Brexit

[galway_blow_in]

No way whatsoever. DUP & May have already agreed a Government (took our lot months). The DUP are instinctively possibly even more Brexit than UKIP (Treaty of Rome and all that).

This is not a good result for ROI. The DUP have paid a certain lip service to no hard border but the reality is that hard border defines them, given a chance they'd probably build a wall.

But watch for sneaky ways in which they will try and stab ROI. For example they will most likely look for a big farmer subsidy post Brexit. This would be a big win-win for them, good for their constituency and very bad for ROI.

i disagree , i think we ( ireland ) are in a considerably better place than two days ago , not only does a reduced tory majority bring the hardline brexiteer wing of the conservatives to heel to some degree , the need for the DUP should reduce the chances of a hard border , despite all the rhetoric and predictable siege mentality sloganeering , the DUP know their own constituency do not want increased barries to trade with the south , UKIP are also not the force they were

stocks have reacted positively today , the pound has also recovered much of what it lost

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

B/S

FPTP vote share is quite comparable with PR first preferences. SF would certainly claim so if it suited them.

Those in favour of the status quo would naturally not want a referendum to change it.

All parties except SF are against a border poll as I stated. You have changed my assertion.

B/S these rebuttals of your points are so obvious that I start to suspect you are trolling me.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

i disagree , i think we ( ireland ) are in a considerably better place than two days ago , not only does a reduced tory majority bring the hardline brexiteer wing of the conservatives to heel to some degree , the need for the DUP should reduce the chances of a hard border , despite all the rhetoric and predictable siege mentality sloganeering , the DUP know their own constituency do not want increased barries to trade with the south , UKIP are also not the force they were

I hope you are right on the border thing, but the primal instinct of Paisleyite backwoodsmen is to build a wall with the devil's playground, the higher the better.
I think you are wrong though on the Brexit political dynamic. One of the reasons May called the election was to minimise the influence of her hard Brexiteers. Instead it has got even worse, she is relying on the DUP which I believe are even more hard Brexit than UKIP.

PS I note from RTÉ that mainstream thinking is along your lines. I hope you are right but there could be a bit of wishful groupthink here.

 

[TheBigShort]

FPTP vote share is quite comparable with PR first preferences.

Yes, but most first preferences don't guarantee election, aside from ignoring the impact of second, third, fourth preferences etc.

Those in favour of the status quo would naturally not want a referendum to change it.

Fair point. But that is to ignore the reality of northern politics.
Those in favour of the status quo in Britain to remain in the EU, namely the Tories, Labour, Lib Dem, SNP succumbed to the demands of an apparent rump in the Tory party and UKIP and afforded, through a democratic principle, to allow the people a say on EU membership.
Typically the DUP certainly don't want to go down that road - but it is not for the DUP to decide, it is for the NI Secretary to decide. Low and behold, considering the democratic principle afforded to the Tory rump and UKIP for a EU referendum, does that offer a framework, consistent with the principle of democracy, consistent with the legally binding GFA, of offering the UI 'rump' in NI the chance of a say on their future through the ballot box? I would say it does.
But critical to all this is the DUPs refusal to accept the outcome of such a referendum.
The DUP does not want a border poll for fear of it back-firing. The DUP simply does not recognize the right of the people to have such a poll. It never signed up to GFA. It does not recognize the right of the people to decide the future of NI, that is the sole prerogative of the British monarch.

All parties except SF are against a border poll as I stated.

All parties (except DUP) support the GFA which recognizes that any change in the constitutional status of NI will be through a border poll.
True, FF, FG, Lab may not support a border poll at this time, but if such a poll was called regardless, they are constitutionally required to support any proposition in favour of uniting Ireland.

B/S these rebuttals of your points are so obvious that I start to suspect you are trolling me.

Far from trolling you, I was hoping that you could think deeper than the headlines.

http://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/new...after-loyalist-murder-in-bangor-35776873.html

This is the reality of DUP thinking. Shoring up support from terrorists in return for guaranteed to block a border poll.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

B/S I do not support the DUP and I do not support talking to gangsters/terrorists. Of course it would be a bit rich for SF or its supporters to wring their hands at such activity.

You make an interesting point about DUP not signing up to GFA. On the border poll thing that is not very relevant, it is the governments who have undertaken to respect any border poll. It is indeed possible that unionists would vigorously oppose a positive outcome of such a poll, possibly some even with violence.

Anyway this is all bit off track since everyone including your good self accepts that a border poll would fail at the present time.

 

[TheBigShort]

i think we ( ireland ) are in a considerably better place than two days ago , not only does a reduced tory majority bring the hardline brexiteer wing of the conservatives to heel to some degree , the need for the DUP should reduce the chances of a hard border , despite all the rhetoric and predictable siege mentality sloganeering , the DUP know their own constituency do not want increased barries to trade with the south

I would broadly agree with this. From the DUP to SF to Dublin, London and Brussels, no-one wants a hard border.
Hard to see anything other than a very soft Brexit now, if at all.
It's beginning to remind me of Y2K bug - no-one knew what it was or what it would do.
In the end, it came to very little.

 

[TheBigShort]

it is the governments who have undertaken to respect any border poll. It is indeed possible that unionists would vigorously oppose a positive outcome of such a poll, possibly some even with violence.

