Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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Its about mints , al quaida and dyslexia in equal measure , what a bloody bore

A 4 Bed Semi in Mullingar for below €200k , now theres an interesting one coz its been a while since I saw one that low.
 
Best of luck with the sale room305.

Might pop back to take an occasional look now and again but I'm signing off from AAM and this thread now - bye
 
2Pack said:
Its about mints , al quaida and dyslexia in equal measure , what a bloody bore

A 4 Bed Semi in Mullingar for below €200k , now theres an interesting one coz its been a while since I saw one that low.
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That has to be a wind up,i'd say someone's mam and dad are going to hit the roof when they come back from holidays.
A free car thrown in aswell i might make an offer,quick sale before the parents return.
 
whathome said:
The only properties I've seen go sale agreed in the past few weeks have been below or at asking price. Vendors usually expect to achieve above asking.
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and August being a slow time for the market anyway...... how have you taken that into account?
 
ninsaga said:
and August being a slow time for the market anyway...... how have you taken that into account?
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That's a nice easy excuse for the bulls to trot out to explain any signs of a downturn. Maybe if you repeat it often enough it'll come true
 
I simply don't see any slow down in the amount of properties hitting the market.I know we should view the Daft figures with skeptisim but it looks like Navan could be in trouble,have the flippers been caught out !.
 

Some banks will lend this amount as long as you produce a 'Letter of Servicability'.
 
liteweight said:
Some banks will lend this amount as long as you produce a 'Letter of Servicability'.
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Irish banks would lend to a shadow if they could package up the mortgage and sell it on as a Mortgage Backed Security on the money markets. How long this will or can continue is the question.
 
Duplex said:
Irish banks would lend to a shadow if they could package up the mortgage and sell it on as a Mortgage Backed Security on the money markets. How long this will or can continue is the question.
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OK - i can't keep up with all this "oh yes it will" "oh no it won't" stuff. I think it's high time for someone to put their hand up and actually started spelling out to people what the implications for a property market crash are for how the man on the street live their daily lives. Now i've not read all posts in this thread but have done a good job lurking at them since this kicked off and very few if any have actually addressed how issues such as Negative Equity affect Joe Bloggs on the street. There's a lot of speculative debate but not a lot of education and understanding as to what the implications are for what is being speculated.

Perhaps it's time to start new spin off threads addressing these issues? I honestly don't know how anyone has the time to keep up with this thing!

Personally, I'm sitting on the fence on how things will pan out over the next 12-18 months. I think the autumn will be a good barameter for things to come. If the bulls anticipated demand returns, then watch how the tone of this thread changes as the stories of a resurgence in the market start popping up all over the place.

If demand (which is the one uncertain half of the price growth/decline equation - supply will be constant and/or increasing for the next 3-5 years) doesn't bounce as predicted by the bears - the doomsayers voices will grow louder and we'll probably accelerate the downturn - the importance of perception in any potential downturn is huge.

I do take heart that one day Hollywood will probably make a blockbuster on the "Irish Property Market Story" - anyone got some suggestions for a catchy, witty title?
 
ct_roy said:
I do take heart that one day Hollywood will probably make a blockbuster on the "Irish Property Market Story" - anyone got some suggestions for a catchy, witty title?
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Hollywood is, a major documentary is being shot at present based around some specuvestors with wide open eyes gushing away about home much money they made so far and how the sky is the limit. Some of it is shot in Florida where these people have also specuvested.

Its a work in progress of course.
 
My detailed post is my only post

RE sitting on fence quote belongs CT ROY
 
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My 2p for what its worth …..Below is information from central bank plus I roll it forward a year.

In July 2003 mortgage lending to date was c 50,000 million. The interest on this at 2% plus 1% margin was 1,500 million.

July 2006 mortgage lending to date is approx 110,000 million. The interest on this at 3% plus 1% margin is 4,400 million.

At current growth rates it can be projected that by December 2007 approx 150,000 million of mortgages will be borrowed at say 4% plus 1% margin is 7,500 million.

That’s 6,000 million a year or120 million a week extra to be found compared to July 2003 just for interest. What is funding this …… new borrowing which flows around the economy paying wages and taxes.

If only 5% of those mortgage debts were to go bad during the downward cycle whenever it happens that’s 7,500 million plus of bad debts.

Add lending to developers which could easily be of the same size and increasing cost to service.

This poker game is not about a few Bob the builders losing their jobs and house prices falling by 10% - this involves the health of the irish banking sector.

It is about being possibly the first country in the world to have a property recession without any control over its own interest rates. If banks failed in Japan at 0% interest rates then it possible for them to fail in Ireland.

Re above see Davys Stockbrokers Starting Points 15 August 2006 which says that New York hedge funds are already short selling a Irish bank on fears of a slowdown in commercial property lending. The hedge funds may be premature depending on yuor view but these are not stupid people.

The only certainty is the builders will keep building a 100,000 units and keep selling because they can sell at lower prices and still make profit.

A property slowdown would be good for ireland Ltd
 
Maine said:
If only 5% of those mortgage debts were to go bad during the downward cycle whenever it happens that’s 7,500 million plus of bad debts.
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not all of which will be written off fully mind and which will sold as secondary debt in the 10% -50% of face range and some of which has been securitized and sold to ...dare I say...rather gullible Asian investors .

The banks will be hit directly for a few Billion all right but thats a years profit only, they will also sack lots of salespersons to balance the books a tad.

Senior bank people that I know have been crapping themselves about the property lending since about 2003/4 but were afraid to lep off the carousel first. They do not believe they have the people any more to 'manage a downturn' as there are too many tiger cubs in there who only ever saw good times.

Watch the banks import US CEOs and CFOS who will do their dirty for them and pretty fast.
 

i emailed and while it's not fair to go into figures and the ins and outs of the reply suffice to say i made a very low offer and the reply has confirmed my belief the market is currently undergoing a massive shift and largely towards negative sentiment

(anyone who wants details PM me)
 
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