Brexit

Status
Not open for further replies.
Two articles from the Irish Times both predicting pain for Ireland in the event of Brexit.

Ireland likely to be Brexit’s silent victim

“Ireland’s high exposure to “Brexit” risk is set out in new research by Oxford Economics, a consultancy linked to the Oxford University business school.

Leaving aside the potential impact on Britain itself, the study finds Ireland is more susceptible than any other country in an exit scenario. Such findings mirror similar research by the London School of Economics published last week. “

Ireland’s biggest companies begin to feel chill wind of ‘Brexit’

“Ireland’s largest companies are beginning to feel the effect of Britain’s division over whether to remain in the European Union.

Concern about the outcome of the UK referendum in June has helped push the pound down 10 per cent against the euro since November. About 60 per cent of Irish companies selling goods overseas are already affected, according to a national trade association.

“Sterling has deteriorated and that’s tough for Irish exporters,” Richard Pym, the English-born chairman of Allied Irish Banks, said in an interview in Dublin this month. “Upon Britain leaving EU, one would anticipate that sterling would come under pressure again. “

Dublin-based Dalata Hotel Group, which operates in London, Manchester and Leeds, warned this month that the UK might generate less revenue as sterling slides. Ryanair Holdings gets about 27 per cent of its sales from the UK and will be the biggest Irish loser along with drinks company C&C Plc and agricultural products company Origin Enterprises, according to securities firm Investec.

“We don’t think it would have an immediate impact on our business,” Ryanair’s chief marketing officer, Kenny Jacobs, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “In the medium and longer term, it would create some uncertainty if Britain were outside of Europe.”

Not all Irish companies will lose out from a depreciating pound, and Paddy Power Betfair, DCC and Grafton could even gain. All three have substantial operations inside and outside the UK and they now report their earnings in pounds.
 
Odyssey,
I think we can agree on this = we don,t know and our musings are gleaned from unsafe info !.
Agreed economics should not be sole arbiter, but its a very strong one, particularly since UK is still in the EU.
Agreed UK may import less from EU , the BIG but , is that EU is the worlds largest trading block ,would it be sensible to drift somewhat from that bloc?
The Uk contributions to EU budget are less than most other large countries in EU, and that is why the leave side have been fairly quiet on that,
what UK would after Brexit have to pay to buy their way into EU , is from my reading a lot more than their present contributions.

We are in no way tied to Tesco eg Lidl/aldi/Dinnes/Supervalu.Nor Boots , I see plenty Pharmacists.

I hope they stay, but it is their choice.
If they go I think they should expect zilch trade favours.
 
There are also potential opportunities for Ireland, RBS for example are reportedly looking to see if the will have to direct any lending to EU states via Ulster Bank.
 
Well I just hope that our Civil Servants are planning to mitigate the problems for Ireland that might arise from a Brexit, and that they don't wake up on 24th of June and ask themselves, "well what does this mean for Ireland"

I hope someone is on the ball.
 
Well I just hope that our Civil Servants are planning to mitigate the problems for Ireland that might arise from a Brexit, and that they don't wake up on 24th of June and ask themselves, "well what does this mean for Ireland"

I hope someone is on the ball.
Like they all were between the time of Lehmans collapse and the night of the bank guarantee :(
 
I was speaking to a senior civil servant recently. He was outlining the CS thinking in regard to Brexit, lots of analysis, lots of ideas, mostly in conjunction with other Euro countries, No sense of urgency or that this would be first and foremost an Irish problem more than a European one.

However it does seem some one at least gets it. Brian Hayes in todays IT.

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/poli...-needs-to-prepare-a-plan-for-brexit-1.2612016

Good to see politicians getting their ideas from AAM, again.
 
Beginning to look like the (leavers) will win.

Our trade with Uk ,seems to involve a lot of stuff not made in Uk , just passing through it.
If so, then other channels will arise quickly if transport/purchasing via Uk becomes a future issue.
It appears we import more from Uk than we export ,so if £stg drops that suits us.
The Leave side want Uk to control its destiny free of EU , but surely they risk Scotlands departure from Uk? Not a great outcome.

a big issue will be the (war) that will erupt in Tories ,that creates uncertainty and on balance will surely harm Uk more than us.

There is a minimum 2 years to sort things and I have no doubt most things will get resolved before that without the houses collapsing.

