Brexit

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Brexit is a shambles and will get worse.
None of the major players in the Tory party want to take over the shambles so will be happy to allow TM to carry the can for the moment so they can take over in the year and attempt to blame her for everything.

Another poll might be the right thing to do, but the Tories wont allow it, not now.
Everything might change in a year when they are mired in negotiations and realise the mess they are in

I also think that the DUP will do what NI politicians have done for decades - look for the UK gov to pay them off. The payoff might benefit enough people across all sectors of the NI economy to mollify them for a while. Another can kicked down the road.

On the day after the referendum, I predicted ( here and elsewhere) that the UK would still be a member of the EU in 2020, in some shape or form.
 
I can’t see the Tory/DUP dynamic working. David Cameron said that he wouldn’t countenance going into power with them due to their stance on marriage equality.

The Conservatives have emerged from this election with a degree of credibility solely due to their fantastic performance in Scotland. The only reason for that is the very competent and likable Ruth Davidson. Not only is Ms. Davidson gay, she is also engaged to an Irish Catholic. The 13 seats she brings to the Party are more valuable than the 10 that the DUP brings. To the rest of the people in the UK the DUP are utter dinosaurs. They are incompatible with the moderate and progressive majority in Britain.

Ms May will be gone in the medium term. The big question is will her successor be from the Brexit or remain camp.
 
Purple said:
David Cameron said that he wouldn’t countenance going into power with them due to their stance on marriage equality.
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Cameron isn't Tory leader anymore, because the small c conservatives in his own party forced him to commit to a Brexit referendum as a quid-pro-quo for supporting a same-sex marriage legalisation that he (or more particularly his wife) wanted but that they most certainly didn't want and barely tolerated.

The DUP are more or less indistinguishable from a large and possibly dominant element of the Tory party.
 
T McGibney said:
Cameron isn't Tory leader anymore, because the small c conservatives in his own party forced him to commit to a Brexit referendum as a quid-pro-quo for supporting a same-sex marriage legalisation that he (or more particularly his wife) wanted but that they most certainly didn't want and barely tolerated.

The DUP are more or less indistinguishable from a large and possibly dominant element of the Tory party.
Click to expand...
Well aren't you the ray of sunshine...
 
I think TM underestimates just how unacceptable (IRA supporter) JC would be to the Paisleyites. She didn't have to make any overtures to them, they would always have ensured that she would stay PM.
 
All they need do, even yet, is to hint that they won't support May, and she's toast within her own party.
 
T McGibney said:
All they need do, even yet, is to hint that they won't support May, and she's toast within her own party.
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I think that's right. The Tory party are dead safe here for another 5 years, unless they rashly call another election on the back of good polls. It is TM trying to secure her own position that has produced this unseemly rush to embrace the Paisleyites.

Bringing in Michael Gove is another attempt to hold onto power for with him in the tent it is less likely that Bojo can mount a coup.
 
Purple said:
I can’t see the Tory/DUP dynamic working. David Cameron said that he wouldn’t countenance going into power with them due to their stance on marriage equality.

The Conservatives have emerged from this election with a degree of credibility solely due to their fantastic performance in Scotland. The only reason for that is the very competent and likable Ruth Davidson. Not only is Ms. Davidson gay, she is also engaged to an Irish Catholic. The 13 seats she brings to the Party are more valuable than the 10 that the DUP brings. To the rest of the people in the UK the DUP are utter dinosaurs. They are incompatible with the moderate and progressive majority in Britain.

Ms May will be gone in the medium term. The big question is will her successor be from the Brexit or remain camp.
Click to expand...

that the tories have had a resurgence in scotland ( its probably relatively soft however ) would suggest to me that ( ruth davidson aside ) , scotland is the one place which will be happy to see the DUP supporting the tories , scotland is the spiritual home of northern evangelicals of the kind in the DUP , its always had a calvinist constituency which is completely absent in england and wales for example

im actually happy about the situation , the DUP are quite practical on many issues once they get assurances on some key social issues and they only want those to apply in northern ireland , besides , the catholic population in northern ireland are considerably more socially conservative than the population in the republic and way more so than SF would have you believe based on the sounds they put out about various progressive topics , the demand for marriage equality is not the same in northern ireland as it was down here
 
T McGibney said:
Cameron isn't Tory leader anymore, because the small c conservatives in his own party forced him to commit to a Brexit referendum as a quid-pro-quo for supporting a same-sex marriage legalisation that he (or more particularly his wife) wanted but that they most certainly didn't want and barely tolerated.

The DUP are more or less indistinguishable from a large and possibly dominant element of the Tory party.
Click to expand...

not true , the DUP were never to the right on economic matters , the UUP were the party of business in northern ireland , the DUP are only to the right on social issues , they are if anything quite left wing on the economy , not corbyn left but well to the left of the tories , thats for sure , they are not thatcherites by any measure
 
Leper said:
another referendum never stopped us . . . . I reckon it's coming in the UK.
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Ireland has a sovereign people, the U.K. has a sovereign parliament and therefore U.K. referenda can only ever be advisory! Furthermore there is no mechanism for A50 to be revoked and even if the commission were to accept an attempt to revoked it, it could be challenged at any time by an EU citizen in the ECJ and thus would be an unstable basis going forward.

And at this stage things have moved on and given the kind of reform envisaged I doubt there would be much welcome for their obstructionism going forward.
 
I must admit that I am stunned by how badly the DUP did in their deal with the Tories.

They got increased flexibility to spend an existing €500m, just enough to cover the cash for ash scheme, and a further €2bn over 2 years.

Thats 5% of the existing grant. The DUP put the Tories into government for a 5% pay rise. Unbelievable ! A once in a generation opportunity and they settled for 5%. I thought they would screw far more out of Theresa.

The Tories got to form a government, Theresa gets to be PM, appoint the entire cabinet, all the probably thousands of patronage jobs and the DUP settled for a 5% pay rise. I thought they're made of sterner stuff.
 
The power sharing executive is not being re-established. Direct rule is likely, and this will mean additional money for NI, and what it is being spent on, will be under the focus of WM.
This means for May to stay in power, the money will still have to be forthcoming, but under direction of WM. This will put pressure on Scottish and Welsh conservatives. Why support additional funding to NI at behest of DUP, who are against equal marriage, against language rights.
 
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