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T
thewatcher
Guest
In order to save the irish economy into the future a severe price correction must occur ! there you go
B
bren2002
Guest
For a couple of months anyway. When there are developments in the market (pardon the pun!) to report it will become interesting again.
CelloPoint
Registered User
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- 75
eh....and what's the conclusion? (something about we are all doomed I think!)
Sell your property now. Upskill, save and prepare to leave this country.
No, I still find it interesting. Someone was calling for its head a while back and if he/she had got its wish we wouldn't have got the contribution from the guy not from this country on his view of where we are at and are going to go.
When the next bulletin from the PTSB/ERSI comes out there will be a clamour from either the bears or bulls to say that they were right!!
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SteelBlue05
Guest
T
thewatcher
Guest
Depends when the data is from,if it's 3 months old i have no doubt it will show a rise,this weeks data might be a different story !.
T
thewatcher
Guest
No one is asking you to post here,if you don't like it just ignore the thread.
It's the quiet before the storm either way,when the selling season begins it will ramp up again.
So when did your bike depreciate over 62% - the day you bought it, the day you sold it or the day you scratched the crossbar? Obviously we just have to take it that the loss was incurred the day you sold it.
CelloPoint is predicting major price drops by Christmas. You agree with him but say we just won't notice these drops until several months later when the properties are actually sold. I think that is just plain ridiculous and you should both stop trying to move the goalposts on your predictions.
How many international investors or high net worth individuals like Desmond or Magnier do you see investing in apartments and semi-detached houses in commuterland? With yields of 1-2% how would you expect them to. At the end of the day it will all come down to economic fundamentals. The only real wealth generated in the property market in the last few years has been the enormous transfer of money from housebuyers ( mostly borrowed ) to developers and development land owners. The whole thing reminds me of a few of those pyramid schemes in the news earlier in the year. The ones that will be burnt are the last ones in.
The next report may show a rise as it doesn't represent current market activity.
The ESRI/PTSB report is based on mortgages drawn down when final contracts are signed. This means that there is approx 10 week lag on sale agreed prices. Add another month for report preparation and you have data that is three to four months old at the time of release.
.... ANyone keeping a running count of the number of cliches have been used in tis thread... (just doing my bit there Calina to make your day
Interest rates poll on unison : http://unison.ie/polls/index.php3?ident=Irish Independent&mypollid=2473
The Comments below it are interesting too.
The Comments below it are interesting too.
P
phoenix_n
Guest
Dont know what bee is in your bonnet but i'm not interested.
G'luck with your sale, hope all goes as planned.
PTSB/ESRI comment from the Independent in February:
"Permanent TSB's figures are based on mortgages, as are those from the Dept of the Environment. The time-lag on these figures could be as long as a year, particularly in the case of new houses and apartments. This happens when the price is agreed before construction, but the mortgage is not drawn down for some time afterwards. "
"Permanent TSB's figures are based on mortgages, as are those from the Dept of the Environment. The time-lag on these figures could be as long as a year, particularly in the case of new houses and apartments. This happens when the price is agreed before construction, but the mortgage is not drawn down for some time afterwards. "
CelloPoint
Registered User
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- 75
Refute that. When did I move the goalposts on my predictions?
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walk2dewater
Guest
I’ll do my bit then to get the thread back on track. “My sentiment towards the Irish property market”, by WTTW:
Summer into Autumn 2006 – sentiment does a bit of a wobble. Constant stream of contradictory data from the US. ECB raises rates to 3.5%, while Fed remains paused. Irish bears jump the gun calling a ‘peak’ and ‘imminent crash’. Random, unconfirmed cases of price drops haunt Irish market. Much gnashing of teeth and wringing of hands on RTE/Irish Times/Sundays etc.
Winter 2007 – ECB joins the Fed in pausing rates at 4% citing slowdown in France and Germany and 1.35 exchange to the US$. Bullish sentiment roars back. Bears “proved wrong again”. Mad scramble to get on the ladder and prices ratchet up like never before. Headlines in papers once again proclaim X% a week price rises. This is it, the very last chance for those wanting to get on the property train.
Spring 2007 - Sentiment goes ultra bullish even though FTBs are effectively priced out. Headlines in papers explain FTBs no longer a necessary factor in the property market. “Owners” leverage themselves further to pay each other ever higher sums for property. The number of bearish commentators dwindles to all-time low, even David McWilliams capitulates and says, “an new era of property feudalism has dawned on Western countries”. Sober articles are written how we’re heading for a society divided into permanent camps of owners and renters; those who work for a living and those who own for a living. Stories emerge of ‘rags to riches’ landlords with 100’s of properties, ordinary people pictured smiling in Sunday papers above articles outlining their assets valued at multiples of the national lottery prizes.