The sad part is that there was no need to call a Referendum.
The Uk might realise that being an island has its drawbacks ?
 
I didn't expect to see polls like this at the start of the campaign.
But the 'remain' side has been appalling. They are so bad I think they are pushing people to leave rather than pulling them to remain.

People expect nonsense from Nigel Farage.
But the official remain side and Cameron and Osborne have completely destroyed their credibility and reliability - which was one of their main assets - with absolute nonsense scaremongering.
If Cameron believed the things he is saying now, that voting to leave risks war, why on earth did he ever propose a referendum?
Osborne is making up figures out of thin air and he is the Chancellor of the Exchequer. When he does this, it costs votes in the way it does not if it is Boris Johnson or Farage.

I think the 'remain' side are so used to have an easy side from the press, and in debates, that they haven't figured out yet they can't throw up weak arguments and expect to get away with it anymore.

The UK is the world's 5th largest economy.
But apparently it cannot "go it alone" when Canada and Australia do?
The remain side point to Norway & Switzerland as if that is going to scare anybody into voting to remain.

Whatever about the ultimate rights and wrongs of the issue, when it comes to the 'campaign', the remain side are having a nightmare so far.
 
Last edited:
I wonder what will happen if England get knocked out of the Euros early, or even worse if there's a "Thierry Henry" incident against them? Would this impact the referendum? Who in their wisdom picked the date for the referendum during the Euros too - seems a bit risky. However, having said that, maybe more of those who would vote No will be too busy watching the football...
 
A friend who lives abroad gave a rather garbled account of why British ex-pats living in other EU countries, including Ireland, fear a Brexit and will vote to remain in the EU.

Would a Brexit affect them adversely?
 
I think that was a serious mistake not anticipating effect of the euros. It always fires up nationalism. Maybe in the final week if it looks like they are leaving, Brussels will throw in big concessions on migration allowing the Brits to restrict the flow into their country. George soros has said if they leave the european project is finished.
 
Well I just hope that our Civil Servants are planning to mitigate the problems for Ireland that might arise from a Brexit, and that they don't wake up on 24th of June and ask themselves, "well what does this mean for Ireland"

I hope someone is on the ball.

Credit where it is due. The Irish Civil Service could have hardly done a better job so far.

After todays EU summit Donald Tusk has outlined the EUs 3 priorities in the Brexit negotiations as People, Money and Ireland.

There is a long way to go yet but today was a great achievement for Irish diplomacy.
 
Last edited:
There is a long way to go yet but today was a great achievement for Irish diplomacy.

True, even our politicians are for the most part at least demonstrating that they have good grasp of how things work (EU, treaties etc.) unlike those across the water!

I've seen a few comments here in German, questioning if the UK has sufficient an understanding of the subject matter to be able to negotiate in the first place!
 
I've seen a few comments here in German, questioning if the UK has sufficient an understanding of the subject matter to be able to negotiate in the first place!

That just sums up German arrogance and half of what's wrong with the EU in the first place and what prompted the Brits to leave.

The Brits never learned the German trick of ignoring whatever EU laws and treaties they don't like... such as the Dublin convention, the remit of the EU Central Bank, the Growth and Stability pact.
The Brits naively seem to think it they sign up to a treaty they should honour it, instead of just ignoring it like the rest of Europe do.
They'll be better off out of it in the long run.
 
That just sums up German arrogance and half of what's wrong with the EU in the first place and what prompted the Brits to leave.

I never said they were Germans....

The Brits naively seem to think it they sign up to a treaty they should honour it, instead of just ignoring it like the rest of Europe do.

Well I guess that Boris must have a different copy of the treaties then, ya know the one that does not include FMOP and the single market requirements...
 
At least the UK can set its own tax rates without them being threatened or dictated by EU "anybodies".

“Speaking at a news conference in Toulouse on the second last day of campaigning, Mr Macron said the European Commission had taken "a very important decision a few months ago regarding state aid and precisely the current [tax] organisation of Ireland.

"I do believe that what we have to do in the coming years is to reduce the different gaps in social and tax considerations between member states.”
 
At least the UK can set its own tax rates without them being threatened or dictated by EU "anybodies".

You obviously missed the warnings to the U.K. should it attempt to become a tax haven then....

In any case just like Switzerland's bank secrecy, Ireland's tax rates are no longer acceptable... And if the US tax reform is pushed through the game will have truly changed.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top