness' of prices would mean the correction would occur in real rather than nominal terms. This effectively leaves prices static in nominal terms with a Mexican stand-off between buyers and sellers. For someone wishing to trade-up (as I would be) this is a horrible situation, leaving you trapped in a home that is no longer suitable for your needs.

Hence my decision to sell now.
 
ivuernis said:
I know I've asked about this one before but if the above is indeed true
how come the last PTSB/ESRI reported the average house price at about
roughly €300k whereas the recent BoI report which reported the average
house price at about roughly €400k.

The BoI report was also based on Dept of the Environment figures. If both
reports are based on Dept of the Environment figures how come they
came to figures which are so far apart for average house price -

€300k v €400k ?
Click to expand...

They're both based on mortgages but the BOI report is based on a mix of DOE & PTSB figures whereas the PTSB/ESRI report is based on their own data. They also have differing views on what the definition of an average house price is.
 
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