Yes, but it remains to be seen how beholden are the governments to any implied threat of violence from Unionists.
We are supposed to be past all that, but as with Home Rule, the threat of Unionist violence is ever present and a usurpation of democratic principles that we believe are upheld in the GFA. It is quite sinister actually.
I mean, if a rump like UKIP and bunch of Tory dissenters can force a referendum on Brexit, then surely a border poll on the future of NI is not out of the question?

Anyway this is all bit off track since everyone including your good self accepts that a border poll would fail at the present time.

Most people thought Brexit would fail, then Trump, so who knows? We won't know until a poll is held.
Regardless of the outcome, it is the principle of establishing the future of NI through a democratic border poll, that is important.

 

[odyssey06]

Lads, I thihk Brexit is massive enough to keep this thread reserved for it... I'm sure ye would like to continue the border poll discussion nearby

 

[Leper]

The more I read the British newspapers and listen to UK television current affairs programmes the more I reckon the British public used a referendum and a general election as a protest vote which went disastrously wrong. I don't think any fair minded Brit wants to leave the EU.

Let's get back to Brexit. Over the next 18 months or so things are going to get so complicated for the Brits in their negotiating with exiting the EU that their most favourable way forward is to have another referendum on their future in the EU. I believe they will vote to remain within the EU then.

Things will have to play out with compromise on all sides. And whatever way we Irish look at the situation we need the UK within the EU.

 

[Jim2007]

That ship has sailed at this stage. The only way back is to reapply for membership and except the Euro etc. and that is not going to happen.

The mind set in mainland Europe has changed too. We need to get on with reform and that will not be in the direction that the U.K. wants so having them around to continually object to this and that is no longer acceptable to most Europeans.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

Leper Brexit is happening. One of the many messages from the election is the rout of UKIP. This is not out of remorse for what they have done but a recognition that that fight has been won and is no longer relevant. And the majority appeared to have gone to Labour which was technically a Remain party, but clearly no more. In fact the two Remain parties still standing, the SNP and the Lib Dems, had very disappointing outcomes.

But I share your skepticism on the negotiations. The "wogs begin at Calais" faction of the Tory party will be reinforced by the Paisleyites in adopting a No Surrender position. The odds against "no deal" have considerably shortened.

 

[TheBigShort]

Lads, I thihk Brexit is massive enough to keep this thread reserved for it... I'm sure ye would like to continue the border poll discussion nearby

Granted. But as a side, the spotlight on DUP extremist views and terror associations is garnering a lot of negative publicity in Britain.
This deal isn't done yet, and if she can't do one, her mandate to negotiate Brexit is in tatters. I do think the whole Brexit issue is now in jeopardy. There is talk, from Tories, of neither a hard nor soft Brexit, but a 'common mutual understanding' between the UK and EU.
German and France have signalled a change to the treaties.
Sounds like it is all gearing up for a UK/EU Treaty, whether neither party are bound to each other but will apply common rules where required - Brexit in name, but in practical terms, UK/EU laws will be agreed to mutual benefit.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

TM's days are surely numbered but in many ways the Paisleyite dimension is a lucky break for the Tories. Outside UKIP the Paisleyites were the only party for Leave last June. Now if UKIP had 10 seats I would think a "coalition" would be unacceptable. The natural coalition partners are the Lib Dems but with these still totally against Brexit that isn't even considered.

And then from the Paisleyites' viewpoint this is a bit of a no brainer, they don't even need a token quid pro quo. To keep out IRA supporter, JC, is good enough for their constituency.

 

[TheBigShort]

And then from the Paisleyites' viewpoint this is a bit of a no brainer, they don't even need a token quid pro quo. To keep out IRA supporter, JC, is good enough for their constituency.

For political expediency it is a perfect fit. But I suspect TM is simply showing her hand at being best equipped at making the wrong decision at the wrong time.
Mays reliance on the DUP on this occasion is clutching at straws on her part. Two-thirds of Tory membership are reported to want her out. The DUP have enough baggage to equip any potential heave against her with ammunition if needed.
A new leader will emerge, and a new mandate sought. By which time Brexit will be a holy shambles.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

For political expediency it is a perfect fit. But I suspect TM is simply showing her hand at being best equipped at making the wrong decision at the wrong time.
Mays reliance on the DUP on this occasion is clutching at straws on her part. Two-thirds of Tory membership are reported to want her out. The DUP have enough baggage to equip any potential heave against her with ammunition if needed.
A new leader will emerge, and a new mandate sought. By which time Brexit will be a holy shambles.

At last one of your posts with which I can completely agree

 

[TheBigShort]

At last one of your posts with which I can completely agree

Great, be sure to return the favour one day!

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

Will 2017 go down as the year when the end of May came on June 8th?

Does this mean Breggsit will be hard, soft, or maybe scrambled?

 

[Nordkapp]

Think Brexit is scrambled eggs at this stage.

1. Tories weak hand for negotiation

2. 50% of people don't want it

3. City doesn't want it

4. Likely to be a 2nd referendum if Tory government falls

 

[Jim2007]

4. Likely to be a 2nd referendum if Tory government falls

What would the point of an referendum be? It would be non binding and in any case they have a sovereign parliament which mean any newly elected government would have the mandate in any case.

Revoking A50 is not an option, no matter what they think - there is no provision for them to do so nor for the EU to accept it. Any EU citizen could bring a case against it, so the thing would become an even greater farce!

 

[Leper]

. . . . .

Revoking A50 is not an option, no matter what they think - there is no provision for them to do so nor for the EU to accept it. Any EU citizen could bring a case against it, so the thing would become an even greater farce!

another referendum never stopped us . . . . I reckon it's coming in the UK.