However, Irish inflation now at 6% and rising. European inflation averaging 3-4%. ECB slips in one small rate rise amid the “pause” period.
Summer 2007 - Existing landlords start to leverage to the extreme, brokers offer products whereby equity can be withdrawn and held in special accounts to meet monthly debt commitments. Other incredibly clever tax and amortatization schemes limit month payments. “Guaranteed” maximum debt re-payment schemes for property "owners" are advertised. Landlords liabilities to the banks are reported as shrinking as a percentage of their asset-base. Landlords with millions owing on mortgages leverage themselves further and further to snap up property. It is a virtuous cycle, and articles and analysis appear vindicating the sustainability of it. The absence of FTBs means that “someone must own property”, therefore the concentration in a few hands makes sense. More and more exotic products are offered to manage the monthly debt repayment obligations of “owners”.
But, bad news about falling prices in the USA start to become undeniable and UK Halifax index goes y-o-y negative.
With European inflation now persistently tracking higher at 4-5%, ECB decides its pause period is over, starts ratching rates higher. ECB hints at 0.5% increments in their tightening, but conceeds to political pressure to raise it’s price stability bar to 3%. All of this means nothing of course to FTBs without parental/lottery assistance. The subtext of the expanded property supplements is that they are doomed to a life of renting.
Autumn 2007 – Silently, unannounced and unknown, ECB rates hit the point where even the most exotic monthly payment schemes “rollover”, i.e. the debt chairs cannot be shuffled any more, payments simply have to rise. Political crises in Europe as the Fed suggests cutting rates. But ECB defies Brussels and pushes through the Fed rate of 5.75%, “indicating 6 or 7% may be required”. Gold hits US$850/oz.
…….
To be continued…
Summer into Autumn 2006 – sentiment does a bit of a wobble. Constant stream of contradictory data from the US. ECB raises rates to 3.5%, while Fed remains paused. Irish bears jump the gun calling a ‘peak’ and ‘imminent crash’. Random, unconfirmed cases of price drops haunt Irish market. Much gnashing of teeth and wringing of hands on RTE/Irish Times/Sundays etc.
Winter 2007 – ECB joins the Fed in pausing rates at 4% citing slowdown in France and Germany and 1.35 exchange to the US$. Bullish sentiment roars back. Bears “proved wrong again”. Mad scramble to get on the ladder and prices ratchet up like never before. Headlines in papers once again proclaim X% a week price rises. This is it, the very last chance for those wanting to get on the property train.
Spring 2007 - Sentiment goes ultra bullish even though FTBs are effectively priced out. Headlines in papers explain FTBs no longer a necessary factor in the property market. “Owners” leverage themselves further to pay each other ever higher sums for property. The number of bearish commentators dwindles to all-time low, even David McWilliams capitulates and says, “an new era of property feudalism has dawned on Western countries”. Sober articles are written how we’re heading for a society divided into permanent camps of owners and renters; those who work for a living and those who own for a living. Stories emerge of ‘rags to riches’ landlords with 100’s of properties, ordinary people pictured smiling in Sunday papers above articles outlining their assets valued at multiples of the national lottery prizes.
However, Irish inflation now at 6% and rising. European inflation averaging 3-4%. ECB slips in one small rate rise amid the “pause” period.
Summer 2007 - Existing landlords start to leverage to the extreme, brokers offer products whereby equity can be withdrawn and held in special accounts to meet monthly debt commitments. Other incredibly clever tax and amortatization schemes limit month payments. “Guaranteed” maximum debt re-payment schemes for property "owners" are advertised. Landlords liabilities to the banks are reported as shrinking as a percentage of their asset-base. Landlords with millions owing on mortgages leverage themselves further and further to snap up property. It is a virtuous cycle, and articles and analysis appear vindicating the sustainability of it. The absence of FTBs means that “someone must own property”, therefore the concentration in a few hands makes sense. More and more exotic products are offered to manage the monthly debt repayment obligations of “owners”.
But, bad news about falling prices in the USA start to become undeniable and UK Halifax index goes y-o-y negative.
With European inflation now persistently tracking higher at 4-5%, ECB decides its pause period is over, starts ratching rates higher. ECB hints at 0.5% increments in their tightening, but conceeds to political pressure to raise it’s price stability bar to 3%. All of this means nothing of course to FTBs without parental/lottery assistance. The subtext of the expanded property supplements is that they are doomed to a life of renting.
Autumn 2007 – Silently, unannounced and unknown, ECB rates hit the point where even the most exotic monthly payment schemes “rollover”, i.e. the debt chairs cannot be shuffled any more, payments simply have to rise. Political crises in Europe as the Fed suggests cutting rates. But ECB defies Brussels and pushes through the Fed rate of 5.75%, “indicating 6 or 7% may be required”. Gold hits US$850/oz.
…….
To be continued…
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